The mom contrarian indicator

[formikatrading]

To Niner / Farmer, etc.

What tayte said.

I could post my primary big picture indicator that went into sell mode on 1/31/2020, went into buy mode on 5/1/2020 and hasn't triggered a sell since but maybe it was just lucky. I have a faster, more reactive version of the same indicator that went into sell mode on 2/24/2020 and didn't trigger a buy until 3/25/2020. But hey, no one could have seen the Covid Sell-Off coming?

I don't care if markets are expensive or not -- that had no bearing on what I was looking at. I just care if the market is more likely to move up or down.

I appreciate your passion and conviction for your personal interpretation of mentioned events. Let's just agree to disagree?

It doesn't benefit me to explain my perspective, train of thought since it could make you guys better traders, i.e. more competition for my trades.

 

[formikatrading]

Hey -- I'm human. I'm far from perfect. I make mistakes. I'm may not exercise the right level of discipline. I don't always trade what I see or fully trust my indicators but it's not all hindsight.

The reality is people view the market through their beliefs. If you believe in the randomness, then that's what you're going to see (or not see). If you believe the market leaves clues for you, then you're going to keep working and researching until you find them.

"If you think you can or you think you can't, you're right."

Why is that concept so hard to accept? There are known unknowns and there are unknown unknowns. In case of COVID, it was an unexpected event that had nothing to do with market fundamentals or the economy - the very definition of the black swan. Same goes for Fukushima, 9/11 and many more things.


Yeah, my hindsight book is up a million percent too

 

[deepfkvalue]

When QQQ high december buy the dip lows with a 10% pullback, that was the largest buy the dip signal of all of 2021 so far.

 

[nillionaire]

My mom said today that she dumped all her stocks, so I would take that as a sign the market is going higher.

 

[nillionaire]

She called today and was freaking out.

 

[Nobert]

How is it going ?

 

[nillionaire]

How is it going ?

She said she bought some airline stocks last week and is down 20 some percent on those. She's telling me I should buy them because they are such a great deal now. Guess that means they're not close to the bottom!

 

[Concinnity]

I am all about moving forward and despise hindsight trading. With that said the fact remains that prior to the Covid drop, some equity indeces(not all) did make higher highs on weaker readings. So, if we're speaking of trading, the market was not in a overly strong position to be buying regardless. Not to mention the baseline momentum of the markets on a Daily chart (factoring in resets) was not very strong either.

Point is it's not like the drop came completely out of no where. Sure it's unlikely anyone was predicting that sharp and that far of a drop based on that type of sell signal. Not saying that at all. However, once you have higher prices on weaker momentum. You should not be looking long anyways unless you have another objective countering factor that is more powerful in play. You should be looking short. Once price starts rolling down and than you factor in a new catalyst event (like Covid) and now you have TA readings + a catalyst which is generally a very strong trade.

Kind of like CL now. Weekly chart went into short squeeze mode + we have the war catalyst. People thought it was way over done in the 110's so they just slap shorts on and proceed to get squeezed.