The Next Bubble
- Thread starter BlueHorseshoe
- Start date
Other than a major regional war, the above is the only thing I can foresee creating more than anemic global growth over the next decade or so. Huge amounts of debt has to be cleared, so we obviously won't have debt fueled growth for quite some time.
I believe a Green Tech revolution could be larger than even the dotcom boom, but with real products this time.
I do not believe we will have the technology to accomplish this on a competitive economic scale for quite some time however.
Of course, there are many scenarios I do not foresee, and would love to see input from people who can think of something that will lead to strong global growth. And please do not say China. They are not going to do much without the rest of the World purchasing their stuff on a massive scale.
Health Care.
Its not an area that I'm terribly familiar with. But the boomers are just beginning to retire, so in that way the demand curve has just barely begun to tip upward. How to play it, I'm not sure. Funeral homes? Retirement Centers? Listed hospitals?? Could be negative for a lot of industries also, as retirees downsize their lifestyles? An interesting, but complex play. Not as simple as inflation = buy gold.
Its not an area that I'm terribly familiar with. But the boomers are just beginning to retire, so in that way the demand curve has just barely begun to tip upward. How to play it, I'm not sure. Funeral homes? Retirement Centers? Listed hospitals?? Could be negative for a lot of industries also, as retirees downsize their lifestyles? An interesting, but complex play. Not as simple as inflation = buy gold.
Health care. I talk to boomers about healthy diet and half of them roll their eyes up in their head and turn towards the tv or tell me what a wonderful doctor they have so yes, health care will boom a little. Alternate energies will boom too, the technology is here though some don't know that.
The technology is here, but its expensive, thus the problem.
I don't see how health care could lead to a global boom. The sector could boom, but its not going to create wealth and jobs on a massive scale overall. At least I don't see how it could.
I wouldn't be surprised to see much of the industry socialized as it is in most countries anyway.
I don't see how health care could lead to a global boom. The sector could boom, but its not going to create wealth and jobs on a massive scale overall. At least I don't see how it could.
I wouldn't be surprised to see much of the industry socialized as it is in most countries anyway.
Sure, but alternate energies require innovation, and we must only guess what will work and what won't. Lots of companies will go bankrupt, only a few will succeed. Highly speculative. The internet is a boon, Webvan a bust.
As for aging boomer generation, it's already in the cards. We can track population numbers, do the actuarial work on lifespans and spending patterns, etc. etc. In that way I'd rather play health care than alternative energy. Health care will be less exciting, with less of a 'new' factor (how to get excited about old age and dying?), but I suspect much more lucrative.
China ?
Man, the bubble just imploded. Game over.
Chinese stocks were just like the junk sold by China
Commodities
Two things are certain :
1) it 's been a bubble
2) it's been popped
So essentially you are betting on a repeat. Given the cyclicality of commodities that 's possible. But the dollar... has turned around you'd be a fool not to see it.
Then I would have to conclude, that those won't be the next bubbles and that a depression is likely since no apparent bubble is there to save us.
Next bubble could be gold, but it would have to rise without a dollar collapse. Also , govt bonds.
New technologies : , energies, nanotechnology, antimatter and other dangerous stuff created by mad scientists.
Man, the bubble just imploded. Game over.
Chinese stocks were just like the junk sold by China
Commodities
Two things are certain :
1) it 's been a bubble
2) it's been popped
So essentially you are betting on a repeat. Given the cyclicality of commodities that 's possible. But the dollar... has turned around you'd be a fool not to see it.
Then I would have to conclude, that those won't be the next bubbles and that a depression is likely since no apparent bubble is there to save us.
Next bubble could be gold, but it would have to rise without a dollar collapse. Also , govt bonds.
New technologies : , energies, nanotechnology, antimatter and other dangerous stuff created by mad scientists.
someone already answered it.
Its US-Bonds (30 years are the biggest of all bubbles).
You are right that dept has reached the point of no return so in the future Bonds will go to near zero. Its however difficult to time eaxctly when this will happen and when will be the best time to short Bonds. I am currently already starting averaging into my Bond shorts.
If Bonds behave in this recession like in other recessions we will see a low in interest rates around 2010. The low in 30year's Bonds after in the after - 1929 depression was around 2 percent. But gouvernment dept situation that time was far less in terms of GDP than now so I can't see 2% coming. I estimate the risc on 2.5% on the 30years thats a potential loss of around 10k$ per contract on the ZB. It could well be that the low is around the corner, who knows...On the other side, 10% yield on the 30years can be reached very fast once credit rating of USA gets into question. I have hardly ever seen a trade setup with such a nice risc-reward ratio.
I am very patient on this trade and it will make me millions.
Need a time frame of 10 years, sorry.
Its US-Bonds (30 years are the biggest of all bubbles).
You are right that dept has reached the point of no return so in the future Bonds will go to near zero. Its however difficult to time eaxctly when this will happen and when will be the best time to short Bonds. I am currently already starting averaging into my Bond shorts.
If Bonds behave in this recession like in other recessions we will see a low in interest rates around 2010. The low in 30year's Bonds after in the after - 1929 depression was around 2 percent. But gouvernment dept situation that time was far less in terms of GDP than now so I can't see 2% coming. I estimate the risc on 2.5% on the 30years thats a potential loss of around 10k$ per contract on the ZB. It could well be that the low is around the corner, who knows...On the other side, 10% yield on the 30years can be reached very fast once credit rating of USA gets into question. I have hardly ever seen a trade setup with such a nice risc-reward ratio.
I am very patient on this trade and it will make me millions.
Need a time frame of 10 years, sorry.