The market is random

[college_trad3r]

What I have realized in the past weeks is that the market is truly random. It has been an epiphany. I dreamt about this at first. I was scared: what if the market is truly random? What if all the effort you put in can come unrewarded? I expounded on this idea and came up with the following: that the market is truly random.

What this means is that there is no winning trading strategy.

You might think, how is this possible? Well it is, because the way people make money is 100% by luck. The luck decides whether your strategy will be profitable for a few years, before the market changes. Each year there are different strategies that work, because of luck.
You might think then how did Buffet made his money? Pure luck! He is an outlier of statistics. Just like the 1% out of traders who are consistently profitable, they are profitable by luck! It is only by chance their strategies seem to work. :eek:

Now, is it possible to put luck in your favor? YES IT IS. By testing out alot of different strategies you can come up with one that seems to work. It is your job to exploit it until your luck changes. However finding strategies that work is mostly dependent on luck. You might dabble with price action strategies, and find out they don't work this year, though they might be the best strategy around in the long run.
Trading is more about luck than hard work It is not a meritocracy that people think it is. Most people ignore this cold hard fact.

This is the hard and pure truth i have finally uncovered about the markets. See what you will do about it. I can only give you the tools but you have to do the fishing yourself.

 

[wave]

Friend,

there is order in the randomness, you just have to be willing to put in the relentless effort to see it. Most won't and can't.

 

[FB123]

Quote from college_trad3r:

Trading is more about luck than hard work It is not a meritocracy that people think it is. Most people ignore this cold hard fact.

It's funny how we never hear consistently profitable traders expounding this random market theory, isn't it? Every time someone comes along and says that the market is just luck, it is inevitably a person who hasn't made it as a trader, and is just trying to make themselves feel better about it.

"If I can't make it, it must be because nobody can, and that must be because the markets are random!"

Does that make you feel better?

Instead of putting so much effort into trying to prove that the markets are random, accept responsibility that you personally just don't understand how they work well enough, which is why, to YOU, they are random.

You have no idea how ridiculous the random market theory is to every successful trader in the world. Everybody who makes money consistently in the markets laughs their ass off at the silly people who come along every once in a while and try to prove that what they are doing every day is just luck, especially when those people are inevitably failed traders who generally don't have a clue what they are doing in the markets.

Not being able to make money in the markets and then running around trying to preach theories like randomness to those who do is like a failed high school drop-out going to Einstein and trying to tell him that his theory of relativity is all nonsense because he can't understand it.

Keep believing this utter load of tripe if you want to... I can assure you that clinging to a false theory is not going to help you in any way as a trader.

 

[hermit]

Quote from college_trad3r:


This is the hard and pure truth i have finally uncovered about the markets. See what you will do about it. I can only give you the tools but you have to do the fishing yourself.

I dont want to contend with your conclusions but would say that its best to just keep trading and researching, do not look for definitive answers too early in your career.

 

[illiquid]

How do you "take advantage of luck" ie profit from the truly random? Wouldn't you have to know at what times you would be "luckier" than usual? If it were possible, casino-goers the world over could apply the same concept and beat the casino regularly.

Substitute "things change over time" for "random" in your mind, and you'll realize you're using the concept of luck to rationalize your frustrations.

 

[Petsamo]

Go to freetradingvideos.com and look at dseven's weekend video. We are at a major support line. The probability was high that the markets would go up, and it is going up.

You also want to pay attention to Carl Swenlin's Chart Spotlight at decisionpoint.com.

If you really believe that the market is random, then you might as well balance your portfolio, follow the buy and hold approach, and pay no attention to traders.

 

[Lucrum]

Quote from college_trad3r:

What I have realized in the past weeks is that the market is truly random. It has been an epiphany. I dreamt about this at first. I was scared: what if the market is truly random? What if all the effort you put in can come unrewarded? I expounded on this idea and came up with the following: that the market is truly random.

What this means is that there is no winning trading strategy.

You might think, how is this possible? Well it is, because the way people make money is 100% by luck. The luck decides whether your strategy will be profitable for a few years, before the market changes. Each year there are different strategies that work, because of luck.
You might think then how did Buffet made his money? Pure luck! He is an outlier of statistics. Just like the 1% out of traders who are consistently profitable, they are profitable by luck! It is only by chance their strategies seem to work. :eek:

Now, is it possible to put luck in your favor? YES IT IS. By testing out alot of different strategies you can come up with one that seems to work. It is your job to exploit it until your luck changes. However finding strategies that work is mostly dependent on luck. You might dabble with price action strategies, and find out they don't work this year, though they might be the best strategy around in the long run.
Trading is more about luck than hard work It is not a meritocracy that people think it is. Most people ignore this cold hard fact.

This is the hard and pure truth i have finally uncovered about the markets. See what you will do about it. I can only give you the tools but you have to do the fishing yourself.

You should go to your college's administration building and demand your tuition back. Plus additional punitive damages for time wasted and irreversible brain damage.

 

[Petsamo]

Nah, he's probably in liberal arts and sciences, and he's trading just to get drinking money.

 

[ElCubano]

Quote from college_trad3r:

What I have realized in the past weeks is that the market is truly random. It has been an epiphany. I dreamt about this at first. I was scared: what if the market is truly random? What if all the effort you put in can come unrewarded? I expounded on this idea and came up with the following: that the market is truly random.

What this means is that there is no winning trading strategy.

You might think, how is this possible? Well it is, because the way people make money is 100% by luck. The luck decides whether your strategy will be profitable for a few years, before the market changes. Each year there are different strategies that work, because of luck.
You might think then how did Buffet made his money? Pure luck! He is an outlier of statistics. Just like the 1% out of traders who are consistently profitable, they are profitable by luck! It is only by chance their strategies seem to work. :eek:

Now, is it possible to put luck in your favor? YES IT IS. By testing out alot of different strategies you can come up with one that seems to work. It is your job to exploit it until your luck changes. However finding strategies that work is mostly dependent on luck. You might dabble with price action strategies, and find out they don't work this year, though they might be the best strategy around in the long run.
Trading is more about luck than hard work It is not a meritocracy that people think it is. Most people ignore this cold hard fact.

This is the hard and pure truth i have finally uncovered about the markets. See what you will do about it. I can only give you the tools but you have to do the fishing yourself.

and then they are the not lucky ones who are privy to info. Then you just have the animals who make it day in and day out by just being part of the game...You know who you are.

 

[blackjack666]

I guess it (luck) would explain the old 'all systems only work for a while until they stop working' theory.

That whole theory has never sat well with me.

Imagine a trader whos made consistent profits for 4 years trading off of support and resistance. Is support and resistance gonna 'stop working' oneday and render his method useless?? Doesn't make sense to me.

The 'elite' 5% or so of apparent successful traders are actually just lucky? Doesn't sound ridiculous but I dont think your right (and certainly hope not considering im going on just over 1.5 years of consistent profits!!)