The peak is going to be an extended plateau

[Atikon]

I am a big Trump supporter but am disappointed at his actions on Corona... how come Fauci is running the show now, just a medicine man, not an elected official... shouldn't be making economic decisions.

You just know that there is some PR Strategist of Breitbart sitting in the White House right now contemplating how to infect Fauci with COVIT19. *lays down Tinfoil hat*

 

[Turveyd]

You just know that there is some PR Strategist of Breitbart sitting in the White House right now contemplating how to infect Fauci with COVIT19. *lays down Tinfoil hat*

We infected all of our leaders in the UK already, nearly worked with the 1, but sadly they all made it

Seems it's not the Plague, who knew

 

[Cuddles]

I suspected it would be a pleateau, but it won't be the case. One need only look at the current country & NY numbers, as well as the warmer weather north hemisphere countries. We could reopen the country and guarantee a flat top however

 

[Pekelo]

I suspected it would be a pleateau, but it won't be the case.

If the DDR (daily death rate) stays around or above 1500 for 2 weeks, would you call it a plateau? And also the downward slope may be slow, let's say dropping only by 100 per day.

 

[Cuddles]

If the DDR (daily death rate) stays around or above 1500 for 2 weeks, would you call it a plateau? And also the downward slope may be slow, let's say dropping only by 100 per day.

I consider a pleateau peak+/-250. If it's continuously dropping, I don't necessarily consider it a flat slope

 

[Pekelo]

a flat slope

is called a plateau

But anyhow, we will check back after today's numbers. I expect 1800+

 

[Pekelo]

we will check back after today's numbers. I expect 1800+

Well, yesterday's number was about 1535, or was it??? (on Worldometer) But this morning Coumo said a number that was at least a hundred bigger for NY state. Then later on they added 3700 to the NY state total death count, because people dying home and shit. They also undercount during weekends.

Long story short, today's US number is 2331 and I usually try to check it around 9 pm. The point is, the plateau is going to be around 2000 and not 1500 as it was implied by the last few days...

 

[Cuddles]

Well, yesterday's number was about 1535, or was it??? (on Worldometer) But this morning Coumo said a number that was at least a hundred bigger for NY state. Then later on they added 3700 to the NY state total death count, because people dying home and shit. They also undercount during weekends.

Long story short, today's US number is 2331 and I usually try to check it around 9 pm. The point is, the plateau is going to be around 2000 and not 1500 as it was implied by the last few days...

there's a story to that; not that I necessarily disagree, but the growth was a correction on the count "model":
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/14/us/coronavirus-updates.html
New York City, already an epicenter of the coronavirus outbreak, sharply increased its death toll by more than 3,700 on Tuesday, after officials said they were now including people who had never tested positive for the virus but were presumed to have died because of it.

 

[zghorner]

Most people on TV expect this to be a quick peak and death rate dropping down fast after that. It may very well be the case, specially for smaller countries.

But for the US, I expect this "peak" to be at least a 2-3 weeks plateau, where the daily death rate will stay in the 1800-2200 range. Why? Because this is a big country and it didn't lock down all at once. So NY state could be already on the downward slope, but Florida and Georgia numbers are still increasing. In short, consecutive peaks.

Then the question remains, at what daily death rate would the country consider safe to reopen for business? 1000 doesn't sound so bad if the ATH was let's say 2200. Or should we wait until we drop below 500? That might be still another 6 weeks away.

My guess is that it is going to be state by state, just like the lock down was. Some not so badly hit and already peaked states will loosen the rules, others will take 2-3 weeks longer.

And 3 weeks after the reopening, the numbers will go up again, although hopefully much slower...

Trump confirmed your suspicion in tonight's press conference that they will lift lock-down state x state.

 

[Noone123]

Probably need to monitor the first state that we lift lockdown for 2nd wave of infection to model how long this will take for us to go back to normal.