The Polls - Is Trump Winning even without the Algo

[Tony Stark]

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2016/white_house_watch

Hillary Clinton’s post-convention lead has disappeared, putting her behind Donald Trump for the first time nationally since mid-July.

The latest weekly Rasmussen Reports White House Watch national telephone and online survey shows Trump with 40% support to Clinton’s 39% among Likely U.S. Voters, after Clinton led 42% to 38% a week ago. Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson now earns seven percent (7%) of the vote, down from nine percent (9%) the previous two weeks, while Green Party candidate Jill Stein picks up three percent (3%) support. Three percent (3%) like some other candidate, and seven percent (7%) are undecided. (To see survey question wording,click here.)

Rasmussen Reports.Of all the 2008 and 2012 RCP polls guess which one had McCain and Romney ahead of Obama the most? Guess which poll did so bad in 2008 -2014 elections that RCP kicked them out?

 

[fhl]

The Polls Were Skewed Toward Democrats | FiveThirtyEight
fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-polls-were-skewed-toward-democrats/FiveThirtyEight
Nov 5, 2014


And that's why he got it all wrong. Because the polls were bullshit. Of course they only admit it after the fact.

 

[Tony Stark]

The Polls Were Skewed Toward Democrats | FiveThirtyEight
fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-polls-were-skewed-toward-democrats/FiveThirtyEight
Nov 5, 2014


And that's why he got it all wrong. Because the polls were bullshit. Of course they only admit it after the fact.

That was mid terms that are much harder to get accurate because of Democrat low voter turnout.


The Presidential polls are are much more accurate because Democrats get out to vote in much higher numbers and they do so consistently.Presidential polls had Obama + 0.7,he won by +4

 

[fhl]

That was mid terms that are much harder to get accurate because of Democrat low voter turnout.


The Presidential polls are are much more accurate because Democrats get out to vote in much higher numbers and they do so consistently.Presidential polls had Obama + 0.7,he won by +4

If it's well known that democrats don't get out to vote in the midterms, then why did the pollsters assume a bigger democratic turnout?

Obama had huge crowds at his rallys, just like Trump. Hillary can't drag anyone to hers. I suppose that makes no difference as to how many turn out to vote.

 

[jem]

you keep citing the polls after the (unskewing) or herding effect in the last election.
The polls have not entered the herding stage.

wait til a few weeks out... then you can talk about historical accuracy (as if we have a larger enough sample size that it would matter.)

[/QUOTE]

Rasmussen Reports.Of all the 2008 and 2012 RCP polls guess which one had McCain and Romney ahead of Obama the most? Guess which poll did so bad in 2008 -2014 elections that RCP kicked them out?

 

[Tony Stark]

If it's well known that democrats don't get out to vote in the midterms, then why did the pollsters assume a bigger democratic turnout?

Obama had huge crowds at his rallys, just like Trump. Hillary can't drag anyone to hers. I suppose that makes no difference as to how many turn out to vote.

Bernie had huge crowds too but Hillary got millions of more votes.Crowds mean absolutely nothing.

 

[jem]

you are acting like the polls should not be able to tell that democrat turnout goes down in the midterms.

that problem is completely eliminated using good templates.
low democrat turnout can easily be factored into the ratio of D vs R vs I

That was mid terms that are much harder to get accurate because of Democrat low voter turnout.


The Presidential polls are are much more accurate because Democrats get out to vote in much higher numbers and they do so consistently.Presidential polls had Obama + 0.7,he won by +4

 

[Tony Stark]

you are acting like the polls should not be able to tell that democrat turnout goes down in the midterms.

that problem is completely eliminated using good templates.
low democrat turnout can easily be factored into the ratio of D vs R vs I

I think its because democrats tell the pollsters they are voting for the democratic candidate but don't go out to vote on election day.

 

[achilles28]

That was mid terms that are much harder to get accurate because of Democrat low voter turnout.


The Presidential polls are are much more accurate because Democrats get out to vote in much higher numbers and they do so consistently.Presidential polls had Obama + 0.7,he won by +4

Your presence is required here:

https://www.elitetrader.com/et/threads/nate-silver-election-too-tight-to-call.302471/

 

[gwb-trading]

I think its because democrats tell the pollsters they are voting for the democratic candidate but don't go out to vote on election day.

Guess Democrats are too busy smoking dope and sitting at home on public benefits to make it over to the polling station, eh?