The Path to Recovery: How to Re-Open America

Frederick Foresight said:
Those two mosquitoes were very pregnant, and I have no doubt they appreciated your welcoming windows. Burning down houses? I think this analogy has gone astray.
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Actually, now that I have had a few minutes to think about it your mosquito analogy is a good one. Quite a few years ago there was a local golf course which we played. During the hot and humid months there were three holes I remember where the mosquitos were thick, crazy thick. So bad you couldn't even stand over a put. Did this stop us from playing the course? No. We either skipped those holes or there was no f'n around when we played them. Think of a state like that golf course. 3 holes were unplayable, the other 15 no issues at all. A insect here and there. And other courses just a few miles away had no real mosquito problems at all. Should every golf course have been avoided? Every single one statewide? Nationwide?
I live in Lake County, IN., population about 500K. Latest Covid info. 1,586 confirmed cases, 70 dead. Porter County right next to the east, 215 cases, 5 dead. Jasper County just to the south, 29 cases, 1 dead. Newton County, very close, 46 cases, 5 dead. And Marion County, which is the Indy area has 4,926 cases with 267 dead. The entire state is on lockdown. The entire school system is down and canceled for the rest of the year. Why is the Jasper County school system not up and running? Or any of the other smaller less populated counties? This is the case in every single state in this country. Covid is a large urban problem, and a big problem in the really large cities like NYC. All efforts and resources should be concentrated there. The rest of the country can go back to work, prudent precautions in place and that's how this should have been rolled up from the start. Lots of mosquitos in NYC, not so much in the other 95% of the country.
 
CaptainObvious said:
Actually, now that I have had a few minutes to think about it your mosquito analogy is a good one. Quite a few years ago there was a local golf course which we played. During the hot and humid months there were three holes I remember where the mosquitos were thick, crazy thick. So bad you couldn't even stand over a put. Did this stop us from playing the course? No. We either skipped those holes or there was no f'n around when we played them. Think of a state like that golf course. 3 holes were unplayable, the other 15 no issues at all. A insect here and there. And other courses just a few miles away had no real mosquito problems at all. Should every golf course have been avoided? Every single one statewide? Nationwide?
I live in Lake County, IN., population about 500K. Latest Covid info. 1,586 confirmed cases, 70 dead. Porter County right next to the east, 215 cases, 5 dead. Jasper County just to the south, 29 cases, 1 dead. Newton County, very close, 46 cases, 5 dead. And Marion County, which is the Indy area has 4,926 cases with 267 dead. The entire state is on lockdown. The entire school system is c down and canceled for the rest of the year. Why is the Jasper County school system not up and running? Or any of the other smaller less populated counties? This is the case in every single state in this country. Covid is a large urban problem, and a big problem in the really large cities like NYC. All efforts and resources should be concentrated there. The rest of the country can go back to work, prudent precautions in place and that's how this should have been rolled up from the start. Lots of mosquitos in NYC, not so much in the other 95% of the country.
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It's a good thing those mosquitoes didn't have cars, eh?

Meanwhile, with the disparity of preventative measures among the states, it will be about as effective as confidently standing in the non-urinating section of a swimming pool.
 
Frederick Foresight said:
It's a good thing those mosquitoes didn't have cars, eh?

Meanwhile, with the disparity of preventative measures among the states, it will be about as effective as confidently standing in the non-urinating section of a swimming pool.
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You just don't want to admit that such a broad-brush approve to this was and is completely unnecessary. One day you may get a headache, are you going to cut off your head as a preventative measure? Shall we all cut off our heads because you have decided it the best way of dealing with headaches? Circle jerk debates bore me, but not much else to do these days.
 
Tsing Tao said:
Visited, yes, several times. Worked, no.

The country is greatly populated in urban life and no where near as developed suburban. The point is that it is an apples to oranges comparison. You can't just take Brazil and compare it to the United States for an accurate representation on how a virus would behave. Just like you can't take a country like Russia and compare it to the UK. Or France.

Well, you can, but its not going to be accurate. And if it ends up being close, it'll be the old proverb about the two types of forecasters out there - the ones that are wrong, and the ones that are lucky.

Still, was curious how many in your high school class died from Covid. Do you know the answer to that?
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From a modelling viewpoint they would compare different countries by looking at the population density in different areas, the percentage of land area at different population densities, and other other population information as it relates to the spread of disease. The models show the differences between two countries where one may have much more population in urban areas versus another having population spread out across rural areas. Use appropriate simulation runs to validate the value of density factors for serving as a predictor. Proper modeling can lead to accurate forecasts but a modeller of an active pandemic disease should not only use predictive analytics but adaptive analytics.

See my post from April 12th regarding those from my high school class impacted by COVID-19
https://www.elitetrader.com/et/thre...ck-from-ccp-virus.342983/page-10#post-5068243
 
Frederick Foresight said:
https://www.rawstory.com/2020/04/re...ect-storm-of-illness-and-death-from-covid-19/


I see you are speaking from experience here. :D
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There are plenty of fatties in the city.:cool: Everyone has a might be, could happen, what if projection. I'm not seeing the numbers add up and it's been several weeks now. As the article states the social distancing isn't being practiced in the more rural areas and that had been my observation as well in my not so rural area. Back to mosquitoes.:D Those little monsters had a perfect environment around those three holes. Heavily wooded with water hazards everywhere. NYC has a perfect environment for Covid. People stacked likr sardines, crammed elevators and subways, International hub. It's understandable Covid thrives there. Jasper County Indiana is in no way similar to NYC. Hell, there isn't an elevator in the whole damn place othrt than a grain elevator and I seriously doubt some NYC socialite is sending their kids to rub elbows with the corn crowd at Jasper high school. We needed a much more nuanced approach to this and the price for not doing so is going to be heavy
 
CaptainObvious said:
We needed a much more nuanced approach to this and the price for not doing so is going to be heavy
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If you're in trade that can potentially take you out of the game, how nuanced should your risk management be?

You ever notice that it's the little shit we don't pay attention that tends to get out of hand?
 
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Frederick Foresight said:
If you're in trade that can potentially take you out of the game, how nuanced should your risk management be?
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Not all traders have the same risk profile or tolerance. Some can handle more pain than others. What works for and may be prudent for you may be too risky for another. One size does not fit all. Yes, the less experienced will pay the price of education, but we cannot just assume everyone will blow up.
 
CaptainObvious said:
Not all traders have the same risk profile or tolerance. Some can handle more pain than others. What works for and may be prudent for you may be too risky for another. One size does not fit all. Yes, the less experienced will pay the price of education, but we cannot just assume everyone will blow up.
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Problem is, your risk profile may affect someone else. This is more of a collective "trade." To painfully mix my metaphors, just because a wagon may have two horses doesn't mean that it can go in two directions.

I should write a book. :D
 
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