The market is not random

Quote from BSAM:

Right. But, since you trade real money, I just wonder if you can teach us a method that works 100% of the time, since you believe markets are not random? Thanks.

I can't do that. I can find the non randomness after the fact but not before. I see your point. Case closed. Sorry for wasting your time.

Have a profitable trading.
 
Quote from ivanbaj:

I can't do that. I can find the non randomness after the fact but not before. I see your point. Case closed. Sorry for wasting your time.

Have a profitable trading.

Well, hang in there. Actually, what you are doing, is making sense of the chaos. That's a good thing.
 
Quote from oraclewizard77:

Someone flys a plane into a building, but before they do, their friends buy put options on the airline stocks.

The airline stocks go down, and their friends make profit, so is that random?

Your example is evidenced by the obvious downtrend prior to the event occurring and highlights the fact that the people on the other side of their trade were not of equal intelligence of future market events, thus making the "coin toss" between these two participants skewed to the ones with prior knowledge.

Efficient yes, random, no.
 
Quote from swtrader:

isnt there a thread in the oil futures section where someone called someone 'grasshopper' then promptly got their fucking head handed to them on a wrong long from 57 down to 35?

stop at 29

do your research little grasshopper
 
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