The peak is going to be an extended plateau

Turveyd said:
And scared emotional public also shouldn't be forcing decisions on him.

The same people that are not happy with Sweden for not locking down, when Sweden comes out no worse than anyone else, we don't have to listen to them saying we saved you, no you screwed us, go away!!

Happened in the UK aswell, strong stance, but whiney whiney whiney and he backed down and it's just not bad enough to warrant the damage being done.
More...
You and Dozu, pack up your bags and go live in Sweden. :banghead:
 
Here4money said:
there's a story to that; not that I necessarily disagree, but the growth was a correction on the count "model":
More...

I don't even care about that much, but the daily number hit a record, 2400 for today in the whole country. That is a peak and I expect it to stay around 2000 for 7-10 days... (aka plateau)

If I am right, the number of dead will almost double just in 2 weeks, currently at 26K.
 
Pekelo said:
My problem is that I don't see a master plan. An endgame. Somebody from the government would say,
More...

Finally today the governors started to act, instead of Trump. First Cuomo, then later of Newsom explained their plans to reopen their states. Also multiple states decided to act together instead of waiting for federal guidelines. Good for them!
 
Pekelo said:
I don't even care about that much, but the daily number hit a record, 2400 for today in the whole country. That is a peak and I expect it to stay around 2000 for 7-10 days... (aka plateau)

If I am right, the number of dead will almost double just in 2 weeks, currently at 26K.
More...

NYC is over the peak, likely 3 months to fall to near zero.

But loads of others nearing peak same time, so expect daily deaths to triple as they peak and others take over, 2months before the numbers come down.

Some areas not enough spread so flare straight back up, pushing this out to 6months.

Being fat not good for you!
 
Looking at US data today, been a few days, very few areas, notice the lockdowns you all want, really aren't making much difference at all, waste of time and money.

SWEDEN is the way forward!!!
 
Pekelo said:
Most people on TV expect this to be a quick peak and death rate dropping down fast after that. It may very well be the case, specially for smaller countries.

But for the US, I expect this "peak" to be at least a 2-3 weeks plateau, where the daily death rate will stay in the 1800-2200 range. Why? Because this is a big country and it didn't lock down all at once. So NY state could be already on the downward slope, but Florida and Georgia numbers are still increasing. In short, consecutive peaks.

Then the question remains, at what daily death rate would the country consider safe to reopen for business? 1000 doesn't sound so bad if the ATH was let's say 2200. Or should we wait until we drop below 500? That might be still another 6 weeks away.

My guess is that it is going to be state by state, just like the lock down was. Some not so badly hit and already peaked states will loosen the rules, others will take 2-3 weeks longer.

And 3 weeks after the reopening, the numbers will go up again, although hopefully much slower...
More...

Pekelo,

You're talking as if you live in the United States. Yet, I thought you lived in South America ???

Actually, the more I think about it...I've never seen you talk about living in South America nor anything about South America. Thus, maybe I have you mixed up with someone else.

wrbtrader
 
Pekelo said:
I don't even care about that much, but the daily number hit a record, 2400 for today in the whole country. That is a peak and I expect it to stay around 2000 for 7-10 days... (aka plateau)

If I am right, the number of dead will almost double just in 2 weeks, currently at 26K.
More...
I think the new case count is a better metric at this point as morgue results come in.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top