The Pandemic Could Be ‘Effectively’ Over by April, According to J.P. Morgan

[wrbtrader]

Nope. I am talking about a month+ from now. By then 25% of the population (at danger, old) will be vaccinated so even the young who may take it home wouldn't infect them. And as I mentioned some precaution still would be in order. Lock downs were done for protecting hospital overflow, we are not in danger of that now.

America will be partying like it is 1999 by April, mark my word. Daily death will be under 500, daily new infections under 20K.

I heard the Mardi Gras was cancelled and that residents are doing other activities within their community districts only.

Also, there will be no Mardi Gras in 2021 regardless to the vaccinations...apparently it has already been voted upon "not" to have it. In fact, they did not issue any permits for a Mardi Gras 2021 and plan to fine those that violate the new rules.

Looks like for now...just virtual parades and the reschedule date of Memorial Day has also been cancelled.

• https://www.mardigrasneworleans.com/news/mardi-gras-parades-latest-victim-of-covid-19

Mardi Gras 2022 will be wild...its something I may go to myself assuming I can get vaccinated. Girlfriend (ICU nurse that works with Covid-19 patients) already vaccinated with the 1st shot...she gets her 2nd shot in a few weeks.

wrbtrader

 

[DiceAreCast]

Lol, don't we love the optimists in this thread and America at large... Wishful thinking if you ask me. The whole concept of herd immunity is a completely unproven idea for this specific epidemic. Can't compare with the flu at all. Hoping for things to normalize before autumn this year at the VERY earliest is completely unrealistic. If even this epidemic cannot break the stubborn selfishness of the few and if the rest can't effectively shut out those who don't comply with safety measures then any large scale reopenings this year are doomed. Despite tightened travel restrictions and an extra 2000 dollars imposed on any returning traveler to Canada, last week airplanes departing Vancouver to Hawaii were completely booked out and loaded. Why some are so incredibly selfish and fucked up to travel for pleasure right now is completely beyond me. We should impose 10000 dollar fines and prison terms on those people. The entire country makes sacrifices and a few freeloaders do whatever pleases them.

The US and Canada are some of the few industrialized countries who just don't seem to get to grip with the fact that you can either go the full mile or do nothing. There is no middle ground here. New Zealand, Australia, Japan, China, and tons of other countries seem to understand what needs to be done. But apparently one can't keep rednecks and idiots in check.

 

[Arnie]

I just looked at the data for CA, one of the most locked down states and FL, one of the least locked down states. These figures are from NYT updated at this site

COVID Statistics

The 7 day average of new cases (per million) is 215 for CA and 314 for FL
The 7 day average of deaths (per million) is 9.67 for CA and 7.45 for FL.

Considering how different their approach to lock downs were, I think the data shows not much benefit in hard vs soft lockdown, especially considering the collateral damage to the economy and peoples lives. Both have obesity rates of 25-30% (CDC). FL has slightly more over 65 years of age at 20.5% vs CA at 14.8%
And for the record I wear a mask EVERYWHERE I go. I don't go to bars/restaurants.
My bet is this pretty much over by Labor Day 2021.

 

[destriero]

Vaccines are all upside. The vaccines impart some level immunity/reduction in symptoms against all mutations of COVID-19. Those exposed to mutated strains do not get critically-ill (if previously vaccinated).

 

[virtusa]

According to data released Thursday by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, the obesity rate reached 42.4% in 2017-2018 – surpassing 40% for the first time.

 

[VicBee]

I just looked at the data for CA, one of the most locked down states and FL, one of the least locked down states. These figures are from NYT updated at this site

COVID Statistics

The 7 day average of new cases (per million) is 215 for CA and 314 for FL
The 7 day average of deaths (per million) is 9.67 for CA and 7.45 for FL.

Considering how different their approach to lock downs were, I think the data shows not much benefit in hard vs soft lockdown, especially considering the collateral damage to the economy and peoples lives. Both have obesity rates of 25-30% (CDC). FL has slightly more over 65 years of age at 20.5% vs CA at 14.8%
And for the record I wear a mask EVERYWHERE I go. I don't go to bars/restaurants.
My bet is this pretty much over by Labor Day 2021.

Except Florida is known to underreport. Also, I can tell you that California is far from strict compared to other countries like NZ, OZ, Taiwan, Singapore, SKorea, Japan..where if you're out without a mask on you're fined, no snowflakes allowed.

 

[Market_Diver]

You never heard of improvement and ramping up? Also you don't need to vaccinate everyone.

Many reports say that vaccines are not that effective and have long term side effects.
You also have to consider a large percentage, probably around 30% of the population, will not take the vaccine, including the health care workers.

So, it will take time. Some estimated 6-7 years.

 

[Pekelo]

Many reports say that vaccines are not that effective and have long term side effects.

The numbers were already dropping (as predicted by me) before the vaccines have any noticeable effect. That is just how a pandemic runs. The 1918 one was over in 26 months without vaccines.

Will there be hotspots here and there 1-2 years from now? Sure, but the US will be almost normal by 4th of July followed by Europe in 3 more months. And you don't need to vaccinate everyone for the virus to die off.

And there are expensive but also cheap treatments for the already sick.

https://www.reuters.com/article/health-coronavirus-asthma-treatment-int-idUSKBN2A92M7

And no, no reports say anything about long term vaccine effects because we haven't been using it for a long time, so that is impossible.

 

[Arnie]

Except Florida is known to underreport. Also, I can tell you that California is far from strict compared to other countries like NZ, OZ, Taiwan, Singapore, SKorea, Japan..where if you're out without a mask on you're fined, no snowflakes allowed.

Fair point. I think that was true late last year, but I could not find any links saying current reporting is suspect, at least not from a reliable source. All of the countries you cited put severe restrictions on people coming into their country. Here in the US the horse had already left barn and that really wasn't a viable option.
Around the time China first reported the virus 3m Chinese had left Whuan province for Chinese NY, 1m of those estimated to have travelled to other countries.
Anecdotally, if FL was severley under reporting cases, wouldn't the hospitals have been overrun? How the hell do you keep that out of the news?

 

[Money Trust]

Mardi Gras would have created a disaster. Too many in the community still suffering from the damage caused by the 2020 Mardi Gras that left so many dead, suffering as long haulers or closed shop (business failure).

Instead of traveling and possibly causing an outbreak...invest the same money in your own community via buying locally.

wrbtrader

I was there for 2020 Mardi Gras. I attended 5 different parades and even a 2nd line. In fact, I'm a New Orleans native. Don't believe the lies. Then again, y'all believe everything the media says.....