The no BS, obfuscation-free price action thread
- Thread starter 1a2b3cppp
- Start date
To the OP:
Im a bit "concerned" this thread is just a "hindsight" chart reading lab.
Here's what I mean...
Several annotated charts have been posted.
Several "potential" trade triggers have been identified such as H&S, S/R, W-pattern and trendlines.
Yet there is no mentions or activities encompassing...
1) Making these identifications in REAL-TIME: AS/WHEN/IF the potential trade-trigger(s) are in process of being formed or approaching zones.
2) Annotating paper (or actual) trades on the chart, with targets and stops. Seeing the entirety of a move, in hindsight, means next to nothing. You've got to have a plan as to how you would manage the trade, in real-time. Annotating the good as well as the warts of your interpretation also is the first step determining probabilities.
Now then, I understand this is a new journal and maybe you NEED to wait before paper or actual trading what you are seeing. But as I pointed out, you already have several potential trade triggers! Are any of them worthwhile FOR YOU, in real-time? Maybe a S/R tap shows a 3 point move, but based on your entry/exit technique, that type of trade will yield you one and half points, with a 1 point stop, 85% of the time!! I don't know. And where would YOU enter on a W pattern and place a stop? What is the expectation? Maybe it's a bar count and not a point value. I don't know. Why wait to start determining that kind of stuff? FWIW... you really only need to master 1 setup to be consistent. But that's a different topic.
And since you are using a CV chart (or a second or tick chart) you can not claim you expect to have to have "time" to make your chart interpretations and trade executions. I'm not sure YOU can make those identifications and trade executions in real-time with YOUR charts.
Just trying to collapse your learning time frame. You have enough to get footing.
Action begets results (good or bad). Results begets the same or different actions.
Trade On!
Im a bit "concerned" this thread is just a "hindsight" chart reading lab.
Here's what I mean...
Several annotated charts have been posted.
Several "potential" trade triggers have been identified such as H&S, S/R, W-pattern and trendlines.
Yet there is no mentions or activities encompassing...
1) Making these identifications in REAL-TIME: AS/WHEN/IF the potential trade-trigger(s) are in process of being formed or approaching zones.
2) Annotating paper (or actual) trades on the chart, with targets and stops. Seeing the entirety of a move, in hindsight, means next to nothing. You've got to have a plan as to how you would manage the trade, in real-time. Annotating the good as well as the warts of your interpretation also is the first step determining probabilities.
Now then, I understand this is a new journal and maybe you NEED to wait before paper or actual trading what you are seeing. But as I pointed out, you already have several potential trade triggers! Are any of them worthwhile FOR YOU, in real-time? Maybe a S/R tap shows a 3 point move, but based on your entry/exit technique, that type of trade will yield you one and half points, with a 1 point stop, 85% of the time!! I don't know. And where would YOU enter on a W pattern and place a stop? What is the expectation? Maybe it's a bar count and not a point value. I don't know. Why wait to start determining that kind of stuff? FWIW... you really only need to master 1 setup to be consistent. But that's a different topic.
And since you are using a CV chart (or a second or tick chart) you can not claim you expect to have to have "time" to make your chart interpretations and trade executions. I'm not sure YOU can make those identifications and trade executions in real-time with YOUR charts.
Just trying to collapse your learning time frame. You have enough to get footing.
Action begets results (good or bad). Results begets the same or different actions.
Trade On!
As per usual lol
Well I only know of a few:
Head and shoulders
Inverse head and shoulders
M top
W bottom
2t
2b
Double top
Double bottom
But as I pointed out in another thread, all patterns are pretty much the same anyway, so I suspect there is more to it than just pattern identification. Obviously a bottom is going to be either a LL or a DB. It can't be anything else. Obviously a top is going to be a HH or a DT. It can't be anything else.
So I am wondering if the correct way to trade is to say "ok, price just completed a W bottom pattern, now I should go long" or if the correct way to trade is to say "price is making bottom right now which will coincidentally form a W bottom, and I should go long now."
Cool, so I'm 1/3 of the way there.
Would you mind sharing some quantifiable specifics regarding market context and trade signal?
Is market context something like if a longer term chart is in an up trend or down trend?
Is trade signal something like entering at a specific point in the pattern?
Market Context involves knowing the who and why the price action is doing what it is doing.
Trade Signal is just another price action pattern but on a smaller level in comparison to pattern signal. For example, using what you've summarize so far...W pattern would be your "pattern signal" and 2b would be your "trade signal". You can then maintain your own statistics of whatever it is you call a W pattern with whatever it is you call a 2b. Therefore, to answer your question about trade signal...trade signal gives you a specific point to enter into the pattern signal.
Some price action traders use chart analysis to give them their trade signal into patterns while other price action traders use Times & Sales, Bid/Ask analysis to give them their trade signal into patterns.