the stillers will be the pats only loss 
The National Football League-that was the week that was
- Thread starter AAAintheBeltway
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Quote from Pekelo:
Now that was some comeback from the Steelers, wasn't it?
So close...
I feel very lucky in passing on all this weekend's games. I liked the Redskins at home against the Eagles. The Skins pretty much dominated the game, but couldn't punch it in twice from inside the 5, then after S Sean Taylor got knocked out of the game in the second half, the Eagles managed to score on a 45 yard pass into double coverage and a 57 yard screen pass catch and run. The loss echoed an earlier hiome loss to the Giants when the Skins couldn't score on two opportunities from their 2. The newspapers are full of criticism of Coach Gibbs for questionable strategy, such as going for a two point conversion in the first half after missing a PAT on their first TD, and wasting a timeout in the second half on a field goal atempt from the 5.
I thought the Colts would be able to cover against the Chargers but Manning threw six INTs, and they lost the game as clutch kicker Adam Viniateri missed a 29 yard FG with the Colts trailing by 2.
I liked the Cowboys against the Giants, just not enough to take them, and they covered pretty easily after a tight first half. Call me crazy, but if I'm a defensive coordinator playing the 'Boys, I double cover TO the whole game and take my chances elsewhere.
Cleveland loss a heartbreaker against the Steelers but did beat the spread. The other two darkhorse teams, the Lions and the Bills, were not so fortunate. The Lions learned first hand that Arizona means business at home, as the Cards rolled to a 10 point win. Wonder how it felt for Mike Martz to watch Kurt Warner throw three TDs? Detroit's problems were not Warner however, it was turnovers, 2 INTs and 3 lost fumbles doomed them. The Bills beat the Dolphins by 3, a push.
Probably the biggest surprise was winless St. Louis going into NO and defeating the Saints. Sweet day for Rams defensive coordinator Jim Haslet, who was fired as Saints' headcoach after the disastrous Katrina season.
In other games, the Ravens continue to stink and lost to Cincy's SEVEN Fgs. Carolina managed to lose to Atlanta, proving again that it is tough to lose all your QBs and be competitive.
Tennessee is a team I have constantly avoided because i don't trust Vince Young and the team seems to have a habit of getting it done with mirrors. Maybe that has something to do with Coach Jeff Fisher being one of the league's best. The magic ran out for them against the Jags yesterday. Injuries to DT Haynesworth and RB Chris Brown didn't help.
GB rolled against the Vikes, and Vikes Coach Brad Childress may be on the hot seat after the week's fiasco over fining a player a gamecheck who missed last week's game to attend his grandmother's funeral.
I thought the Colts would be able to cover against the Chargers but Manning threw six INTs, and they lost the game as clutch kicker Adam Viniateri missed a 29 yard FG with the Colts trailing by 2.
I liked the Cowboys against the Giants, just not enough to take them, and they covered pretty easily after a tight first half. Call me crazy, but if I'm a defensive coordinator playing the 'Boys, I double cover TO the whole game and take my chances elsewhere.
Cleveland loss a heartbreaker against the Steelers but did beat the spread. The other two darkhorse teams, the Lions and the Bills, were not so fortunate. The Lions learned first hand that Arizona means business at home, as the Cards rolled to a 10 point win. Wonder how it felt for Mike Martz to watch Kurt Warner throw three TDs? Detroit's problems were not Warner however, it was turnovers, 2 INTs and 3 lost fumbles doomed them. The Bills beat the Dolphins by 3, a push.
Probably the biggest surprise was winless St. Louis going into NO and defeating the Saints. Sweet day for Rams defensive coordinator Jim Haslet, who was fired as Saints' headcoach after the disastrous Katrina season.
In other games, the Ravens continue to stink and lost to Cincy's SEVEN Fgs. Carolina managed to lose to Atlanta, proving again that it is tough to lose all your QBs and be competitive.
Tennessee is a team I have constantly avoided because i don't trust Vince Young and the team seems to have a habit of getting it done with mirrors. Maybe that has something to do with Coach Jeff Fisher being one of the league's best. The magic ran out for them against the Jags yesterday. Injuries to DT Haynesworth and RB Chris Brown didn't help.
GB rolled against the Vikes, and Vikes Coach Brad Childress may be on the hot seat after the week's fiasco over fining a player a gamecheck who missed last week's game to attend his grandmother's funeral.
Tony Kornholehiser needs to go away post haste. Jeeze and I thought Joe Theeseman and Dennis "douche bag" Miller were bad.
ABC/ESPN is just horrible these days.
ABC/ESPN is just horrible these days.
It hurts to pass on a game you like, then watch the team you liked roll to an easy victory. Take last night for example. Taking the Seahawks and giving 10 to visiting SF was my top play last week, but I saw enough question marks to avoid it. Seattle's best player, Shaun Alexander, was out. Seattle has been inconsistent, etc etc. I neglected to consider just how awful SF is. I guess they have had some injuries on their O line and it showed. Their offense looked like last night was their first time facing a blitz. Alex Smith got clobbered repeatedly. The run game couldn't pick up the slack, and they ended up getting blanked 24-0.
OK sorry, running a bit late this week.
What was once the premier rivalry in the NFL, Redskins-Cowboys, resumes this week as the Skins travel to Dallas as 10 1/2 point 'dogs. The Skins have gone down to the last play in all but two games, making the big spread look enticing. However, their struggling offense will be at even more of a disadvantage this week, as three of their top four receivers are out and the fourth, number two receiver Randal El has a hamstring but will play. They will go with 37 year old Keenan McKardell and never used Reche Caldwell, and possibly Jimmy Farris, a former practice squad player signed this week. RB Clinton Portis has been revitalized the last two weeks, and if the Skins run game is productive, they could challenge the shaky Dallas D. However, Pro Bowl S Sean Taylor is out, leaving their vulnerable secondary even more exposed. Since he was a rookie, Taylor has made it a point to smack TO every chance he gets, and without the thought of a career-ending hit in his mind, look for TO to have a big day. I'm tempted by the points, but too many injury and coaching issues with the Skins. Avoid.
Baltimore is in the rare position of being a home underdog as they get 3 points from visiting Cleveland. I look for a lot of action on this game, as the Ravens have been awful and Cleveland is the hottest team in the league. Browns QB Derek Anderson was cut by the Ravens two years ago, so he might have something to prove as well. So why am I staying away? Number one, I respect the Ravens defense. Number two, sooner or later their offense will get lucky and score an actual TD. This could be the week. Number three, the Browns are a hot team, but they are not an elite team and covering on the road is not easy. Avoid.
An interesting matchup features Jacksonville at home against SD. The Jags are a 3 point favorite against the team that defeated the Colts last weekend. The Bolts have sucked on the road and could see a let down. The Jags have produced a decent season so far, but I don't think they are on the same page talent-wise as SD, so I'm passing on this one.
Indy is a 14 1/2 favorite at home against KC. KC is a decent defensive team, but they are playing without RB Larry Johnson. Indy has lost DE Dwight Freeny for the year. Coming off a tough loss to SD, I'm not sure which Indy team we get, one looking to make a statement or one that is wearing down from injuries and tough games. Just too big a spread for me, so avoid.
Minnesota gets 5 at home against Oakland. No Adrian, no Vikes as far as I'm concenred, but no way I'm taking the Raiders. Avoid.
The woeful Jets host the Steelers as 9 1/2 point home underdogs. Keys here are the Steelers have sucked on the road, but the Jets have sucked everywhere. Avoid.
Tampa Bay visits Atlanta. Who cares? Not me.
Ditto Cincy/Arizona.
The Iggles are back at home against the Dolphins and are giving 10. Philly was awfully lucky to defeat Washington last week, but they did win, something Miami has not been able to accomplish. I look for the McNabbs to roll, so I'm giving the points here, with apologies to El Cubano.
NE goes to Buffalo as 16 point favorites. Buffalo is a surprising team. They probably get blown out, but who knows what the weather is this weekend? Too many points to give on the road, so avoid this one.
Houston is a 1 1/2 favorite at home against NO. The teams have identical records and near identical points for and against totals. NO has been frighteningly inconsistent, and Houston has had some tough breaks. I like houston here but not enough to go with them. Avoid.
GB gets 9 1/2 at home against the QB-less Panthers. Probably GB is a solid choice here, but call me skeptical. Gb has been extremely lucky this season. They should have lost to the Redskins and Eagles, they just pulled out the KC game, and if they played NY now, I wouldn't like them. They also seem to have a lot of injury issues. Against that, Carolina has no QBs and seems to have slipped from an elite team into a middle range team at best. Tough one, I really want to take GB but a couple of INTs and that big spread becomes insurmountable. Avoid.
The NY Giants visit Detroit as 3 point favorites. Both teams have good offenses, so look for a shootout here. I just think the Giants are too physical for Detroit to handle all day. Give the points.
St. Louis takes its one victory to SF as a 3 point favorite. SF looked completely terrible losing to Seattle Monday night. St. Louis is a different team with Bulger at QB. Still, they've won one game and are on the road. SF has scored the fewest points in the entire league, fewer even than the Redskins. Only three teams have given up more points than St. Louis however, the Browns, the Bengals and the Dolphins. Call me crazy, but I'm taking St. Louis and giving Sf the points.
Seattle is a 5 1/2 point favorite hosting the Bears Sunday night. Rex Grossman will be back under center for the Bears. I'm not sure of Shaun Alexander's status, so I will have to pass on this one, even though I like Seattle. If he can't go, the one dimensional attack they used against SF could be a problem against the Bear's defense. Avoid.
In the feature MNF matchup, Denver is at home against the Titans as 2 point favorites. Two inconsistent teams, two great coaches. Stay away from this one.
What was once the premier rivalry in the NFL, Redskins-Cowboys, resumes this week as the Skins travel to Dallas as 10 1/2 point 'dogs. The Skins have gone down to the last play in all but two games, making the big spread look enticing. However, their struggling offense will be at even more of a disadvantage this week, as three of their top four receivers are out and the fourth, number two receiver Randal El has a hamstring but will play. They will go with 37 year old Keenan McKardell and never used Reche Caldwell, and possibly Jimmy Farris, a former practice squad player signed this week. RB Clinton Portis has been revitalized the last two weeks, and if the Skins run game is productive, they could challenge the shaky Dallas D. However, Pro Bowl S Sean Taylor is out, leaving their vulnerable secondary even more exposed. Since he was a rookie, Taylor has made it a point to smack TO every chance he gets, and without the thought of a career-ending hit in his mind, look for TO to have a big day. I'm tempted by the points, but too many injury and coaching issues with the Skins. Avoid.
Baltimore is in the rare position of being a home underdog as they get 3 points from visiting Cleveland. I look for a lot of action on this game, as the Ravens have been awful and Cleveland is the hottest team in the league. Browns QB Derek Anderson was cut by the Ravens two years ago, so he might have something to prove as well. So why am I staying away? Number one, I respect the Ravens defense. Number two, sooner or later their offense will get lucky and score an actual TD. This could be the week. Number three, the Browns are a hot team, but they are not an elite team and covering on the road is not easy. Avoid.
An interesting matchup features Jacksonville at home against SD. The Jags are a 3 point favorite against the team that defeated the Colts last weekend. The Bolts have sucked on the road and could see a let down. The Jags have produced a decent season so far, but I don't think they are on the same page talent-wise as SD, so I'm passing on this one.
Indy is a 14 1/2 favorite at home against KC. KC is a decent defensive team, but they are playing without RB Larry Johnson. Indy has lost DE Dwight Freeny for the year. Coming off a tough loss to SD, I'm not sure which Indy team we get, one looking to make a statement or one that is wearing down from injuries and tough games. Just too big a spread for me, so avoid.
Minnesota gets 5 at home against Oakland. No Adrian, no Vikes as far as I'm concenred, but no way I'm taking the Raiders. Avoid.
The woeful Jets host the Steelers as 9 1/2 point home underdogs. Keys here are the Steelers have sucked on the road, but the Jets have sucked everywhere. Avoid.
Tampa Bay visits Atlanta. Who cares? Not me.
Ditto Cincy/Arizona.
The Iggles are back at home against the Dolphins and are giving 10. Philly was awfully lucky to defeat Washington last week, but they did win, something Miami has not been able to accomplish. I look for the McNabbs to roll, so I'm giving the points here, with apologies to El Cubano.
NE goes to Buffalo as 16 point favorites. Buffalo is a surprising team. They probably get blown out, but who knows what the weather is this weekend? Too many points to give on the road, so avoid this one.
Houston is a 1 1/2 favorite at home against NO. The teams have identical records and near identical points for and against totals. NO has been frighteningly inconsistent, and Houston has had some tough breaks. I like houston here but not enough to go with them. Avoid.
GB gets 9 1/2 at home against the QB-less Panthers. Probably GB is a solid choice here, but call me skeptical. Gb has been extremely lucky this season. They should have lost to the Redskins and Eagles, they just pulled out the KC game, and if they played NY now, I wouldn't like them. They also seem to have a lot of injury issues. Against that, Carolina has no QBs and seems to have slipped from an elite team into a middle range team at best. Tough one, I really want to take GB but a couple of INTs and that big spread becomes insurmountable. Avoid.
The NY Giants visit Detroit as 3 point favorites. Both teams have good offenses, so look for a shootout here. I just think the Giants are too physical for Detroit to handle all day. Give the points.
St. Louis takes its one victory to SF as a 3 point favorite. SF looked completely terrible losing to Seattle Monday night. St. Louis is a different team with Bulger at QB. Still, they've won one game and are on the road. SF has scored the fewest points in the entire league, fewer even than the Redskins. Only three teams have given up more points than St. Louis however, the Browns, the Bengals and the Dolphins. Call me crazy, but I'm taking St. Louis and giving Sf the points.
Seattle is a 5 1/2 point favorite hosting the Bears Sunday night. Rex Grossman will be back under center for the Bears. I'm not sure of Shaun Alexander's status, so I will have to pass on this one, even though I like Seattle. If he can't go, the one dimensional attack they used against SF could be a problem against the Bear's defense. Avoid.
In the feature MNF matchup, Denver is at home against the Titans as 2 point favorites. Two inconsistent teams, two great coaches. Stay away from this one.
AAA, I concur with your analysis, especially the Giants and St. Louis games. Enough to place a wager on each.
I think Houston has a very good chance to spank NO with the return of Schaub and Andre Johnson. It depends a lot on which NO team shows up. They've been very Jekyll and Hyde this season...
My poor Dolphins - the misery continues!
I think Houston has a very good chance to spank NO with the return of Schaub and Andre Johnson. It depends a lot on which NO team shows up. They've been very Jekyll and Hyde this season...
My poor Dolphins - the misery continues!
I just saw the injury reports and the Eagle's RB Westbrook didn't practice two days this week and is questionable for this week. That makes me rethink the Eagles pick, since he is their entire offense. Certainly if he can't go the spread will drop. I will stick with the pick but I will adjust the spread if the line moves. For the Redskins, Santana Moss did practice yesterday and is apparently going to play. I don't think his status will have much effect on the line, maybe a half point, but this was not one of my picks anyway. Moss has had a terrible year, leading the team in drops with 6, many when he was wide open, and cost them the GB game with his fumble on an end around.
This brings up the subject of moves in the betting line. Some players believe strongly that you should go with the move, as it can indicate big money is jumping in on one side. I tend to agree with this school, although you have to be careful that the line hasn't moved too far or just because the public loves a team.
A related concept is the opportunity to put on a spread or hedged bet. Say you have the Pats giving 16. During the week and after you've locked in your bet, the line moves to 20. Now you have the opportunity to take the 20. If the Pats win by 17, 18 or 19 points, you win both bets. If they win by 20 or 16, you win one and push the other. Any other result, and you will be out the vig on the losing bet. Of course,without the spread, you would be out both the bet and the vig if they didn't cover the 16, so you are really only giving up something if they cover the new spread, the 20 points. This can be a good bet on something like the Super Bowl where there is tremendous interest, and the line is subject to being adjusted to even out the action.
This brings up the subject of moves in the betting line. Some players believe strongly that you should go with the move, as it can indicate big money is jumping in on one side. I tend to agree with this school, although you have to be careful that the line hasn't moved too far or just because the public loves a team.
A related concept is the opportunity to put on a spread or hedged bet. Say you have the Pats giving 16. During the week and after you've locked in your bet, the line moves to 20. Now you have the opportunity to take the 20. If the Pats win by 17, 18 or 19 points, you win both bets. If they win by 20 or 16, you win one and push the other. Any other result, and you will be out the vig on the losing bet. Of course,without the spread, you would be out both the bet and the vig if they didn't cover the 16, so you are really only giving up something if they cover the new spread, the 20 points. This can be a good bet on something like the Super Bowl where there is tremendous interest, and the line is subject to being adjusted to even out the action.