The Obvious

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NotTheExpert

Hi everyone. I am sort of almost ashamed to admit… I read hundreds or so of pages from NYSESTOCKS and TheExpert etc… I couldn’t really tell if these guys were playing mind games or if they knew anything. They had an unconventional way of thinking which I appreciated because I think a lot of people tend to believe everything they hear without question. I managed to unlock a couple of PDFs. It seems the obvious really was just that. Using control, thinking for yourself, and having a system in place.. but also having “good enough” intuition to understand when it’s time to trade against the herd. I sort of came away from those threads only with more questions. I came up with numerous plausible ideas for how to approach trading but my greatest fear is taking the wrong path. I read from TheExpert that intuition will lead you down the wrong path but it almost seemed like intuition was implied… or perhaps they somehow managed to find very special information that I’ve yet to find.
When I think of trading against the herd, I’m not even fully sure what that means because it seems like a lot of people are being contrarians in the market. Does that mean that I should be a non contrarian to be the best contrarian? I’ve tried numerous ideas such as:
- Trading against the best strategies I’ve learned over the years to trade against myself essentially.
- Trading against “bad patterns” by using my own pattern recognition in my brain to filter for the patterns that look real but look like non-perfect setups
- Trading against someone else. This worked extremely well for a period of time but overleveraged may have been my downfall. I turned $200 into $1100 but then it collapsed and then some.
- Waiting for multiple patterns to show up in sequence and waiting for price to come up to the first one to move brilliantly through all of those patterns to stop out all of those patterns
- Trading in line with whatever is continuously repeated in the market RIGHT NOW
- Trading against wherever I can identify the participants currently in pain… trading against those patterns.
- trading the same pattern every time and learning how to take profits early sometimes… TheExpert was going into something that almost sounded like time being a factor in taking profits or something. There was a lot of interesting discussion but followers and detractors in those threads.

This leads me back to…. Be a contrarian or don’t? Or should I be neither and only be whatever is happening right now? Or do I take the best patterns that I learn with absolute discipline?

Also, I’ve been trying for months to defeat the anf28options pdf password but with no luck. Unfortunately, a lot of the images in those threads are gone too.

I’m also not sure how open I am personally to learning because I know I can be stubborn… but I also really want to succeed and I want to learn how to change and do whatever is required to win at this game.
 
I mean… were these guys just talking order flow or were they talking about something different from using art (price action)? There was some other guy called NYSESTOCKS. They use to say things like “use the box to save your socks.” Then TheExpert talked about having an adequate 50 cent range to trade. Am I just not getting what they are talking about because I don’t trade stocks? Do I have to trade stocks to learn the best most obvious way to make money? Were they helping to show the path? I would like to walk it but I don’t really know how. I almost got the impression too that they were almost saying “price goes up, you buy. End of story. No stop”
 
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They also mentioned at one point something like “you ever notice how price will come up to a point and just stop? Watch what happens next.” So I started taking videos. I have some ideas but I have no idea if I’m on the right path
 
You might be the only one reading those reports.
The more you read, the more confused you will be.

After you read those reports, you have to decontaminate / cleanse your mind.

Then do your own analysis.

I have read tons of trading materials and attended many trading courses.
I had decontaminated / cleansed my mind.

Occasionally, I'd watch youtube programs like
'100% Forex trading accuracy',
'Trade 10 mins/day, and retire rich in 1 year' ....
just for entertainment.
 
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NotTheExpert said:
I mean… were these guys just talking order flow or were they talking about something different from using art (price action)?
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I think the "Obvious" thread you allude to is posted under Risk management forum for a reason. Once you manage your risk, everything else will take care of itself. Kinda obvious, ain't it? That said, all these so-called "experts" deliberately make it sound convoluted to makes themselves appear special while making you feel stupid.

Just go learn the basics of price action with the following questions in mind: Why does price go up or down? Where (and more importantly, when) does it reverse? Where should I get in? Where should I not get in? And if I do get in, where should I get out in case I'm wrong?
 
I’m already well versed in price action I think though. Maybe I need to clearly define my edge and determine risk better. I keep failing and I don’t know what to do to improve
 
I read most of that thread too one summer when I had some extra time on my hands. There are some interesting philosophical musings there which makes you think, however, the trading advice that's offered seems fairly generic to me.

And finally most important. Was there every any proof or even indications that any of the experts in that thread really knew how to trade? I most certainly missed it.

A central message in the thread is that you shouldn't trust other people. Yet, most readers of that thread seems to blindly trust in the experts posting there.

TL;DR: While an interesting read, I don't think there's anything special there that will help you become a better trader except basic common sense (which isn't common at all).
 
The questions to ask is what are they selling? Why are they selling that information? If it is so valuable, they would lock in a safe like the formula for Coke for instance. The biggest takeaway is what is their record? Or are they just throwing ideas out and selling those ideas to you? Paul Tudor Jones was a contrarian. He tries to pick tops and bottoms and uses the simple 200 day moving average to tell him whether to enter a stock or not. He is also, a top hedge fund manager. Richard Dennis and the turtles he taught how to trade were all trend followers. When he ended the turtle program, he was reported to have earned $400 million. Just my 2 cents, if you are going to listen to anyone in the stockmarket----listen to those who have repeatedly, taken huge profits out of the stockmarket. Study the methods of the best traders and build your own trading system from there. Remember to backtest your strategies to make sure it has a positive mathematical expectation or edge. Otherwise, do not bother. You are just gambling.
 
Can you please put me on the right path by recommending some good resources? I’ve studied a lot of things… but it seems all of my ideas fail
 
NotTheExpert said:
Can you please put me on the right path by recommending some good resources? I’ve studied a lot of things… but it seems all of my ideas fail
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I have already answered your question.
You failed to read it.

But then, I also said you should delete what you have read.


Time to read, you didn't read.
Time not to read, you read.


Good Luck !!!!!
 
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