The market is SO WRONG at this point

[S2007S]

Now if we are really, really, really lucky, then the AI bubble will burst at the same time private equity finally pops as well.

Maybe 6-24 months out?

I see that in 2 to 3 yrs. Once competition starts to knock out nvda and they start losing market share the stock will lost half its value within months, also once Google, tesla, Facebook msft and the others stop spending the billions they have been on these AI chips nvda will be ready for its decline. Right now these companies are fighting for the best AI capabilities but once they find out the billions they are spending aren't bringing in much to their bottom line the AI bubble will burst. ....

 

[wxytrader]

I think China will surround Taiwan before US presidential elections and this will send the stock market tumbling down hard and will result in Trump getting elected.

Nothing happened during Covid but people lost their mind.

I think same scenario. China surrounds Taiwan and forces them into peaceful reunition.

Nothing ends up happening, but people lose their minds again in fear of escalation and we revisit Covid lows (down to around $2500-$2750 SP500, below $10,000 NAS100 and around $50 NVDA).

Nothing can happen until the Cup & Handle completes.

 

[The_Krakenite]

I remember Taleb talking about the effects of oil and stocks around the Gulf war, etc. Basically, what everyone thought for sure would happen once war starts... the opposite happened.

So bare that in mind.... no one really knows.

 

[wxytrader]

If China escalates anything with Taiwan or even some idea that there is a US/China confrontation US stock indexes will fall so fast the circuit breakers will kick in and the fed will have an emergency fed meeting cutting rates overnight with QE pushing trillions into the market.....Indexes could easily plummer by 30% within weeks!

Wouldn't all that money get pumped back into the market? Isn't that the problem with the quantitative easing or whatever they don't let the markets tank which makes for a healthier market.

 

[Picaso]

I think China will surround Taiwan before US presidential elections and this will send the stock market tumbling down hard and will result in Trump getting elected.

Nothing happened during Covid but people lost their mind.

I think same scenario. China surrounds Taiwan and forces them into peaceful reunition.

Nothing ends up happening, but people lose their minds again in fear of escalation and we revisit Covid lows (down to around $2500-$2750 SP500, below $10,000 NAS100 and around $50 NVDA).

After Hong Kong·s demo of life under the Communists, imnsho, there's zero chance of peaceful annexation (there's no such a thing as reunification).

If China invades Taiwan, fuck the stock market, buy canned beans and ammo

 

[orbit23]

After Hong Kong·s demo of life under the Communists, imnsho, there's zero chance of peaceful annexation (there's no such a thing as reunification).

If China invades Taiwan, fuck the stock market, buy canned beans and ammo

They wouldn't invade. They'd surround and create blockage of the island.

If there is lack of international support, Taiwan would reunite peacefully rather than suffer great loses with no chance of winning.

They are waiting for the right time.

 

[Picaso]

They wouldn't invade. They'd surround and create blockage of the island.

If there is lack of international support, Taiwan would reunite peacefully rather than suffer great loses with no chance of winning.

They are waiting for the right time.

In my view, no chance of this happening in the foreseeable.

By the way, a blockade is an act of war, nothing peaceful about it.

Oh, and then there's the chips, of course.

 

[wxytrader]

This rally is nothing compared to 2020 which price more than doubled from $220 to $480. It must go up before it can capitulate and continue in a long term bull bias trajectory as it has since the beginning of the stock market. It can still go another 50-100 points too lol...it's not even half the length of the rally in 2020 yet. Market confidence should be at ridiculous levels at that point and primed for a rug pull.

Just look at the chart...we had a massive capitulation followed by a v recovery, followed by a long sweeping downtrend for an entire year, that was barely recovering before yet another a correction...this bull run has barely begun. Add to that this is an election cylcle lol. Sounds like some people keep bucking the trend hoping to get lucky with puts or shorting.

What is the Target for Cup and Handle Pattern?
The target with the cup and handle pattern is the height of the cup added to the breakout point of the handle.

If the height of the cup is the previous rally, then this could put us at $640 or higher before a correction.


View attachment 337262

This post has aged well. You all thought the market was acting irrationally, and we were due for a massive capitulation. I told you all that we are doing exactly as expected, and the TA says this could run to $620's.

If you go back in history and compare rallies to corrections we have had a cluster of corrections which takes the pressure off...kind of like small earthquakes do before the big one. Just looking at symmetry we are due for a bigger one...MACD is rounding.

 

[orbit23]

This post has aged well. You all thought the market was acting irrationally, and we were due for a massive capitulation. I told you all that we are doing exactly as expected, and the TA says this could run to $620's.

View attachment 347615

Ok. What's coming up next NOW?

 

[wxytrader]

Ok. What's coming up next NOW?

The point is it doesn't matter what it does. The time to buy is at the next capitulation.