The market is SO WRONG at this point

S2007S said:
And right before the dot com collapse everyone felt the same way as they do now, that stocks and markets would continue to just rally rally rally. There were zero signs of any reason for stocks to drop as literally every day the markets were printing free money, just like they are today.
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MSFT is now worth way more than the FTSE 100 combined. Thats the top 100 large cap UK stocks. Actually its worth about the same as the top 350 UK stocks combined.

Probably worth more than the top 100 German and French stocks as well.

The US stock market has some crazy bubble stock valuations. Kind a reminds me of the Japanese real estate bubble, where the imperial palace was worth more than all of California.

The top 10 US stocks probably have a combined market cap that equals the combined market cap of every european listed company combined. All the stock markets in europe add up to around $15 trillion.
 
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Businessman said:
MSFT is now worth way more than the FTSE 100 combined. Thats the top 100 large cap UK stocks. Actually its worth about the same as the top 350 UK stocks combined.

Probably worth more than the top 100 German and French stocks as well.

The US stock market has some crazy bubble stock valuations. Kind a reminds me of the Japanese real estate bubble, where the imperial palace was worth more than all of California.

The top 10 US stocks probably have a combined market cap that equals the combined market cap of every european listed company combined. All the stock markets in europe add up to around $15 trillion.
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I had some sort of graphic in an email (might be able to find and post later) that the Mag 7 (I think, sounds about right) is greater than the Chinese Stock Market, which even with their bear market is the 2nd highest in the world to the U.S. - in a country by country market cap valuation comparison.
 
The market is always 1000% correct (excluding those bad data problems).


The investors/traders are mostly wrong.


You can design your trade plan based on the fact that
- the market is SO wrong or
- the market is always correct
 
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Businessman said:
MSFT is now worth way more than the FTSE 100 combined. Thats the top 100 large cap UK stocks. Actually its worth about the same as the top 350 UK stocks combined.

Probably worth more than the top 100 German and French stocks as well.

The US stock market has some crazy bubble stock valuations. Kind a reminds me of the Japanese real estate bubble, where the imperial palace was worth more than all of California.

The top 10 US stocks probably have a combined market cap that equals the combined market cap of every european listed company combined. All the stock markets in europe add up to around $15 trillion.
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MSFT is at a PE of 40 - rich, until you consider that EPS more than doubled from 2019-2023. That's not remotely a "crazy bubble", that's just somewhat pricey. And all of the reasons cited by the OP as to why U.S. stocks should be trading lower, apply with even greater force to Europe. Lots more uncertainty (not least from Russia), worse politics and overall business environment, far worse demographics, and China is currently rugging the entire European industrial business model.
 
wxytrader said:
Are we talking wrong or irrational?
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Both.

The way you're trying to define irrational, it would have no meaning. Someone could say they're a purple unicorn and they would acting "rationally" as long as they believe it.

Being rational is a helpful in avoiding huge mistakes. Being irrational allows you to buy things for stupid prices that couldn't possibly be earned back by future earnings.
 
orbit23 said:
All of them. (stocks, crypto, ...)

Great risks and uncertainty lies ahead, that the market has not taken yet into account. And when it does, there will be "re-pricing", so to speak.


The up-only mode managed to convince everyone there is not going to be any downside, lol :):):)


Some top signals are starting to pop-up........
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%%
Good timing\
Monday morning \LOL.
Actually i was somewhat worried in FRI post market about SDS related reported lack of fills;
but SCHW las always been a bit slow in irregular[post] market fills...... Worked well anyway\non union workers.
But that SDS must have gotten overpriced also\ split in 2012\2017\2022 LOL:D:D
BIG mistake to put stocks + crypto \cr*p in same sentence
\+ same line, as if they have equal worth.
And ''all of them '' LOL.:D:D
REMEMBER what the lady said ''DONT tell me it does no good to worry/ MOST of the things i worry about never happens.''
May be gets even worse in Hi tax\ high regs CA/stupid union like wage of $20; but good for AI[machine learning ] union busters........./most likely.
 
engineering said:
Both.

The way you're trying to define irrational, it would have no meaning. Someone could say they're a purple unicorn and they would acting "rationally" as long as they believe it.

Being rational is a helpful in avoiding huge mistakes. Being irrational allows you to buy things for stupid prices that couldn't possibly be earned back by future earnings.
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I'm sure a lot of people thought that buying bitcoin in 2015 was irrational, therefore was the bitcoin market acting irrationally? No it was acting exactly as you would expect considering investors believed it would continue to increase in price. Enron the same way...it was being hyped so the market reflected that. If the price was increasing with no catalyst then the market would be acting irrationally.
 
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wxytrader said:
But you can't state that the market is being irrational,
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Sure I can.

Large crowds of people do dumb things all the time. Crack a history book.

The way you're trying to split hairs is silly. It would be like me say "The price on that house is crazy" and you saying "the price is just a bunch of numbers". It's silly. We all know that when we talk about "the market" we really mean the actions of the players.

wxytrader said:
If Enron didn't collapse then were investors being irrational?
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Yes. It was fraudulent and doomed.

Remember the $100 million dollar deli?
That was obviously irrational.

wxytrader said:
It's a dumb, ambiguous term that tries to personify the market.
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The market is people. Believing anything else is what's dumb.
 
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