The only polls you need to see.
- Thread starter Amun Ra
- Start date
Curious, but why hasn't there been a single Biden event where the media, or someone on social media, shows a massive gathering like this? Is it all because of Corona?
I accept the fact that the race will be close so I am not sidewinding away from that issue.
However, I will offer up the reminder that back in 2016 the big 64,000 dollar question was whether big crowds for Trump meant big turnout at the polls or whether everyone just showed up for a good time and then didn't vote.
Unfortunately, the dems found out that big crowds resulted in big voting too.
Yeh, the dems are sweating and worried about deja vu. They are doing pretty well so I am not, as I said, overlooking that but they are still inside the sweating and fretting zone. They are having to figure out the opposite scenario from what Trump has. Does Joe's voters not showing up for rallies mean that they will still vote? In a normal year we would not the answer to that. The answer would be NO. Flaccid rallying equals flaccid voting. But can mail-in voting compensate for that in a major way. That is the 64,000 question this time around.
However, I will offer up the reminder that back in 2016 the big 64,000 dollar question was whether big crowds for Trump meant big turnout at the polls or whether everyone just showed up for a good time and then didn't vote.
Unfortunately, the dems found out that big crowds resulted in big voting too.
Yeh, the dems are sweating and worried about deja vu. They are doing pretty well so I am not, as I said, overlooking that but they are still inside the sweating and fretting zone. They are having to figure out the opposite scenario from what Trump has. Does Joe's voters not showing up for rallies mean that they will still vote? In a normal year we would not the answer to that. The answer would be NO. Flaccid rallying equals flaccid voting. But can mail-in voting compensate for that in a major way. That is the 64,000 question this time around.
The thing is Dems just have to keep the states they won and flip 3 more they usually win but lost (MI, WI, PA).... with no real 3rd party candidate that makes the election in those 3 states much closer than they were in 2016 possibly. meaning more of a toss up.
Look at Michigan for example:
less than 12,000 votes while over 200,000 votes were thrown away to nobodies.
Look at Wisconsin
So people who claim Dems have to have a landslide windfall to take back the Presidency ignore that Clinton lost by 3 states that are traditionally BLUE- PA, WISC and MI. Those states were with a 1% margin and we do not have all the bullshit candidates this year taking votes from most likely Dems based on their party platforms.
SO Trump supporters should be worried about these 3 states which are a combined 46 EC votes.
Trump won 304 - 227.
Flip those 46 back to Dems and you have:
DEMS 273 GOP 258
This election is waaaaay closer than people think because they think Trump won in a landslide. NOT TRUE.
Dems get back those 3 states and do not lose ground elsewhere.........Biden wins. GOP needs to understand this is not 2016 anymore with 2 jackasses and people were like "Fuck it...voting for Trump or Gary or Jill". It will be Trump's last 4 years versus Biden and Trump already lost ground in some areas and if Biden wins those 3 flips one larger red state, then the EC swings real fast.
I have not heard either dems or pubs say that.
Most understand that Trump won by the width of a pubic hair, although he came a massive distance and was able to overcome both the clinton and bush machines.
With mail in voting and rampant Democrat ballot harvesting, Trump is facing a tough battle
You mean the tough battle is not because he just barely won in 2016 and is facing a more energized Dem base?
Is the only way Trump loses is voting fraud because it seems the GOP is setting it up as Trump will win and if he doesn't it was voting fraud....
There are a lot of thoughts swimming around that Trump should trounce Biden by a large margin like he did to HRC and any win by Biden is due to voter fraud. I would say the pubic hair width you reference is an adequate though disgustingly graphic analogy and it is a lot easier to make up that width 4 years later with lessons learned.
This truly makes this year a wild toss up despite what polls say.
The polls oversample democrats though by large margins. Current party affiliation has republicans +1 over dems. In 2016 dems were +5 over republicans.
https://news.gallup.com/poll/15370/party-affiliation.aspx
The lastest poll on RCP from IBD/TIPP has Biden up +6 in the polls, but they sampled 354 democrats and 318 republicans.
So just like last year we're seeing oversampled polls and if Trump won last year when they were also oversampling dems when party affiliation was at +5 for hillary voters, Biden CAN'T win when its' +1 for republican voters and they're oversampling by the same amount.
https://news.gallup.com/poll/15370/party-affiliation.aspx
The lastest poll on RCP from IBD/TIPP has Biden up +6 in the polls, but they sampled 354 democrats and 318 republicans.
So just like last year we're seeing oversampled polls and if Trump won last year when they were also oversampling dems when party affiliation was at +5 for hillary voters, Biden CAN'T win when its' +1 for republican voters and they're oversampling by the same amount.