The market is SO WRONG at this point

[wxytrader]

Sure I can.

Large crowds of people do dumb things all the time. Crack a history book.

The way you're trying to split hairs is silly. It would be like me say "The price on that house is crazy" and you saying "the price is just a bunch of numbers". It's silly. We all know that when we talk about "the market" we really mean the actions of the players.


Yes. It was fraudulent and doomed.

Remember the $100 million dollar deli?
That was obviously irrational.


The market is people. Believing anything else is what's dumb.

You quoted me before I finished editing.

I'm sure a lot of people thought that buying bitcoin in 2015 was irrational, therefore was the bitcoin market acting irrationally? No it was acting exactly as you would expect considering investors believed it would continue to increase in price. Enron the same way...it was being hyped so the market reflected that. If the price was increasing with no catalyst then the market would be acting irrationally.

 

[piezoe]

That makes no sense at all. Like actually insane theory. Why would it go down. Biden has been Potus for the greatest market rally ever, even though it doesn't matter much who's Potus when it comes to the market.

Yah, the first sentence is nonsense for sure. I meant something else, if only I could have said what i meant in English!. In a real democracy, which the U.S. only very roughly approximates, it won't matter who is President as far as the markets are concerned. But in Autocratic countries it can matter. There are always winners and losers, but who they are differs.

 

[piezoe]

we have a U.S. debt clock.

Right! And we all know that the debt clock determines whether we have a debt or not. Just like Trump determined that Mexico would pay for the Wall. How do we know that? Because he said so. Yup, Just like the Debt clock says we have a debt.

 

[piezoe]

Federal Reserve is a private bank,

The Federal Reserve is NOT a private bank. As long as you think this , you will never understand our money. I'll give you an example of how beginning with the wrong premise can produce nonsense down the road.

In 1941 a well know urologist named Huggins (he later won a Nobel Prize!) and his co-author, Holmes, published a paper implying that Testosterone caused prostate cancer. This is the message that got passed on to generations of budding urologists in medical schools. Today, despite 20 years of research papers convincingly showing that the Huggins-Holmes paper was wrong and also showing that higher levels of testosterone result in a lower incidence of prostate cancer among older men, most urologists are still giving their prostate cancer "victims" drugs that wipe out their testosterone production. Does it make sense? No, of course not. But we are still doing it!

And you still think the Federal Reserve is a Private Bank, when it hasn't been a private bank since the banking laws of the 1930s... Wouldn't you agree that if the Federal Reserve is a Private Bank, it's owners are awfully stupid to turn all their net profits over to the U.S. Treasury?

It's way past time to stop chemically castrating men being treated for prostate cancer, and it is way past time to stop referring to the Federal Reserve as a private Bank.

When I was three, I believed in Santa Claus, I came to my senses by age 6. I am a fast learner. Some of us, not so much apparently.

 

[piezoe]

Let's face it, the only thing keeping this market afloat is enterprise spending in AI hardware, software development & cybersecurity (for deepfakes). I guess you can throw in the traveling sector where the upper middle-class and above are still into it (the K-gun recovery hypothesis). Unless AI is a total bust and everyone stops buying nVidia GPUs it will continue.

I think Gene Munster called AI a greater opportunity than Internet 1.0 but less than electricity. If that's true you could see a Schilling P/E > 50 before it collapses. As for right now I watch BubbleVision to gauge sentiment and it seems there are still sell-siders telling you to wait for a pull back that will never come. That is the real reason for no pullbacks.

I also believe this rotation into the S&P 493 won't last long either. It's just an interest rate rotation. Just like the first week of January when there was a selloff in the semis but it also snapped back quickly. Amazingly without the Magnificent 7 the S&P 500 had negative earnings growth in all of 2023 & Q1 2024.

I'm wondering. Is it a bit too soon to conclude much of anything about AI? But of course the Markets won't care. AI stocks are going to be the hot stocks.

 

[wxytrader]

I'm wondering. Is it a bit too soon to conclude much of anything about AI? But of course the Markets won't care. AI stocks are going to be the hot stocks.

Are you guys ever going to learn Ithat none of that ever affects the market? The market goes in waves regardless of what's going on.

Let's face it, the only thing keeping this market afloat is enterprise spending in AI hardware, software development & cybersecurity (for deepfakes). I guess you can throw in the traveling sector where the upper middle-class and above are still into it (the K-gun recovery hypothesis). Unless AI is a total bust and everyone stops buying nVidia GPUs it will continue.

I think Gene Munster called AI a greater opportunity than Internet 1.0 but less than electricity. If that's true you could see a Schilling P/E > 50 before it collapses. As for right now I watch BubbleVision to gauge sentiment and it seems there are still sell-siders telling you to wait for a pull back that will never come. That is the real reason for no pullbacks.

I also believe this rotation into the S&P 493 won't last long either. It's just an interest rate rotation. Just like the first week of January when there was a selloff in the semis but it also snapped back quickly. Amazingly without the Magnificent 7 the S&P 500 had negative earnings growth in all of 2023 & Q1 2024.

That has nothing to do with anything. Man you guys work so hard to just spin your tires. Price is going up because A it's an election year and B because it's on an extension wave. If you want to get technical, it's an election year because it's on an extension . That's it end of story.

 

[Overnight]

The Federal Reserve is NOT a private bank. As long as you think this , you will never understand our money. I'll give you an example of how beginning with the wrong premise can produce nonsense down the road.

In 1941 a well know urologist named Huggins (he later won a Nobel Prize!) and his co-author, Holmes, published a paper implying that Testosterone caused prostate cancer. This is the message that got passed on to generations of budding urologists in medical schools. Today, despite 20 years of research papers convincingly showing that the Huggins-Holmes paper was wrong and also showing that higher levels of testosterone result in a lower incidence of prostate cancer among older men, most urologists are still giving their prostate cancer "victims" drugs that wipe out their testosterone production. Does it make sense? No, of course not. But we are still doing it!

And you still think the Federal Reserve is a Private Bank, when it hasn't been a private bank since the banking laws of the 1930s... Wouldn't you agree that if the Federal Reserve is a Private Bank, it's owners are awfully stupid to turn all their net profits over to the U.S. Treasury?

It's way past time to stop chemically castrating men being treated for prostate cancer, and it is way past time to stop referring to the Federal Reserve as a private Bank.

When I was three, I believed in Santa Claus, I came to my senses by age 6. I am a fast learner. Some of us, not so much apparently.

I have lost faith in your ability to understand the system we operate in.

"In its role as the central bank of the United States, the Fed serves as a banker's bank and as the government's bank. As the banker's bank, it helps to assure the safety and efficiency of the payments system. As the government's bank or fiscal agent, the Fed processes a variety of financial transactions involving trillions of dollars. Just as an individual might keep an account at a bank, the U.S. Treasury keeps a checking account with the Federal Reserve, through which incoming federal tax deposits and outgoing government payments are handled. As part of this service relationship, the Fed sells and redeems U.S. government securities such as savings bonds and Treasury bills, notes and bonds. It also issues the nation's coin and paper currency. The U.S. Treasury, through its Bureau of the Mint and Bureau of Engraving and Printing, actually produces the nation's cash supply and, in effect, sells the paper currency to the Federal Reserve Banks at manufacturing cost, and the coins at face value..."

Chew on that first, piezoe.

 

[wxytrader]

I have lost faith in your ability to understand the system we operate in.

"In its role as the central bank of the United States, the Fed serves as a banker's bank and as the government's bank. As the banker's bank, it helps to assure the safety and efficiency of the payments system. As the government's bank or fiscal agent, the Fed processes a variety of financial transactions involving trillions of dollars. Just as an individual might keep an account at a bank, the U.S. Treasury keeps a checking account with the Federal Reserve, through which incoming federal tax deposits and outgoing government payments are handled. As part of this service relationship, the Fed sells and redeems U.S. government securities such as savings bonds and Treasury bills, notes and bonds. It also issues the nation's coin and paper currency. The U.S. Treasury, through its Bureau of the Mint and Bureau of Engraving and Printing, actually produces the nation's cash supply and, in effect, sells the paper currency to the Federal Reserve Banks at manufacturing cost, and the coins at face value..."

Chew on that first, piezoe.

It's all antiquated now. It's going to be Bitcoin and crypto if it isn't already two countries already using Bitcoin as backing. Bet you didn't think that was going to happen 10 years ago...or that we'd have Bitcoin ETFs.

It wouldn't surprise me if people end up selling off all their assets and putting it all in Bitcoin. Especially when retiring. It has proven that it's an amazing wealth creator... the alternative is dividends lol. There is a study showing that millionaires and billionaires who aren't holding Bitcoin are losing a substantial percent of their fortune relative to bitcoin. Maybe there'll be those Bitcoin Citadel cities or something. I think you can get Bitcoin bank cards now. So yeah adios central banking system.

 

[Overnight]

It's all antiquated now. It's going to be Bitcoin and crypto if it isn't already two countries already using Bitcoin as backing. Bet you didn't think that was going to happen 10 years ago...or that we'd have Bitcoin ETFs.

10 years ago cryptos barely existed. So, umm, no, nobody saw it coming?

 

[wxytrader]

10 years ago cryptos barely existed. So, umm, no, nobody saw it coming?

The smart people saw it coming.