The Path to Recovery: How to Re-Open America

Tsing Tao said:
Ok, so are we betting on this or not? Doesn't have to be a monetary bet.
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Tourist revenue would need to be compared to what it was for similar time periods in 2019 for each country. For Europe I expect some countries (e.g. Italy) to be down while others (e.g. Spain) to go up. Europe still has the situation where many people are avoiding air travel and will vacation closer to home - but over 70% already vacation in their home countries in a typical year. Keep in mind that many European businesses have a long August vacation period -- which is what really drives EU cross member states vacation revenue. Vacation in the U.S. is through the year or clustered around extended holiday weeks/weekends.

Europe also has a good train network that enables tourist trips of moderate distances as an alternative to air travel.

Another thought is that European residents are less impacted by unemployment than U.S. citizens due to better benefits and social safety network. U.S. vacations this summer may decline simply due to the large number of unemployed who are losing their additional federal benefit at the end of July.

I will not "bet" on these type of things. I simply will say that we should do a country by country comparison versus the same month(s) last year when the August data becomes available. It is actually of more interest how this EU re-opening from COVID changes European tourist travel patterns.

Here are the typical EU vacation stats and profile from 2008 to 2018 -- to show the typical time.
https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/stati...statistics_-_characteristics_of_tourism_trips

"In 2018, EU residents spent on average 70.5 % of their tourism trips inside their country of residence."

Trips_of_EU_residents_by_duration_and_destination%2C_2018.png
 
gwb-trading said:
Tourist revenue would need to be compared to what it was for similar time periods in 2019 for each country. For Europe I expect some countries (e.g. Italy) to be down while others (e.g. Spain) to go up. Europe still has the situation where many people are avoiding air travel and will vacation closer to home - but over 70% already vacation in their home countries in a typical year. Keep in mind that many European businesses have a long August vacation period -- which is what really drives EU cross member states vacation revenue. Vacation in the U.S. is through the year or clustered around extended holiday weeks/weekends.

Europe also has a good train network that enables tourist trips of moderate distances as an alternative to air travel.

Another thought is that European residents are less impacted by unemployment than U.S. citizens due to better benefits and social safety network. U.S. vacations this summer may decline simply due to the large number of unemployed who are losing their additional federal benefit at the end of July.

I will not "bet" on these type of things. I simply will say that we should do a country by country comparison versus the same month(s) last year when the August data becomes available. It is actually of more interest how this EU re-opening from COVID changes European tourist travel patterns.

Here are the typical EU vacation stats and profile from 2008 to 2018 -- to show the typical time.
https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/stati...statistics_-_characteristics_of_tourism_trips

"In 2018, EU residents spent on average 70.5 % of their tourism trips inside their country of residence."

Trips_of_EU_residents_by_duration_and_destination%2C_2018.png
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Ok, so you don't want to make a bet on something you claim will happen. That's fine. But the comment "Europe will have a better tourist summer than the U.S." is your opinion, and you are entitled to it. I think it is wrong.
 
Tsing Tao said:
Ok, so you don't want to make a bet on something you claim will happen. That's fine. But the comment "Europe will have a better tourist summer than the U.S." is your opinion, and you are entitled to it. I think it is wrong.
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This is based on the tourist resort areas in the EU being highly booked already for this summer -- while the bookings at most U.S. resort areas are down significantly from 2019 It does not help in the U.S that many of the beaches that opened are already closing down again in Florida, etc.

Some stats so far for the U.S. -- Hotel bookings are a good indicator.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/206546/us-hotels-occupancy-rate-by-month/

https://www.businesstravelnews.com/...ing-Rate-Decline-Eases-in-Late-Summer-For-Now
 
gwb-trading said:
This is based on the tourist resort areas in the EU being highly booked already for this summer -- while the bookings at most U.S. resort areas are down significantly from 2019 It does not help in the U.S that many of the beaches that opened are already closing down again in Florida, etc.

Some stats so far for the U.S. -- Hotel bookings are a good indicator.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/206546/us-hotels-occupancy-rate-by-month/

https://www.businesstravelnews.com/...ing-Rate-Decline-Eases-in-Late-Summer-For-Now
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I honestly don't care what forecasting links you post on the subject, gwb. Like, at all. You believe the EU will fare better on tourism than the US this year. Lets look at the end of the Tourist Season (in September). You may be right. You may be wrong. We shall see.

Going to look at estimated tourism revenue at season end.

Oh, and by the way, I'm going to challenge you whenever I see you post some statement I know to be questionable - like the deaths rising in the US and Brazil comment from yesterday. So do us both a favor, save me time, save yourself some bad press and just make solid statements grounded in fact (preferably fact that can be supported by empirical data), or qualify your opinions as such openly like you used to do.
 
Ricter said:
Not only are undecided tourists not going to choose the US this year, those who planned to travel to the US will go to Europe or elsewhere instead.
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No worries. We are our best tourists. Keep American money at home. Better for the long run.
 
Tsing Tao said:
No worries. We are our best tourists. Keep American money at home. Better for the long run.
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I'd bet American businesses that serve both domestic and foreign tourists would disagree. Besides, Americans will be staying home more, too. You cannot win this argument with a pariah America as a premise.
 
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