EDIT: What seems to be more likely and what their plans are is to block the Island (opposed to violent military action).
They will try to force them into peaceful reunification. Makes a lot more sense than an outright military attack.
The market is SO WRONG at this point
- Thread starter orbit23
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EDIT: What seems to be more likely and what their plans are is to block the Island (opposed to violent military action).
They will try to force them into peaceful reunification. Makes a lot more sense than an outright military attack.
Definitely not fragile. Every dip is free money. There was no chance yesterday would ever follow-thru. Next week will again hit new ATH and there is nothing that can change this. Nothing really matters at this point. This thing is pumping wether anyone likes it or not.
Everything is completely normal when stock prices make no sense. Be concerned only when market prices seem rational. That is a sign something is very wrong. If you put shit in a blender and it turns into gold, be happy. Don't ask "why"?I know it's ironic, but the market seems so wrong at this point.
Is there something that we are not seeing??? There is a possibility that we are driven towards full-AGI (artificial intelligence) that will solve all the worlds problems, making us all rich and happy.
In a sense that the market is this great prediction tool as it discounts EVERY possible indicator in existence into the price and we are rallying because of this great future that lies ahead.
While certainly possible, it seems highly unlikely at this point (it's probably farther off than we imagine it to be).
Because the discrepancy between perception and reality has probably never been bigger. The reality of the situation is that we are FU**ED.
The ONE thing that markets HATE more than anything is UNCERTAINTY. And now we have more potential upcoming uncertainties than we've ever had:
1.) Bank failures
2.) China reunition with Taiwan
3.) Escalation in the middle east
4.) US internal security issues (unvetted immigrants)
5.) US civil "issues"
Just to count some from the top of my head. There are probably many more.
I am not even saying the market has topped. I am more like "what the fu*k?"
I am smart enough to know that none of this matters for as long as FED keeps printing, making the number go up.
HOWEVER, at some point, something IS going to break and it's gonna get ugly. Right?
Just looking at my history it's kind of interesting because i've had quite a few amazingly accurate predictions that came true. Of course i am cherry picking and i've been wrong a lot too and obviously i don't know what happens next and i am wondering just like everyone else is.
But maybe i am not completely off??? How much more wrong can the market get?
Calling the Covid crash months in advance;
SP500 DOWN to 2500 and then to 2200
Predicting crash of Boeing & the market:
BOEING is going DOWN and it's taking whole market with it. Crash is inevitable
Calling out market bottom:
This is what a market bottom looks like
Calling for massive pumps on junk assets (eg. cryptos):
Is this the time when the biggest junk pumps?
Predicting good(bullish) times ahead:
"Bull markets climb a wall of worry"
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The concern is that the irrationality has gotten so out of whack that it's peaking into the extremes and sooner or later the things are going to turn around.
Prices going up distort the perception of reality. In my mind it will snap and there will be a hard landing.
There are a lot of underlying issues and potential triggers, it's just a matter of what and when it's going to be.
You are trying to apply logic to the market even though you obviously understand it perfectly. That you understand the market was obvious when you wrote:
"...irrationality has gotten so out of whack that it's peaking into the extremes and sooner or later the things are going to turn around."
I think China will surround Taiwan before US presidential elections and this will send the stock market tumbling down hard and will result in Trump getting elected.
Nothing happened during Covid but people lost their mind.
I think same scenario. China surrounds Taiwan and forces them into peaceful reunition.
Nothing ends up happening, but people lose their minds again in fear of escalation and we revisit Covid lows (down to around $2500-$2750 SP500, below $10,000 NAS100 and around $50 NVDA).
Nothing happened during Covid but people lost their mind.
I think same scenario. China surrounds Taiwan and forces them into peaceful reunition.
Nothing ends up happening, but people lose their minds again in fear of escalation and we revisit Covid lows (down to around $2500-$2750 SP500, below $10,000 NAS100 and around $50 NVDA).
Now if we are really, really, really lucky, then the AI bubble will burst at the same time private equity finally pops as well.
Maybe 6-24 months out?
Maybe 6-24 months out?
If China escalates anything with Taiwan or even some idea that there is a US/China confrontation US stock indexes will fall so fast the circuit breakers will kick in and the fed will have an emergency fed meeting cutting rates overnight with QE pushing trillions into the market.....Indexes could easily plummer by 30% within weeks!