The Polls - Is Trump Winning even without the Algo

Of course I do
achilles28 said:
Say whatever you want. Hillary just wasted a 10%+ lead and now the polls have them virtually tied.

Have you bothered to examine this race outside of realclearpolitics.com?

Were you aware Hillary is under 3 current FBI investigations? And has major health problems the media is covering up? That her emails showed she armed terrorists and had American spies killed?

How do you suppose these facts, once brought to light, will effect her polling numbers? And Trumps?
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Yes I look at the race outside RCP and Hillary's health or something from her shady behavior coming to light worries me.I am very worried she might have a seizure or other medical emergency in the middle of a live debate.I am also worried Assage might have something that could finally derail The Clinton's.So far everything has been thrown at her and nothing has been able to stick. I'm hoping she makes it the next 2 months without a major health problem or catastrophic scandal.
 
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Tony Stark said:
Of course I do


Yes I look at the race outside RCP and Hillary's health or something from her shady behavior coming to light worries me.I am very worried she might have a seizure or other medical emergency in the middle of a live debate.I am also worried Assage might have something that could finally derail The Clinton's.So far everything has been thrown at her and nothing has been able to stick. I'm hoping she makes it the next 2 months without a major health problem or catastrophic scandal.
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Okay. My respect level for you just went up by a few points. Thanks for being objective. I thought you were just a mindless Hillary zombie.
 
http://www.politico.com/story/2016/09/donald-trump-swing-state-227869

Trump's shrinking swing state map

Several battleground states appear unwinnable for the GOP presidential nominee.

By Kyle Cheney and Katie Glueck

09/08/16 05:01 AM EDT






Two months from Election Day, Donald Trump’s swing state map is shrinking.

Interviews with more than two dozen Republican operatives, state party officials and elected leaders suggest three of the 11 battleground states identified by POLITICO — Colorado, New Hampshire and Virginia — are tilting so heavilytoward Hillary Clinton that they're close to unwinnable for the GOP presidential nominee. But Trumpremains within striking distance in the remaining eight states, including electoral giants Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania.

The increasing likelihood that Colorado, New Hampshire and Virginia are out of reach heightens the urgency for the Republican nominee to win those still-competitive states — and to recapture steam in Pennsylvania, where he once looked formidable but now trails by 10 points, according to POLITICO’s Battleground States polling average.....
 
I will explain why the algo had hillary at about the margin for error in many of the polls til Trump recently got his bump.

In the previous presidential election many pollsters skewed their polls in a very obvious manner. They massively over sampled democrats. Then about 3 weeks before the election they herded and the race became tight.

This time some of the polls made it more difficult to tell what they were doing. When revealed, the samples were only slightly democrat rich... so the jem algo only shaves a few points off their published number. putting them at about on average Clinton plus 3 or 4 til about a week ago... when Trump started to come back.

However, we have learned that the polls may now be slanting their results in a more sophisticated manner... they can be over sampling segments of the population. Taking in say more younger voters than would be expected. Now the algo could be adjusted for this... but to do so takes more time than I would want to give it. Especially since these polls could wind up herding or unskewing themselves anyway.
 
jem said:
I will explain why the algo had hillary at about the margin for error in many of the polls til Trump recently got his bump.

In the previous presidential election many pollsters skewed their polls in a very obvious manner. They massively over sampled democrats. Then about 3 weeks before the election they herded and the race became tight.

This time some of the polls made it more difficult to tell what they were doing. When revealed, the samples were only slightly democrat rich... so the jem algo only shaves a few points off their published number. putting them at about on average Clinton plus 3 or 4 til about a week ago... when Trump started to come back.

However, we have learned that the polls may now be slanting their results in a more sophisticated manner... they can be over sampling segments of the population. Taking in say more younger voters than would be expected. Now the algo could be adjusted for this... but to do so takes more time than I would want to give it. Especially since these polls could wind up herding or unskewing themselves anyway.
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Seems that the herding/unskewing made the polls worse.prior to the final month the polls had Obama + 3-6 iirc.than the final month his numbers dropped to the final poll average being +1.He won by +4,closer to the poll numbers before the herding.herding probably only underestimates the democrats numbers.
 
but if I recall after the storm and the hug a the last few poles showed obama up a few points.

its possible the poles got pretty accurate about a week out and Romney really was in the lead... then things moved to Obama because of that storm and the hug.

besides the polls were terrible for the 2014 election.
I think its silly to assume they are not biased.



Tony Stark said:
Seems that the herding/unskewing made the polls worse.prior to the final month the polls had Obama + 3-6 iirc.than the final month his numbers dropped to the final poll average being +1.He won by +4,closer to the poll numbers before the herding.herding probably only underestimates the democrats numbers.
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jem said:
but if I recall after the storm and the hug a the last few poles showed obama up a few points.

its possible the poles got pretty accurate about a week out and Romney really was in the lead... then things moved to Obama because of that storm and the hug.
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I guess it's possible but I doubt a storm and a hug made Romney go from winning to losing by 4 and 126 electoral votes.
 
the rcp average is throughly manipulated.

but if you look at the recent results with many of the top polling companies... there were big swings in Trumps direction.

Tony Stark said:
He didn't move up that much in The RCP average.
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