The market is SO WRONG at this point

Let's face it, the only thing keeping this market afloat is enterprise spending in AI hardware, software development & cybersecurity (for deepfakes). I guess you can throw in the traveling sector where the upper middle-class and above are still into it (the K-gun recovery hypothesis). Unless AI is a total bust and everyone stops buying nVidia GPUs it will continue.

I think Gene Munster called AI a greater opportunity than Internet 1.0 but less than electricity. If that's true you could see a Schilling P/E > 50 before it collapses. As for right now I watch BubbleVision to gauge sentiment and it seems there are still sell-siders telling you to wait for a pull back that will never come. That is the real reason for no pullbacks.

I also believe this rotation into the S&P 493 won't last long either. It's just an interest rate rotation. Just like the first week of January when there was a selloff in the semis but it also snapped back quickly. Amazingly without the Magnificent 7 the S&P 500 had negative earnings growth in all of 2023 & Q1 2024.
 
orbit23 said:
All of them. (stocks, crypto, ...)

Great risks and uncertainty lies ahead, that the market has not taken yet into account. And when it does, there will be "re-pricing", so to speak.


To me this looks akin to a slaughterfest. You are getting fed and then you get slaughtered.

The up-only mode managed to convince everyone there is not going to be any downside, lol :):):)


Some top signals are starting to pop-up, but the matter of the fact is charts are still grinding & going up only so can't say anything as to when it ends.

The situation is absolutely absurd at the moment, so i wonder how much crazier can things actually get.

I think it's possible that 2024 makes 2020 look insignificant. It could also take much longer to play out, so who knows.
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Re: stocks, this is basically the same thing permabears have been saying since 2010 and they’ve been dead wrong all the way up. The most you can say is that the US market is somewhat rich relative to bonds (ERP) and non-US shares, and that returns over the next 10+ years are likely to be lackluster. But you’re going to need a very serious external shock to see any kind of sustained decline.

As to crypto (specifically BTC) I see the range of fair value as so wide that it’s impossible to make any definitive statements as to pricing.
 
schizo said:
Definitely number 5 for sure. Civil unrest could spread out to civil war, which was unthinkable just 10 years ago. But now with these MAGA wingnuts, anything's possible.

Another possibility in the not-too-distant horizon is Uncle Sam going belly up. You cannot print your way out of debt, period. Weimar republic tried it and paid a heavy price. So have Rome, and countless other dumbass nations/empires.

As for that idiot Putin, he just dug up his own grave by staging a false terrorist plot. His days are numbered.
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Generac Holdings Inc. (GNRC)
NYSE - NYSE Delayed Price. Currency in USD
126.14+1.55 (+1.24%)

---> The product, not the stock. ;)
 
nitrene said:
Let's face it, the only thing keeping this market afloat is enterprise spending in AI hardware, software development & cybersecurity (for deepfakes). I guess you can throw in the traveling sector where the upper middle-class and above are still into it (the K-gun recovery hypothesis). Unless AI is a total bust and everyone stops buying nVidia GPUs it will continue.

I think Gene Munster called AI a greater opportunity than Internet 1.0 but less than electricity. If that's true you could see a Schilling P/E > 50 before it collapses. As for right now I watch BubbleVision to gauge sentiment and it seems there are still sell-siders telling you to wait for a pull back that will never come. That is the real reason for no pullbacks.

I also believe this rotation into the S&P 493 won't last long either. It's just an interest rate rotation. Just like the first week of January when there was a selloff in the semis but it also snapped back quickly. Amazingly without the Magnificent 7 the S&P 500 had negative earnings growth in all of 2023 & Q1 2024.
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Hahaha----You're one smart cookie.
 
nitrene said:
I think Gene Munster called AI a greater opportunity than Internet 1.0 but less than electricity. If that's true you could see a Schilling P/E > 50 before it collapses. As for right now I watch BubbleVision to gauge sentiment and it seems there are still sell-siders telling you to wait for a pull back that will never come. That is the real reason for no pullbacks.

.
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Market level doesn't depend on new technologies but only money printing/suply and interest rates/ inflation

Debt situation is bad, they need to cut rates.
S&P could go to 7000 before elections
 
Businessman said:
Shiller PE ratio is 35, this is below the dotcom bubble peak (44) but higher than the 1929 peak (32)

So yeah according to this metric we are in a stock market bubble, the second biggest of all
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And right before the dot com collapse everyone felt the same way as they do now, that stocks and markets would continue to just rally rally rally. There were zero signs of any reason for stocks to drop as literally every day the markets were printing free money, just like they are today.
 
S2007S said:
And right before the dot com collapse everyone felt the same way as they do now, that stocks and markets would continue to just rally rally rally. There were zero signs of any reason for stocks to drop as literally every day the markets were printing free money, just like they are today.
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Yeah but the market could still run 20 to 30% from here, unlikely this year, over the next two or three years. Before another big correction.
 
v-shape-0DTE said:
where you lose me is 2020 had violent pullbacks and actual directional down moves along the way. This market just isn't comparable. There's no downside ever more than a day that leads to an instant V. Back then technicals actually mattered and worked. Look at all those 50 day MA tests. None of that happens anymore. It's all guaranteed to go up.
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You fail to explain specifically what’s different with the current market compared to past markets.

If you could, that would make your comments more interesting.

For the record, I’m fairly bullish too and think the stock market have plenty more upside this year, but I’m not married to that view.
 
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