The National Football League: 2009 edition

Week 4.

Tony Romo, Jake Dulhomme, Kerry Collins. Three respected QBs who looked last season to be very capable of taking their teams deep into the playoffs. This year? Not so much.

Kyle Orton, Shaun Hill, Matt Schaub. Three signal callers who looked like career backups or journeymen candidates last year, but who are getting it done this year. Orton clearly outplayed Tony Romo yesterday. Has he been coached-up by Josh McDaniels in Denver? Does Denver just have that much better an offense than Chicago had? Whatever, but he is making Denver's trade of Jay Cutler to the Bears look pretty good. If only Denver had made better use of the draft picks they received along with Orton.

The usual shoutouts to teams that won on the road will be a short one this week. Bengals, Giants. Bengals get only a half. They slid by the terrible Browns in OT. Maybe Cleveland has its QB situation sorted out at least. They produced some points against what had been a good Bengals defense. It's a start.

My picks this week broke even at 3-3. Lost on the Ravens, who were driving for the winning TD when Mark Clayton dropped a short pass on 4 th down at the Pats 8 yard line with 30 seconds left in the game. Another one in the win column for the Pats that really should have been a loss. How long can this keep up?

Lost on the aforementioned Bengals. Lost on the Cowboys, who were out-hit, out-hustled and out-coached by a Broncos squad that clearly wanted the game more. Denver is officially for real. As for the Cowboys, it has to be panic time in big D. Losing their top two RBs to injury didn't help a team built to run the rock in the fourth quarter, but their offense looked out of synch for much of the game. Denver's defense took Jason Whitten out of the game, and Romo threw way too many times at Denver's elite CB Champ Bailey. The Cowboys ran a lot of patterns over the middle, and their receivers paid the price, getting clocked by Denver defenders. Number one WR Roy Williams sat out the crucial end of the fourth quarter after getting popped. Hard to tell if Romo was hanging his receivers out to dry or if he had to throw high to get them the ball, but either way, the receivers weren't liking it and it was hard to ignore their half-hearted efforts on some of those balls. Just how hot is that seat now, Wade Phillips?

Won with the Giants, Niners and Bears. Giants are just a team that takes care of business, particularly against a doormat like KC. The Bears wore down the Lions. What is it about Bears' kick returners anyway. Devin Hester is injured, so they put rookie Tony Knox back to receive the second half kickoff. He took it 105 yards to the house. Forte ran for 121 yards.

The Niners totally dominated St. Louis, scoring on offense, defense and special teams. This is the way good teams handle bad opponents.

This brings me to 8-5 for the year.
 
Quote from AAAintheBeltway:

Bengals get only a half. They slid by the terrible Browns in OT. Maybe Cleveland has its QB situation sorted out at least. They produced some points against what had been a good Bengals defense. It's a start.
More...

Great game, thought we might pull it out. DA looked great and our D looked pretty good when they are not on the field for 80% of the game.

Quinn may or may not be a NFL caliber QB, but I can't see Mangini going there this season. Our team finally played with fight and desire.

I suppose it helps when your QB can throw on target when it's more than 3 yards! lol

:D

PS
We also did this w/o Jamal Lewis in the lineup. 'The Ghost' (J Harrison) looked great. When there was a hole, he hit it. Two huge changes on offense and it was incredible the difference in results.
 
Colts -3.5 @Titans.........Colts
NE -3.5 @Denver...........Denver
Skins @Carolina -3.5.....Carolina


Road division games are always dangerous in the AFC South, but Peyton Manning is having a career year so far, which is saying a lot. Colts.

Thought I'd get more points on this game, but I'm going with Denver anyway. NE's old offensive coordinator/QB coach sticks it to the Pats this week. Denver continues their defensive hot streak one more game for the upset of the week. Denver.

Carolina is at home and they're playing the Skins. Enough said. Carolina.


2-2 last week and 9-7 for the year. I should probably stay away from the NE/Denver game, but I love betting against the Pats.
 
What a night for Brett. One of the best in a first ballot HOF career.

Can the cheeseheads please get over it now? You didn't want Brett. What was he supposed to do, get a local radio show in GB? They are like some guy who dumps his wife for some young hottie, then his ex-wife gets married to Tom Brady.
 
NFL Lines For Week 5 - NFL Football Line Week Five
NFL Line 10/11 - 10/12, 2009
Date & Time Favorite Line Underdog Total
10/11 1:00 ET Minnesota -10 At St. Louis 39
10/11 1:00 ET Dallas -9 At Kansas City 42
10/11 1:00 ET At Carolina -3.5 Washington 37.5
10/11 1:00 ET At Philadelphia -13.5 Tampa Bay 42.5
10/11 1:00 ET At NY Giants -16 Oakland 40.5
10/11 1:00 ET At Buffalo -6 Cleveland 40.5
10/11 1:00 ET At Baltimore -8.5 Cincinnati 42.5
10/11 1:00 ET Pittsburgh -10.5 At Detroit 43
10/11 4:05 ET At San Francisco -2.5 Atlanta 41
10/11 4:15 ET New England -3.5 At Denver 41
10/11 4:15 ET At Arizona -5.5 Houston 48
10/11 4:15 ET Jacksonville -3* At Seattle Off
10/11 8:20 ET Indianapolis -3.5 At Tennessee 45.5



Monday Night Football Line

10/12 8:35 ET NY Jets -1.5 At Miami 36.5

Bye Weeks: Chicago, Green Bay, New Orleans, San Diego
 
After the last couple of weeks of excitement, it looks like things settle down a bit this week. Cincy at Baltimore and Jets at Miami are the only games that have any real rivalry attached to them. Some dangerous games for bettors with seven home 'dogs lined up. As an aside, of my five losses so far, four were favorites on the road. Vegas generally figures about a three point advantage for the home team, but that often is not enough. I need to do a better job of avoiding those sucker bets.

Minnesota(-10) at St. Louis. The Rams may be the worst team in the league, the Vikes one of the best. The Rams were obliterated by SF, the Vikes had an emotional MNF win. I hate to go with a team going on the road after a Monday nighter, but the Vikes already have two 14 point road wins. Laying the 10 here, Vikes.

Dallas(-9) at KC. I want to like Dallas here, but after their flat effort against Denver, this one scares me. Dallas has injury issues with their RBs, WR Roy Williams got the crap knocked out of him going over the middle and Tony Romo has been a bit erratic. Maybe he's missing the Jessica. Have to go with the avoid card here.

Washington at Carolina(-3.5). The Skins have one of the easiest stretch of games in the league. St. L, Detroit, TB, now the listless Panthers. They have yet to play a team with a win under its belt ( their first opponent, the Giants, were 0-0.) Will they allow Carolina to break into the W column, as they did Detroit? Hard to say, as Carolina has been pretty inventive at finding ways to lose. In a lot of ways, these teams mirror each other. Good D's on paper that have struggled at times, run-oriented offenses with one downfield threat, erratic QB play. The thing that makes it tough is that the Skins do have talent. They just can't seem to score TDs. I wouldn't go near this game.

TB at Philly(-13.5). After three blowout losses, TB had a chance against Washington last week, but their kicker missed FGs of 48 and 49 yards. He was cut yesterday. Even the best kickers are only about 50 % from 50 yards outdoors, so it seems a bit harsh, plus he got bad snaps on both kicks that threw off his timing. Their rookie coach benched starter Jason Leftwich in favor of a second year guy who had never played, Josh Johnson. Can you say panicking? Iggles coming off bye week will get QB McNabb back. I'm not crazy about the size of the spread here but I see the potential for TB to trun it over a few times against the blitz-happy Eagles D. Philly.

Oakland at NY Giants(-16). Oakland beat KC by 3, the Giants beat them by 11, both in KC. So the Giants are 8 better, right? Plus 3 for being at home. Eleven sounds about right, but Oakland seems to be on a downhill spiral. The latest is Coach Tom Cable's legal difficulties over a punchout with an assistant have resurfaced, and it seems probable that he will face charges. Makes David Letterman's issues seem manageable. JaMarcus Russell seems to get worse by the week. Eli Manning has a sore foot. Tough one. The Giants will probably roll but giving 16 doesn't give them much room for screwups. Avoid.

Cincy at Baltimore(-8.5). Ravens feel refs jobbed them in NE, but all they had to do was catch a short pass to convert the fourth down, then score from the NE 8 and they win. Cincy slid by in Cleveland. They beat the Steelers, so they have proved they can go toe to toe with the bullies in the AFC. Which Cincy team shows up? I never like having to answer that question, so I'll pass on this one.

Atlanta at SF(-2.5). Good test for the surprising Niners. I really don;t have a feel for Atlanta. They have two solid home victories but got blasted in NE. I lean toward SF here but will avoid.

NE(-3.5) at Denver. Interesting game on several levels. Former BB assistant McDaniels has Broncos off to great start after crazy offseason. NE has been getting it done with mirrors. Ravens would add with refs' help. They may need both against a Broncos' squad that plays with confidence and poise. Still, NE is probably better than Dallas and Denver could have easily lost to the Cowboys last week. Avoiding this one but looking forward to watching it.

Indy(-3.5) at Tennessee. The number one ranked passing attack versus the number 31 ranked pass defense. Tennessee's defense has put them behind the eight ball all year. Their offense is not built to come from behind or win shootouts. That's pretty much the definition of the Colts. I hate to be laying points on the road again, but got to like the Colts here. Colts.

NY Jets(-1.5) at Miami. The Jets blitz-crazy defense is built to rush the passer. The Dolphins are built to run the rock and control the clock. They were able to do it against the Colts, even though they lost, and the Jets are not as good as the Colts. Miami has the number one run offense and the number three run defense. Thye have lost three games but to playoff caliber teams. This game will probably be decided by turnovers and special teams, which makes it a bit dicey. Avoid.
 
Some big news this morning. Biggest item is the trade between the Jets and Cleveland. Cleveland ships Braylon Edwards to the Jets for a couple of guys I've never heard of and picks. Guess Cleveland is not big enough for him and LeBron.

I'm a little surprised Cleveland would do this, unless it is just a pure salary dump or perhaps they're worried that Edwards could be looking at a suspension. Now they've fixed the Jets up with not only a QB, courtesy of their draft day trade to give the Jets the number five pick used on Sanchez, but have fixed their lack of a big wideout problem as well. Plus, they picked up the Jets fired coach, Eric Mangini, no doubt saving the Jets a lot of dough they would have had to pay him.

Are the Browns now the Jets farm team? Got to be tough to be a Browns fan. One week after the browns got their offense going, they will send DA out there without his favorite receiver.

In other major news, the SF 49ers announced the signing of first round pick Michael Crabtree, after a lengthy holdout. Maybe they can trade him to the Browns.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top