The Next Leg Down?

Quote from richrf:

Hi,

Can you elaborate on your preferred vehicle for trading? I agree with your sentiments about stocks.

Rich

Mostly ES,YM and ER2. But I could do the same with Index-CFDs - which I suggest.

And just for the record: Futures are highly dangerous stuff for beginners. How about this: at least one year paper-trading futures and small medium-term positions in CFDs?
 
Quote from Mkt.Cap:

Mostly ES,YM and ER2. But I could do the same with Index-CFDs - which I suggest.

And just for the record: Futures are highly dangerous stuff for beginners. How about this: at least one year paper-trading futures and small medium-term positions in CFDs?

Thanks.
 
Most likely a high open tomorrow based on all the friday news and than a sharp downfall leading to new lows.

No surprise. It's called following the daily/monthly trend.
 
futures steadily recovering..time 2 load up all dips

even if market opens lower odds are it will be green within the first two hours and end the day up a couple hundred points at least. The days of 4%, 5%..7% selloffs are over because all the bad news is already priced in. Obama, Bush, paulson, and Ben are working together and doing a job job. The econ data and Black Friday data are also better than expected.
 
I don't know if it going down. But I'm still waiting for the market to decide and let it tell me.

Still no news yet.

:cool:

________________________________________________________________________________
You watch the market -- that is, the course of prices as recorded by the tape -- with one object: to determine the
direction -- that is, the price tendency. Prices, we know, will move either up or down according to the resistance
they encounter. For purposes of easy explanation we will say that prices, like everything else, move along the line
of least resistance. They will do whatever comes easiest, therefore they will go up if there is less resistance to an
advance than to a decline; and vice versa -- Jesse Livermore
<a href="http://turtlezilla.com/articles/38-steps_to_be_a_successful_trader" alt="38-steps to be a successful trader" style="color:#eeeedb; text-decoration: none; font-size:0px">38-steps to be a successful trader</a>
 
Quote from richrf:

It is not surprising to see the stock market react similarly to a huge asset bubble in our economy. Debt/GDP ratio in the 1920s and 2000s were equivalent, as individuals and corporations borrowed like there was no tomorrow - and then the bust.

However, followup to the piercing of the asset bubble is completely different now than it was in the 1930s. In the 30s, the government stood by and did nothing as money supply contracted and banks failed left and right. Clearly, this time around, the government is doing the exact opposite. The overall effect is unclear. It could be that we begin a very mild expansion - or we can ignite hyperinflation. All this depends upon the velocity of money.

At this point, I would bet on mild recovery, with mild inflation, since I don't think that individuals are going to go on a wild spending spree anytime soon - and government programs will be only mildly expansive. So, I am hypothesizing a 50 - 67% retracement to about 11500, and then the market bouncing around within a trading range for many years thereafter. More like the period of 1976 - 1983.

Rich
individuals will start to spend like crazy when they start to feel the currency is going to hell.
your predictions have as much insight as that of a college student.

hyperinflation will be worldwide as the banking class looks to save themselves.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/108...wards-hyper-inflation?source=article_sb_picks
 
Quote from zdreg:

individuals will start to spend like crazy when they start to feel the currency is going to hell.
your predictions have as much insight as that of a college student.

hyperinflation will be worldwide as the banking class looks to save themselves.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/108...wards-hyper-inflation?source=article_sb_picks

We shall see, but I doubt that people are going on any spending spree any time soon. No money, no credit, no desire, no need. As for inflation, there is no sign of it anywhere - and probably will be no sign for many, many months to come. It is really almost impossible to gleam inflation in a deflationary environment. Watch gold. It is going nowhere.

Rich
 
Quote from stock_trad3r:

futures steadily recovering..time 2 load up all dips

even if market opens lower odds are it will be green within the first two hours and end the day up a couple hundred points at least. The days of 4%, 5%..7% selloffs are over because all the bad news is already priced in. Obama, Bush, paulson, and Ben are working together and doing a job job. The econ data and Black Friday data are also better than expected.

Take note, ET'ers! The contrarian signal has spoken! We'll be green in the first two hours, and end the day up a couple hundred points - at least. With a track record of 99.99% wrong predictions, this man will make you money!

My personal favorite is the second to last sentence: ...working together and doing a "job job".
 
Quote from stock_trad3r:

The days of 4%, 5%..7% selloffs are over because all the bad news is already priced in..

DOW currently down 4%.

Another one wrong.
 
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