Quote from richrf:
It is not surprising to see the stock market react similarly to a huge asset bubble in our economy. Debt/GDP ratio in the 1920s and 2000s were equivalent, as individuals and corporations borrowed like there was no tomorrow - and then the bust.
However, followup to the piercing of the asset bubble is completely different now than it was in the 1930s. In the 30s, the government stood by and did nothing as money supply contracted and banks failed left and right. Clearly, this time around, the government is doing the exact opposite. The overall effect is unclear. It could be that we begin a very mild expansion - or we can ignite hyperinflation. All this depends upon the velocity of money.
At this point, I would bet on mild recovery, with mild inflation, since I don't think that individuals are going to go on a wild spending spree anytime soon - and government programs will be only mildly expansive. So, I am hypothesizing a 50 - 67% retracement to about 11500, and then the market bouncing around within a trading range for many years thereafter. More like the period of 1976 - 1983.
Rich