The market is not random

[ivanbaj]

This is a renko chart of an actual future contract. It seems that there are about 250 boxes. I see that there are few big consecutive runs:

18 up boxes
23 up boxes

Can someone calculate the probability of getting 18 and 23 consecutive runs within 250 tries?

My calculations show that if there is 50% chance of getting an up or down box the probability of getting the above is very low.

I see such runs very often. This is only one random sample.

I say the market is not random. Does this mean that it is not efecient?

 

[veritas007]

It means that the market isn't normally distributed, not that it isn't random or efficient.

 

[circadian]

Or maybe it's just because you posted a Renko chart that showed an uptrend, and thus had a couple of long consecutive up legs.

Trending Renko charts are a hot mess. To see the yin to your chart's yang, see the attachment.

 

[circadian]

Here's a great one, a Renko crude chart. This chart is the tale of 2008.

 

[someone]

market is RANDOM

but you are too young to know

give yourself few years grasshopper

give it few years

 

[twofacedjoker]

Quote from someone:

market is RANDOM

but you are too young to know

give yourself few years grasshopper

give it few years

First, convince yourself blooming grasshopper.

 

[someone]

Quote from twofacedjoker:

First, convince yourself blooming grasshopper.

you have no idea who you are talking to

banks would KILL to employ me

 

[twofacedjoker]

Quote from someone:

you have no idea who you are talking to

banks would KILL to employ me

Why?

 

[someone]

Quote from twofacedjoker:

Why?

I know for a fact you ain't dumb

what you don't know is that

I ain't dumb either

good trading to ya

 

[NeoRio1]

Quote from someone:

I know for a fact you ain't dumb

what you don't know is that

I ain't dumb either

good trading to ya

Hows it going jasonn? Bad I assume.