The Next Bubble

[Topsurfi]

Quote from ByLoSellHi:

China is the next bubble,
China is about to implode. [/B]

there seems a little contradiction there.
How often have you been in China ?

 

[lemeeeplay]

Quote from BlueHorseshoe:

When you are starving this very instant, drinking contaminated water and with no economic prospect ... you don't have the luxury of thinking '20-50 years down the line.'

And the government can't afford to wait 20-50 years when the country is awash in riotous chaos.

My in-laws lived through the rioting in Indonesia when Suharto was overthrown during the Asian financial crisis. (Remember that one?) Mother-in-law took a brick through her rear windshield. Wasn't so long ago ...

They escaped China just as the Great Cultural Revolution was getting underway. Listen to the people in Guangdong province tell of watching hundreds of bodies floating down the Pearl River and its many tributaries. Nobody fished them out for fear of being accused of sympathizing with 'criminals.' It is still in living memory, and that same restlessness still simmers below the surface ...

Indonesia's turmoil was rooted in ethnic conflict, which was triggered by an economic melt down. Many of those south east asian countries are torn societies, where 5-10% ethnic Chinese control 80+% of the economy. China doesn't have this problem as they are one of the most homogeneous societies in the world.

As for the government's obsession with the 8% growth rate, it basically comes down to overambitious goals set forth by somewhat self deluded new bourgeois class. These guys have been reading too many "rising tiger" type books that flooded the market in the 90s. They think they will become a super power in a few years which is nonsense. Their entire economy is based on selling goods and services to an existing to super power, so any shakeup in the world power structure will hurt them greatly. So you can take that 8% benchmark for a grain of salt.