Time to take a look at this weekend's games. To do it, I will have to remove the paper bag I've worn over my head all week, after last week's disastrous pick of the Skins and points against the Belichiks. Actually, I blame it all on El cubano. He shamed me into going with my home team, a rookie betting mistake that will cost you every time.
Looking over the lines, i was struck by the power of the home field advantage. Only five home teams are underdogs, and some decent squads playing on the road are underdogs, eg Seattle, Carolina, and GB. Most linesmakers give the home team an extra 3 points or so, and it's easy to overlook this crucial factor and find yourself taking a lot of visiting teams.
The big game this week is obviously the Redskins/Jets clash at the Meadowlands, famous as the final resting place of one James Hoffa. The Skins are 3 1/2 point favorites, which seems light against a 1-7 team with major injury woes, starting a new QB. Of course, the linesmakers have to factor in last week's total fold job by the Skins and their inability to do anything on offense except hand turnovers to the other team. Newsflash: the Jets defense is a tiny bit worse than the Pats. In fact, only four teams have allowed more points. If the Skins are ever going to get their offense going, this is the week. But if the Jets are ever going to play some D, this is the week. I like the Skins a lot here, but every game, except last week, has come down to the final play. I don't want any part of that.
In other games, NE visits Indy and gets 5 points. On paper, this looks like an interesting line. The Colts are undefeated, and have a stingy defense. Their offense is potent and can both score and generate first downs. For once, NE might have to play from behind. Still, we know how good Indy is, good enought to win the Super Bowl last year. We really don't know how good the Pats are, and this game is their opportunity to make a statement. I'd prefer not to take the other side of that. Avoid.
Surprising KC sits atop the AFC West with a 4-3 record and plays host to GB. Gb is 6-1 and has had a great start to the season. so they're favored, right? Uh, no, KC is by 2 points. GB barely got by Denver in OT, and KC is better than Denver. Still, I'm not impressed by KC at all. If Favre can avoid turning it over, I like GB to win the game, which is all they have to do. GB and the 2 points.
Arizona visits TB. Weather could be a factor here, as there is a tropical storm in the area. Maybe it's gone by game time, i haven't checked the forecast. I can't get a handle on either of these teams, so even though I like TB giving 3 1/2 I think I will pass. TB let me down once before, so I'm not giving them another chance.
The Titans host the Panthers and are 4 point favorites. All of Carolina's QBs are hurt, and Vince Young is way too inconsistent to bet on. Avoid.
Atlanta is at home against SF. With two terrible teams, anything can happen, so I don't want any part of this one.
An interesting game features NO hosting Jacksonville. NO is a 3 point favorite, but Jags QB David Garrard is out. Which NO team shows up? If you know, you might want to give the 3, but I am not impressed by NO and will avoid this one.
Denver takes their fast-fading playoff hopes to Detroit and a Lions team that seems to believe they are playoff contenders. Well, they're 5-2 and have beaten division rival chicago twice, so maybe theyhave a point. Denver will play without Javon Walker, which had to factor into the 3 points they are getting. This is an intruiging game, as Denvers defense sucks big time and the Lions can move the ball. With Denver coming off a tough Monday night loss, I'm going with the Lions here.
Cincinnati brings their terrible defense to Buffalo and is a 1 point favorite. There are four teams in the league which have not totalled 100 points so far, and surprisingly the Redskins are not among them. Buffalo is. I really want to take Buffalo here, but Cincy can light up the scoreboard. If they hit a couple of long passes, game over. So better avoid this one.
SD visits the Vikes and is a 7 point favorite. Lot of points for a visiting team. I'm very reluctant to get involved with the Chargers, although they do seem to have things turned around and the Vikes have a lot of injuries. Avoid.
Cleveland host Seattle and is a 1 1/2 point favorite. Who would have thought that would the line a few weeks ago. Tough game to get a handle on for me. I think Seattle is the better team, but Cleveland is hot. Avoid.
Oakland hosts hard-luck Houston and is a 3 point favorite. Is there a way to bet against both teams? Avoid.
Dallas has an important NFC East matchup in Philly against the inconsistent Iggles. The only knock on Dallas is that their defense might be suspect, but i can't see the Eagles exploiting it. I say give the 3 points.
Pittsburg hosts the Ravens on Monday night and gets a whopping 9 1/2 points. The Steelers have been perfect at home, and the Ravens have basically done nothing this season. I really don't see them getting blown out, but I didn't see them losing to Buffalo either. They have clearly slipped a notch. I like taking the points here with the Ravens stiff defense, but they have come out flat too many times for me, so I'm going to pass on this one.
