The Opening Orders Thread
- Thread starter Don Bright
- Start date
A bit chicken, another couple of hundred +.
Waiting to ladder the FOMC, one of my favorite things to do, LOL.
Don
Waiting to ladder the FOMC, one of my favorite things to do, LOL.
Don
No fills, had a bunch pulled on news. Out yesterday, so didn't play.
Whats laddering FOMC Don? I am assuming its one of the strategys what works???
Oh sure, one of the best for quick day trades. Watch the emini's just before the start the announcements, watch the market move up and down, have parked outside envelope orders in, really good track record. The "do" something, then they "analyze" what they did, then they re-analyze, then the give "guidance" - generally a few minutes of volatility. Doesn't work every time, but a good track record as I said.
All the best,
Don
You need to understand the way the FED works. In effect, they have alrady cut the rate .25%. How can you tell? The FED can inject or remove liquidity at will by doing REPOs and reverse REPOs. Those are fancy names for buying or selling bonds, depending on whether they want to inject liquidity or not. They can directly affect short end of the bond markets this way, and that is how they go about their day to day business of keeping the target rate.
If you look at where bonds are trading, the FED has let the effective rate drop below 5%. That is all you need to know.
I do agree the FED should stand pat, but the FED has already made the decision of a .25% basis cut, and the real question is whether we get .50, which I estimate at best a 1 in 10 chance of happening. The FFFs market give it a 50:50 chance of a .50. If hell freezes over.
As I explain in this post, you may still see a collapse after the cut:
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=1608094#post1608094
nitro
Thanks, but actually, I thought .50 was close to impossible even though FFFs gave it 50% chance.
I am still shocked actually. Think about this for a minute and put all the pieces of this puzzle together. When the FED meets, one of the things that the FED chief does is he goes around the table and gets an impression from all the local FEDs, and he is getting data that is at most one day old. I tell you, Bernanke must have seen the whites in their eyes imo to take the action that he did.
With QM at $81, YG going ballistic towards $1000, the $ getting obliterated, wheat just a week ago locked limit up at all time highs, Health Care costs out of control, education costs out of control, a gallon of milk at $4, how the heck do you justify a .50, FIFTY, basis cut into those facts?
The credit woes must be worse out there than we think.
Watch the CRB Index from here on in. This isn't over yet. The easy play is buy NQ till year end, and hedge short YM, in the right ratios.
nitro