The Pabst Doctrine

Quote from Pa(b)st Prime:
There's not an ipso-facto relationship between market valuations. You should certanly know that. W
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Never said that there was. But, you can't deny that correlations of major markets have moved toward '1' every time the US market goes through a significant rough patch in recent years.

Quote from Pa(b)st Prime:
Compare the Nikkei in the 1990's to U.S. indices. They went straight down (from 90-99 they lost 60%) while we were tripling in value. Hence during a period of MASSIVE American strength one of our biggest suppliers of goods got absolutely crushed and they've never bounced back.
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Market correlations (between US & world) are much higher during volatile US downturns than long uptrends. You're not addressing my point here.
 
Quote from Pa(b)st Prime:

What statements in my doctrine would lead you to believe I'm inherently opposed to giving a tax credit to the descendants of slaves? I'd rather give black folks a tax credit than give them welfare.
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Be honest. You'd rather give them nothing. Given your stated views, it's hard to believe that you continued to put your personal efforts behind Keyes after that one.

I'd like to think that your support of the 'Mavericks' is more reasoned...

but...
 
What "rough patches" are you talking about? For four years the U.S. market went straight up.

So your global trading doctrine is then this:

When America breaks everyone breaks.

When America rallies not everyone rallies.

When someone else breaks we don't necessarily break.


And America wonders why the World hates us. :p

Most conditions are global. Do you think home prices are strong in Brisbane right now? On the other hand things can also be DIFFERENT from place to place even WITHIN a country. Miami is in free fall yet I'm pricing condos on L.A.'s Westside and they're virtually on ATH's. Even within Los Angeles there's neighborhoods in massive foreclosure (Imperial Valley) and places in Santa Monica are UP ticking.

If correlations or lack of were so easy to identify then ya know what? I'd stay up all night and trade the Hang Seng and DAX tick for tick off ES. Ask anyone if it can be done profitably....
Quote from BlindLemonBoosh:

Never said that there was. But, you can't deny that correlations of major markets have moved toward '1' every time the US market goes through a significant rough patch in recent years.



Market correlations (between US & world) are much higher during volatile US downturns than long uptrends. You're not addressing my point here.
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Quote from BlindLemonBoosh:

Be honest. You'd rather give them nothing. Given your stated views, it's hard to believe that you continued to put your personal efforts behind Keyes after that one.

I'd like to think that your support of the 'Mavericks' is more reasoned...

but...
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Of COURSE I'd rather give them nothing. I'd rather the GOVERNMENT OF THE PEOPLE give EVERYONE nothing and by the same token TAKE NOTHING from ANYONE.
 
Quote from Pa(b)st Prime:

You're right. I'm too often a hot head. I apologize.

I have a few (dozen) peeves as you know. One of them-and I blame the U.S. media-is the lack of global and historical perspective on issues. Take this past week. The entire friggin' world is 60-70% off the highs and the press treats the sub-prime crisis as some Blame Bush creation when in fact from Russia to China asset prices are imploding in lock step.

Libs luv to criticize the intelligence level of Americans-Obama's bitter comments say it all-but I find most folks are functional smart but just misinformed. It's not their fault. If I did nothing other than read Paul Krugman's take I'd be a foaming at the mouth idiot as well. Around 10% of life is black and white the rest is the in betweens. Those gray areas take hundreds of hours to dissect in proper form-examining the causes and effects of policies-yet the public discussion is usually summed up in one snappy 5 word headline. We live in a very unenlightened society. Instead of burning a flag we'd be best served burning the morning paper.
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I always appreciate a more nuanced answer (like the one you wrote) than the typical black or white answers that most people prefer.

Most people prefer simple solutions to complex problems, and most of those who try to trade the markets put more into the kitty than they take out. I see a connection.
 
Quote from smilingsynic:

I always appreciate a more nuanced answer (like the one you wrote) than the typical black or white answers that most people prefer.

Most people prefer simple solutions to complex problems, and most of those who try to trade the markets put more into the kitty than they take out. I see a connection.
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I appreciate your kindness. I've been abusive to you quite a few times and I'm sorry. More often then not you're very polite and I realize you're a good person who deeply cares about society and our fellow man. People who disagree on the methods to enrichment should do so in a more civil manner.:)

That being said there's at least 10 people here whose heads I'd chop off if I had the chance.....:D
 
"That being said there's at least 10 people here whose heads I'd chop off if I had the chance....."

How very Muslim extremist terrorist of you Adolph...

<img src=http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=2079913>

Quote from Pa(b)st Prime:

I appreciate your kindness. I've been abusive to you quite a few times and I'm sorry. More often then not you're very polite and I realize you're a good person who deeply cares about society and our fellow man. People who disagree on the methods to enrichment should do so in a more civil manner.:)

That being said there's at least 10 people here whose heads I'd chop off if I had the chance.....:D
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Quote from Pa(b)st Prime:

I appreciate your kindness. I've been abusive to you quite a few times and I'm sorry. More often then not you're very polite and I realize you're a good person who deeply cares about society and our fellow man. People who disagree on the methods to enrichment should do so in a more civil manner.:)

That being said there's at least 10 people here whose heads I'd chop off if I had the chance.....:D
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If I am ever in Chicago, I'll buy you a beer, and we will agree to disagree about everything else. :p
 
Quote from Pa(b)st Prime:

Of COURSE I'd rather give them nothing. I'd rather the GOVERNMENT OF THE PEOPLE give EVERYONE nothing and by the same token TAKE NOTHING from ANYONE.
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There is a name for that kind of political system: anarchy.

I wonder if you'd have enjoyed living in the Wild West. Considering there aren't any countries like that anymore except in maybe areas of Africa I'll hazard to guess that there is a downside to it.
 
Quote from Pa(b)st Prime:

What "rough patches" are you talking about? For four years the U.S. market went straight up.
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Are you asserting that there have been no rough patches in 'recent years'?

Quote from Pa(b)st Prime:

So your global trading doctrine is then this:

When America breaks everyone breaks.

When America rallies not everyone rallies.

When someone else breaks we don't necessarily break.
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It suffices to say that you are being disingenuous here. You proffered an invalid comparison between a negative systemic shock and a long term uptrend. That doesn't work. You've shown yourself to be a serious student of the markets. Don't get lazy on me now.

Quote from Pa(b)st Prime:

If correlations or lack of were so easy to identify then ya know what? I'd stay up all night and trade the Hang Seng and DAX tick for tick off ES. Ask anyone if it can be done profitably....
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I can't respond here except to note your tendency to go off on unrelated tangents. Nobody has attempted to make a case for tick by tick inter-market correlations. Lapses into fantasy don't serve to strengthen your argument.
 
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