The Path to Recovery: How to Re-Open America

Tsing Tao said:
Totally not the same thing. Brazil and the United States have very different Urban/Suburban/Rural lifestyles.
More...

Have you ever worked in or visited Brazil?

How do you find Urban/Suburban/Rural lifestyles different? My experience from working there is that there are many similarities.
 
It could be the Prevention Paradox or the Decimation Deception.


gwb-trading said:
If California had not locked down in mid-March how do you know that the problem would not have been even worse than New York, Italy, or Spain?

We put in place in most states the best policy to address a novel pandemic as outlined by medical experts in the field. What if you took another course and landed up with complete public health fiasco?

The German Coronavirus expert had some interesting commentary on the subject of those who thought the lockdown was excessive.

Germany's coronavirus lead said the country's restrictions worked so well that people are now angry because they think the government overreacted
https://www.businessinsider.com/ger...so-effective-people-think-overreaction-2020-4
  • Germany's top coronavirus expert told The Guardian on Sunday that he worries about the country beginning to lift its lockdown.
  • Christian Drosten said the country is now experiencing the "prevention paradox" — meaning it has been so successful at combating the virus that the public now thinks the government overreacted.
  • "In Germany, people see that the hospitals are not overwhelmed, and they don't understand why their shops have to shut," Drosten said.
The German government's leading coronavirus expert said he's afraid the country's success at fighting the coronavirus will cause complacency, which could fuel a second wave of infections.

Christian Drosten, director of Berlin's Institute of Virology at the Charité Hospital, spoke to The Guardian on Sunday, days after the country began lifting some lockdown restrictions.

Germany's lockdown started to lift on April 20, with the opening of smaller businesses like car dealerships, bike shops, and book stores. The country plans to start reopening schools on May 4.

Drosten said he felt like the government was being pressured to reopen, and that he feared that a blasé attitude toward the relatively tame outbreak in Germany could lead to a new burst of infections.

"At the moment, we are seeing half-empty ICUs in Germany," he said. "This is because we started diagnostics early and on a broad scale, and we stopped the epidemic – that is, we brought the reproduction number below 1."

The basic reproduction number, also known as R0, represents the average number of people a single patient is expected to infect and is a key figure to measuring countries' outbreak. You can read Business Insider's explainer to it here.

"Now, what I call the 'prevention paradox' has set in," Drosten added. "People are claiming we overreacted, there is political and economic pressure to return to normal."

"The federal plan is to lift lockdown slightly, but because the German states, or Länder, set their own rules, I fear we're going to see a lot of creativity in the interpretation of that plan. I worry that the reproduction number will start to climb again, and we will have a second wave," he added.

Germany currently has the fifth highest coronavirus cases in the world, with more than 157,000 as of Monday.

But they have been able to keep their death toll much lower than other countries — 5,976 compared to the US' 54,877 — which has largely been attributed to the country's extensive testing at the beginning of the outbreak.

"In Germany, people see that the hospitals are not overwhelmed, and they don't understand why their shops have to shut," Drosten said.

"They only look at what's happening here, not at the situation in, say, New York or Spain," referring to two of the most hard-hit areas in the world in the pandemic.

Drosten even said he's even gotten death threats.

"For many Germans I'm the evil guy who is crippling the economy," he said.

Hundreds of Germans took to the streets of Berlin on Saturday to protest against the lockdown measures. According to The Guardian, about 200 people were involved in the protest, and dozens were arrested.
More...
 
gwb-trading said:
If you want to see how a national strategy goes that only involves locking-in high risk people in old age homes and not locking down anyone else at all - simply look at Brazil. There are clear examples showing how failed strategies work out.

I am sure that the various COVID-19 responses and their results will be case studies for many years into the future. I have one prediction about them however - South Korea and Germany will be cited as the best examples of proper responses to the COVID-19 pandemic.
More...
I'll give you a little snapshot from my part of the world, not that it means much as we message board gurus are just having conversations. I live in Lake County Indiana, population about 500K. Basically it's a suburb of Chicago which is 20 to 45 minutes away depending on where one lives on the county. You could call it densely populated, very integrated through most of the county, heavy black and Hispanic north, more white as you go south until about lilly white in my neck of it. Today I went to visit a friend mid day and traffic was friggin bumper to bumper in all the usual spots. So much fot staying at home. Isn't anyone working, but they're not at home eithet which could lead one to believe the whole social distancing thing isn't playing as big of a role in curtailing the spread as we're being told. Who knows, that's conjecture but food for thought. I'd day I have well over 500 people I am aquainted with who I see regularly through work, play and socializing. All walks of life, all ages, all races, a very diverse crowd. This is so because of the many self help 12 step organizations I am affiliated with and have been for decades. Actually It's probably closer to a thousand people I am acquainted with on some level. So what's the point of all this? I know one, one person who has been infected with thr virus. One. A young women about 30 who is a nurse at one of the local hospitals near Chicago so no real surprise there. I know two other people who have people they know in other states. One has two business partners in NYC that died from it. The other has a daughter in Texas who had it and recovered with no hospitalization required. That is it. Just seems like I'd be seeing a hell of a lot more of these acquaintances telling stories of illnesses and death given what is being portrayed as near global extinction by our friends in the media. Just sayin is all, just sayin.
 
gwb-trading said:
Have you ever worked in or visited Brazil?

How do you find Urban/Suburban/Rural lifestyles different? My experience from working there is that there are many similarities.
More...

Visited, yes, several times. Worked, no.

The country is greatly populated in urban life and no where near as developed suburban. The point is that it is an apples to oranges comparison. You can't just take Brazil and compare it to the United States for an accurate representation on how a virus would behave. Just like you can't take a country like Russia and compare it to the UK. Or France.

Well, you can, but its not going to be accurate. And if it ends up being close, it'll be the old proverb about the two types of forecasters out there - the ones that are wrong, and the ones that are lucky.

Still, was curious how many in your high school class died from Covid. Do you know the answer to that?
 
Last edited:
gwb-trading said:
In one European country they are proposing allowing children 11 and younger to return to school. At the same time they are proposing only allowing staff under a certain age with no health issues to work at the schools. (will need to dig up the reference)
More...
That is some stupid shit. They're thinking about doing something similar here in the province of Quebec, where I live. Sure, young kids appear to be more resilient to the effects of the virus, but what happens when those young kids come home and into contact with their parents and other close relatives?
 
Frederick Foresight said:
Really? So when mosquitoes start coming into your house, do you slowly and gradually close the doors and windows?
More...
I wouldn't close my windows at all for what would be the equivalent of one or two mosquitoes. Even if many we're suddenly coming In wouldn't burn down my house trying to get rid of them, and I certainly wouldn't demand all my neighbors burn down theirs because I had a mosquito problem, and I wouldn't order that all homes across the nation be burned downed or even have any concerns at all because of my mosquito issue.
 
CaptainObvious said:
I wouldn't close my windows at all for what would be the equivalent of one or two mosquitoes. Even if many we're suddenly coming In wouldn't burn down my house trying to get rid of them, and I certainly wouldn't demand all my neighbors burn down theirs because I had a mosquito problem, and I wouldn't order that all homes across the nation be burned downed or even have any concerns at all because of my mosquito issue.
More...
Those two mosquitoes were very pregnant, and I have no doubt they appreciated your welcoming windows. Burning down houses? I think this analogy has gone astray.
 
CaptainObvious said:
I wouldn't close my windows at all for what would be the equivalent of one or two mosquitoes. Even if many we're suddenly coming In wouldn't burn down my house trying to get rid of them, and I certainly wouldn't demand all my neighbors burn down theirs because I had a mosquito problem, and I wouldn't order that all homes across the nation be burned downed or even have any concerns at all because of my mosquito issue.
More...

hpwtwm93cdo01.jpg
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top