The Next Bubble

Read Harpers February 2008, whole magazine was not too bad, being British l always find it hard that US has such decent quasi literary magazines, New Yorker,Harpers e.t.c. The media always gives us an impression that all you guys do is hunting,drive 8 litre
SUVs and eat burgers with fries & syrup with 2 gallon soda cans. Yes British teeth are not exactly the best around...... :D


http://harpers.org/archive/2008/02/0081908
 
Quote from BlueHorseshoe:

Everybody is caught up in the unwind of our late, great, leveraged real estate bubble. In a short order it will be old history.

Where is the next bubble, that should be ridden for the next several years??

1. China

The Chinese government will inflate their way out of anything. It is absolutely dependent on economic growth for survival - social chaos is right around the corner - more than westerners can really grasp. For some color read here:
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Why China wants to inflate itself of the hole? It has lots of cash and owns a lot bonds, for which the worst thing is inflation.
 
Quote from Topsurfi:

someone already answered it.
Its US-Bonds (30 years are the biggest of all bubbles).
You are right that dept has reached the point of no return so in the future Bonds will go to near zero. Its however difficult to time eaxctly when this will happen and when will be the best time to short Bonds. I am currently already starting averaging into my Bond shorts.

If Bonds behave in this recession like in other recessions we will see a low in interest rates around 2010. The low in 30year's Bonds after in the after - 1929 depression was around 2 percent. But gouvernment dept situation that time was far less in terms of GDP than now so I can't see 2% coming. I estimate the risc on 2.5% on the 30years thats a potential loss of around 10k$ per contract on the ZB. It could well be that the low is around the corner, who knows...On the other side, 10% yield on the 30years can be reached very fast once credit rating of USA gets into question. I have hardly ever seen a trade setup with such a nice risc-reward ratio.
I am very patient on this trade and it will make me millions.
Need a time frame of 10 years, sorry.
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I like the thought process, and approach. Would just suggest you take a look at Bonds' seasonal charts as I've found them good as clockwork for entries and exits.

If you are going to 'trade' a long-term trend, it helps to be adept in the shorter timeframes as well.
 
Quote from pepper_john:

Why China wants to inflate itself of the hole? It has lots of cash and owns a lot bonds, for which the worst thing is inflation.
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Because the communist regime would rather SURVIVE than max their portfolio returns.

You're missing the forest for the trees.
 
Quote from BlueHorseshoe:

I like the thought process, and approach. Would just suggest you take a look at Bonds' seasonal charts as I've found them good as clockwork for entries and exits.

If you are going to 'trade' a long-term trend, it helps to be adept in the shorter timeframes as well.
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in a shorter timeframe it looks like the ZB needs another test of its 130 panic spice and I would not surprised if it gets even higher. So for short term trading I would not short it now.
But I have different approaches in different time frames.
 
Obviously, US Govt debt

The amount of debt issued by or guaranteed by the Federal Govt has literally gone parabolic in the past few years and months
 
Quote from thriftybob:

Obviously, US Govt debt

The amount of debt issued by or guaranteed by the Federal Govt has literally gone parabolic in the past few years and months
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What is the play on that, gold & silver?
 
Just gold, I think, but when, I don't know. I expect a devaluation of the dollar in the next years. Just like in 1933, except this time there is very little gold to back it with, and huge structural debt and deficit problems.
 
Quote from BlueHorseshoe:

Because the communist regime would rather SURVIVE than max their portfolio returns.

You're missing the forest for the trees.
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is there any difference between what US is trying to do and what China is?
 
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