The no BS, obfuscation-free price action thread

[baggerlord]

I only use S/R that can be seen on a daily chart, because I figure that is the timeframe that the really big money is dealing with. Just my preference.

As far as I can tell, the purpose of this thread is for you to decide if TA works or not. Why don't you just read a book or some of the massive threads on TA/price action?

 

[oraclewizard77]

http://www.readthemarket.com/index....education1/481-trend-direction-highs-and-lows

Also, you refuse to change your charts to ones that are able to show trends. Here above is shown charts with a standard definition of trends and includes 2 standard patterns of showing when an uptrend can change to a downtrend. You can use volume charts if you like, but as noted only on larger volume will you get less noise.

So then as a trader you will look for a standard pattern in a real time chart to see if you can spot a trend. If for example, the market is trading sideways, then it is not in a trend or a counter trend, so you can just sit and wait till you see a pattern that you recognize. With practice and study, in time you might be able to recognize more patterns.

After that, the hardest things about trading are trade management, and revenge trading.

Trade management is determining your stops, and targets for the trade.

Revenge trading is being able to take a loss without going temporary insane, and start random trading to try to make back that loss and instead losing $ thousands of dollars. Remember, there is no holy grail. If you lose on a trade, maybe its time to stop trading and wait for the next day for you to back in the zone and calm enough and patient enough to wait for the right pattern to place a trade. After a loss, you can then try to determine if you made a mistake or if it was a normal trade that just did not meet your win%. For example, even if you have a 90% win rate, 10% of the time the trade will still not work and it's not your fault. It could even be that day is one of the days that no trades will work based on your patterns, and you should just stop trading for that day.

In hind sight, most days, you should see at least a few places where if you placed a trade, you would have made profit. If you are not seeing that, then you need to change your charts, and indicators to ones that better allow you to analyze the market. Also, if you have for example 2 indicators that show the same thing, get rid of one of them. I got rid of one indicator since it only worked in hind sight but I noticed that in real time, it had no predictive value after I placed a trade and it did not work out.

After that the hard thing is waiting to see a place on the far right side of the screen in real time to place a trade and not to just guess since one can become impatient with waiting.

So once you get to the point, that you can recognize a pattern in hindsight, move on to placing at least a sim trade during market hours. Once that works out, you can then open a small real money account. You will probably blow out this account since trading with sim is not the same as trading with the emotions that comes with using real money, but then after you lose one of more accounts, hopefully, you can then start to control your emotions and slowly build up your equity curve with patient edge based trades.

 

[1a2b3cppp]

Quote from Lord.Maushi:

Yet you can't find sense in price action.

I don't understand your comment. Are you saying I can't find sense in price action because IHS is not actually a bottom pattern? If so, just say that. This is the obfuscation-free price action thread.

 

[1a2b3cppp]

Quote from Lucrum:

A longer time frame.

"Longer" is vague. 5,001 constant volume? 10,000 constant volume?

I use an ES daily chart to look for big historical S/R levels. Is that a long enough time frame?

There is no "magic" time frame. But there is generally less "random noise" (for lack of a better description) in longer time frames. The S/R levels tend to be more significant yield bigger moves when broken and are being watched by more participants. The RTH ATR of the ES 5000 CV is only 1 point.

I will agree that longer time frames probably have more significant S/R points.

Then why are you struggling to find any repeating consistently exploitable patterns?

Cuz I'm a noob who for years has been trading as if price is random and thinking that price is predictable really represents quite a shift in fundamental beliefs.

Also because I'm essentially doing this on my own since no one else has quantified anything.

I try to consider most of the stuff that people say but opinion is often presented as fact on this forum, especially by unprofitable traders (not directed at you). And then there's the whole obfuscation thing that pops up in just about every thread where trading methods are discussed.

 

[1a2b3cppp]

Quote from Lucrum:

You see anything usable in this one?

Is this a quiz with correct answers?

Looks like a series of LHs and LLs and maybe a 2t in the middle.

 

[1a2b3cppp]

Quote from oraclewizard77:

http://www.readthemarket.com/index....education1/481-trend-direction-highs-and-lows

Nice to see it quantified.

Also, you refuse to change your charts to ones that are able to show trends. Here above is shown charts with a standard definition of trends and includes 2 standard patterns of showing when an uptrend can change to a downtrend. You can use volume charts if you like, but as noted only on larger volume will you get less noise.

I thought all charts were fractal. If you remove the timeframe from the bottom you can't tell what kind of chart it is, so why is one better at showing trends than another?

So then as a trader you will look for a standard pattern in a real time chart to see if you can spot a trend. If for example, the market is trading sideways, then it is not in a trend or a counter trend, so you can just sit and wait till you see a pattern that you recognize. With practice and study, in time you might be able to recognize more patterns.

That's the goal.

After that, the hardest things about trading are trade management, and revenge trading.

I actually don't mind when a trade goes against me. In fact, that's how I've traded for years. Trying to pick tops/bottoms and/or trade the trend is very different.

So once you get to the point, that you can recognize a pattern in hindsight, move on to placing at least a sim trade during market hours. Once that works out, you can then open a small real money account. You will probably blow out this account since trading with sim is not the same as trading with the emotions that comes with using real money, but then after you lose one of more accounts, hopefully, you can then start to control your emotions and slowly build up your equity curve with patient edge based trades.

I appreciate you taking the time to write that post and give examples.

 

[IronFist]

Quote from oraclewizard77:

http://www.readthemarket.com/index....education1/481-trend-direction-highs-and-lows

Cool, that looks very similar to what I was doing when I was trading my modified version of jjrvat's method. It was all based on HH HL LH LL. I was thinking about making a thread about that.

 

[Lord.Maushi]

Quote from oraclewizard77:

http://www.readthemarket.com/index....education1/481-trend-direction-highs-and-lows

That article says nothing, that has not been said before.

In fact, it's incorrect.

A lower low is not a lower low unless the wave that made the lower low is of similar wavelength to the previous MAIN waves that made HH and HLs. Most price action readers do not take this into account, therefore calling swing lows, lower lows, that actually are not, but instead are just, congestion, in an uptrend.

 

[IronFist]

1a2b3cppp, when I made a price action thread years ago I got 50 different opinions from 50 different people. I don't even know if any of them were actually profitable traders.

What you are doing with the daily, 5,000 volume and 5 second charts sounds very similar to what anek was doing. I don't mean the stuff in his thread, I mean how they actually traded.

I'm following this thread and wishing you luck. I'll contribute if I see anything I can offer help on.

 

[IronFist]

Quote from Lord.Maushi:

That article says nothing, that has not been said before.

In fact, it's incorrect.

A lower low is not a lower low unless the wave that made the lower low is of similar wavelength to the previous MAIN waves that made HH and HLs. Most price action readers do not take this into account, therefore calling swing lows, lower lows, that actually are not, but instead are just, congestion, in an uptrend.

Can you post some charts as examples?