The market is random

Quote from endsongs:

Speres - the market is random in the long term is what I stated. In the short term, it's anyone guess. Sometimes, news and earnings don't even move the market. If you want to continue to believe it is not random long term, go right ahead.
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Short term is'nt anyones guess or random, longer term other factors come into play.......

News events are a big part of the fun and games....
 
try this:

market are not random because price distribution shows leptokurtosis = fat tails = trends.

Randomness doesn't (not in the same way, at least)
 
Quote from endsongs:

Speres - the market is random in the long term is what I stated. In the short term, it's anyone guess.
More...

You are a confusing individual.

The market appears to be random. But how can something driven by human behaviour be random? Not possible.

To the lay observer, it is unpredictable - not exactly the same as random.

To the professional, there are predictable patterns to be found in the seemingly unpredictable chaos - they come, they go; money management helps to exploit them.

For anyone who says the market is random and continues to post on this board or engage in further trading/investing activity, you are an idiot. Why would you waste your time under that pretense?
 
wrong wrong wrong on several counts.

-random data certainly could show a leptokurtic distribution. why would you think it couldn't???? you mean it's not "normally distributed" which is correct.

-leptokurtosis = fat tails. this is true. keep in mind it also means a high peak around the mean. therefore markets tend to both be more boring (more quiet days) and more wild (more extreme tail events) than predicted by the normal distribution.

but it doesnt matter because only the academics and some really crappy models honestly assume normality. sadly, several trillion dollars are managed with these models.

and fat tails = trends. WRONG. autocorrelation = trends.

basic stats... it's important if you want to understand the market in a mathematical way you have to know this stuff.

Quote from Alexis:

try this:

market are not random because price distribution shows leptokurtosis = fat tails = trends.

Randomness doesn't (not in the same way, at least)
More...
 
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