The Polls - Is Trump Winning even without the Algo

[jem]

1. those look like deceptive denials.
it may be true that the email is not real... but hillary does pay pollsters...

2. This top rated pollster argument you make is bogus.
Any of the polls I see being rated are the ones that come out just before the election. After the herding... Nate Silver told you PPP is a big herder.

So PPP may have called the races well just before the election. That does not mean they are accurate this far out.
Do you understand the point I keep making about herding.

1. Herding makes a pollster untrustworthy this far out.
2. As far as I have ever seen all poll ratings are made after the herding. hence no polls are really tested or rated for accuracy this far out.


http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/how-much-are-pollsters-paid_us_55d70f55e4b00d8137edded5

http://www.mediaite.com/online/dona...iously-fake-hillary-clinton-email-on-twitter/


http://www.dailydot.com/layer8/donald-trump-jr-public-policy-polling-wikileaks-clinton-bribe/




http://www.dailynewsbin.com/news/pp...ters-after-they-fall-for-internet-hoax/25914/

 

[Tony Stark]

Jem,I posted muitlple ppp polls that had Obama ahead more than 6 months before the election.Did you not see that?

 

[Tony Stark]

1. those look like deceptive denials.
it may be true that the email is not real... but hillary does pay pollsters...

Most cadidates pay for polling.That doesn't mean the polling company is crooked and unreliable.

 

[jem]

do you understand the difference between the potential of something merely being coincidence because of binary outcomes vs accuracy.

lets say the NYT reporter is correct and PPP manipulated its sample to always have obama in the lead and Obama won. Does that make them accurate in your book?

Jem,I posted muitlple ppp polls that had Obama ahead more than 6 months before the election.Did you not see that?

 

[Tony Stark]

do you understand the difference between the potential of something merely being coincidence because of binary outcomes vs accuracy.

lets say the NYT reporter is correct and PPP manipulated its sample to always have obama in the lead and Obama won. Does that make them accurate in your book?

How ppp comes to their conclusions isn't something I think about .Mutiple elections over multiple years being one of the most accurate polling companies is all I look at when judging ppp .Unlike the jem algo I try not to over think things,especially something as simple as polling.

 

[jem]

nice dodge. another lefty who refused to answer questions requiring depth of thought.

you prefer ignorance over say Nate Silver's approach.

How ppp comes to their conclusions isn't something I think about .Mutiple elections over multiple years being one of the most accurate polling companies is all I look at when judging ppp .Unlike the jem algo I try not to over think things,especially something as simple as polling.

 

[Tony Stark]

I prefer results over method or methdogly.

Today who does the jem algo have ahead in the race and by how many points?At the end of the election I'd like to compare the jem algo results to ppp's results. Hope you don't mind sharing the jem algo results until the election,I will do the same. Today the TS algo has Hillary + 5 and + 140 in the electoral college.

 

[jem]

1. polls mean nothing right now. so we don't care what anyone's algo says this time of year. whether its the jem algo, yours or nate silvers. nate is taking an average of mostly garbage right now... as he has identified the herding effect which comes a few weeks before the election.

2. we will let you know after the polls unskew.

but... because I don't like ducking questions... if I were to run the algo... the algo has hillary ahead... but inside margin for error. However, we think Trump is showing a ton of momentum and could therefore take the lead. stay tuned.

I prefer results over method or methdogly.

Today who does the jem algo have ahead in the race and by how many points?At the end of the election I'd like to compare the jem algo results to ppp's results. Hope you don't mind sharing the jem algo results until the election,I will do the same. Today the TS algo has Hillary + 5 and + 140 in the electoral college.

 

[achilles28]

I prefer results over method or methdogly.

Today who does the jem algo have ahead in the race and by how many points?At the end of the election I'd like to compare the jem algo results to ppp's results. Hope you don't mind sharing the jem algo results until the election,I will do the same. Today the TS algo has Hillary + 5 and + 140 in the electoral college.

Say whatever you want. Hillary just wasted a 10%+ lead and now the polls have them virtually tied.

Have you bothered to examine this race outside of realclearpolitics.com?

Were you aware Hillary is under 3 current FBI investigations? And has major health problems the media is covering up? That her emails showed she armed terrorists and had American spies killed?

How do you suppose these facts, once brought to light, will effect her polling numbers? And Trumps?

 

[Tony Stark]

1. polls mean nothing right now. so we don't care what anyone's algo says this time of year. whether its the jem algo, yours or nate silvers. nate is taking an average of mostly garbage right now... as he has identified the herding effect which comes a few weeks before the election.

2. we will let you know after the polls unskew.

but... because I don't like ducking questions... if I were to run the algo... the algo has hillary ahead... but inside margin for error. However, we think Trump is showing a ton of momentum and could therefore take the lead. stay tuned.

1.I disagree polls mean nothing right now,they mean a lot.Some people listen to what the polls are telling them and some don't,but polls in early September and even sooner tells you a lot if you choose to listen.The polls in early September 2012 told us loud and clear Barrack Obama was very likely to get re elected.The polls in early September 2008 told us Barrack Obama was very likely our 44th President.

2.Most margins of errors are around 3 points so if the jem algo has Hillary + 3 its doing a good job right now in my opinion.That doesn't tell the whole story though as + 4 points for Obama was equal to + 126 electoral votes and I think its the same with Hillary.