The Path to Recovery: How to Re-Open America
- Thread starter gwb-trading
- Start date
What date is the snapshot of the U of W model deaths taken?
I think at this point it is pretty clear the number of deaths due to COVID-19 will be above 100K before the end of June. Possibly before the end of May --- depending of the results of easing the lockdowns.
10 days ago if I recall
The U.S. Is Not Headed Toward a New Great Depression
https://hbr.org/2020/05/the-u-s-is-not-headed-toward-a-new-great-depression
There is no doubt that the coronavirus is driving a macroeconomic meltdown around the world. In the U.S. and elsewhere, heavy job losses will likely drive unemployment figures to levels not seen since the Great Depression. Fiscal efforts to contain the crisis are pushing deficits to levels last seen during World War II. Both developments have spurred fears and commentary that the crisis is spiraling into either a depression or a debt crisis.
(More at above url from the Harvard Business Review)
https://hbr.org/2020/05/the-u-s-is-not-headed-toward-a-new-great-depression
There is no doubt that the coronavirus is driving a macroeconomic meltdown around the world. In the U.S. and elsewhere, heavy job losses will likely drive unemployment figures to levels not seen since the Great Depression. Fiscal efforts to contain the crisis are pushing deficits to levels last seen during World War II. Both developments have spurred fears and commentary that the crisis is spiraling into either a depression or a debt crisis.
(More at above url from the Harvard Business Review)
Yeah, no.
https://www.irishtimes.com/news/wor...und-the-world-claims-trump-1.4248827?mode=amp
US Covid-19 strategy admired around the world, claims Trump
US president’s comments come as deaths pass 76,000 and jobless rate reaches 14.7%
https://www.irishtimes.com/news/wor...und-the-world-claims-trump-1.4248827?mode=amp
US Covid-19 strategy admired around the world, claims Trump
US president’s comments come as deaths pass 76,000 and jobless rate reaches 14.7%
The take of that article is that we may avoid a depression because the FED and Congress acted quickly.
True, they acted quickly to save the big stuff.
But, they are still destroying small business.
We will see how important small business and the jobs and opportunities it creates are.
I don't think the FED or Congress has done nearly enough for the people. Especially in light of the fact the Govt destroyed people's businesses and jobs. Rather than bailing zombie institutions whose assets can be redeployed and be part of new businesses when the economy dictates. (likes airlines and cruise ship corps.)
The money should be in the hands of the people.
UBI
Mortgage payments - not just forbearance
Tax holidays
Subsidized lease payments for small businesses.
Normally I would be against some of the free money
But the govt over reacted to this and destroyed lives.
There are 2 reasons for the govt to help fix up this mess by ordering the FED to give money directly to the people...
.
1. its good economic policy
2. its the right thing to do
Will it be inflationary... yes if the future when the economy recovers.
But, the FED already crated trillions of dollars out of thin air for businesses.
Whats a a measly 10 trillion more for a few years.
At least we all will share the burden equally.
And if the world suffers a massive recession and can't compete for resources... it might not be inflationary for years.
Now in the next 6 months... we are likely to see massive mortgage problems.
The FED was already busy buying up the mortgage backed securites.
That money would have been better spent paying the mortgages for the people in my opinion.
Plus, I don't really like this forbearance concept. Its just delaying the inevitable.
If home prices don't tank... great.
But, if they do...
Mortgages should have been paid by the FED or the Govt for those people who are impacted by the shutdown.
True, they acted quickly to save the big stuff.
But, they are still destroying small business.
We will see how important small business and the jobs and opportunities it creates are.
I don't think the FED or Congress has done nearly enough for the people. Especially in light of the fact the Govt destroyed people's businesses and jobs. Rather than bailing zombie institutions whose assets can be redeployed and be part of new businesses when the economy dictates. (likes airlines and cruise ship corps.)
The money should be in the hands of the people.
UBI
Mortgage payments - not just forbearance
Tax holidays
Subsidized lease payments for small businesses.
Normally I would be against some of the free money
But the govt over reacted to this and destroyed lives.
There are 2 reasons for the govt to help fix up this mess by ordering the FED to give money directly to the people...
.
1. its good economic policy
2. its the right thing to do
Will it be inflationary... yes if the future when the economy recovers.
But, the FED already crated trillions of dollars out of thin air for businesses.
Whats a a measly 10 trillion more for a few years.
At least we all will share the burden equally.
And if the world suffers a massive recession and can't compete for resources... it might not be inflationary for years.
Now in the next 6 months... we are likely to see massive mortgage problems.
The FED was already busy buying up the mortgage backed securites.
That money would have been better spent paying the mortgages for the people in my opinion.
Plus, I don't really like this forbearance concept. Its just delaying the inevitable.
If home prices don't tank... great.
But, if they do...
Mortgages should have been paid by the FED or the Govt for those people who are impacted by the shutdown.
Testing are not good because if you give someone a test you might find out they have Corona and have to count them...
University of Washington professor says it's the 'right time' for some states to consider reopening
https://www.foxnews.com/media/unive...rofessor-coronavirus-state-reopening-measures
Right now is the "right time" for America to consider safely lifting coronavirus restrictions on a case-by-case basis, Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) professor of health metrics sciences Dr. Ali Mokdad urged Saturday.
Appearing on "Cavuto LIVE" with host Neil Cavuto, Mokdad said that the U.S. has to "bring about reopening the country" in a careful manner using the scientific tools at the nation's disposal.
"And, what's going well for us is the increased numbers of testing that allows us to detect cases early on through the tracing and isolation," he noted.
"t's the right time to consider opening," Mokdad added. "Different states are at different [stages] of the virus circulation and they can do it much easier and much faster than other states."
"I recommend [making decisions] based on your public health capacity, to do the tracing and the ability to catch the cases early on," he told Cavuto.
"So," Mokdad continued, "if a state has enough people to do the tracing and has the surveillance system in place -- public health [systems have] to be ready for them -- they can do it."
The University of Washington professor explained that the decisions must be made based on where the virus is, the percentage of new cases cropping up, and how much the public health workforce can control outbreaks in specific locations.
"So, it's a balance between how many people you have right now to do the tracing and how much [testing capacity] you have and where the disease is in your own state," he said.
Mokdad said California is in a "better position" to roll out a reopening than states such as New York -- the epicenter of the virus.
"My state is in a good position right now to consider opening sometime next week," he added.
On Friday, California allowed some lower-risk businesses, public spaces, retail stores and manufacturers to resume operations. On Saturday, restrictions were also lifted for Nevada, Rhode Island and Connecticut.
There are now 39 states that have partially reopened.
https://www.foxnews.com/media/unive...rofessor-coronavirus-state-reopening-measures
Right now is the "right time" for America to consider safely lifting coronavirus restrictions on a case-by-case basis, Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) professor of health metrics sciences Dr. Ali Mokdad urged Saturday.
Appearing on "Cavuto LIVE" with host Neil Cavuto, Mokdad said that the U.S. has to "bring about reopening the country" in a careful manner using the scientific tools at the nation's disposal.
"And, what's going well for us is the increased numbers of testing that allows us to detect cases early on through the tracing and isolation," he noted.
"t's the right time to consider opening," Mokdad added. "Different states are at different [stages] of the virus circulation and they can do it much easier and much faster than other states."
"I recommend [making decisions] based on your public health capacity, to do the tracing and the ability to catch the cases early on," he told Cavuto.
"So," Mokdad continued, "if a state has enough people to do the tracing and has the surveillance system in place -- public health [systems have] to be ready for them -- they can do it."
The University of Washington professor explained that the decisions must be made based on where the virus is, the percentage of new cases cropping up, and how much the public health workforce can control outbreaks in specific locations.
"So, it's a balance between how many people you have right now to do the tracing and how much [testing capacity] you have and where the disease is in your own state," he said.
Mokdad said California is in a "better position" to roll out a reopening than states such as New York -- the epicenter of the virus.
"My state is in a good position right now to consider opening sometime next week," he added.
On Friday, California allowed some lower-risk businesses, public spaces, retail stores and manufacturers to resume operations. On Saturday, restrictions were also lifted for Nevada, Rhode Island and Connecticut.
There are now 39 states that have partially reopened.