"The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain liquid"

[vanzandt]

So basically, just up and up and up?

Did that come up as 4 images? I was afraid of that. That wasn't intentional. My browser acted it like it didn't want to upload the images, I tried 3X and then finally just pasted a sceengrab.
My bad if you see 4 images. I see just one image with the 3 (IMG)'s as below:

____________________________________________

 

[They]

In trading, we don't care whether market is rational or irrational.

we care about trendiness.
If market moves in organised fashion, we are interested to trade it.
If market moves in disorganised erratic chaotic fashion, we stay away from it.

If market has up momentum, we focus on taking long position.
If market has down momentum, we focus on taking short position.

If market is reversing to go down, we focus on taking short position.
If market is reversing to go up, we focus on taking long position.

If market moves in an organized fashion in a constricted price range we scalp it using tight stops with an automated order algorithm.

 

[vanzandt]

This is so true... but it applies to the BS stocks. The ones that retail players chase because they heard it on CNBC or something. I go back to NVDA again. Its a perfect example of that which you speak. Its textbook.

It dropped as a matter of course... then had a mediocre ER/conference call... next thing you know it was $172. People bought it in droves, following that psychology. Next day it was like $160. Can't pass that up, gotta buy. A week later its in the $130's. There was a post on here where somebody was convinced it was going to $500. Said there was no way it couldn't.

Most retail players (and I have to assume many professional players) are stupid.
You buy value.
Anything with a PE north of 50 is coming down.
In 2008, it was brutal. Some high flyers took 50% haircuts. The stupid stocks. That era's equivalent of faang. But low PE companies that had tangible future growth like MCD, ROST, Amgen, Panera... hell they were up for the year. There are are dozens of companies that have consistent yoy increases in their stock prices since 1999. Use this: https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/JNJ/johnson-johnson/stock-price-history

What I am seeing now... both real time and in the market psyche as a whole in the last 2 weeks... is people throwing out the baby with the bathwater because they are being inundated with friggin brainwashing. Yeah... wake the f*ck up... NFLX was a PIG. Twilio trades at like 300 times the next century's estimated earnings. Its $70 now because $100 was a little too "op-ti-f'n-mistic". Ya think? Duh.


So whatever. Who cares anyway. This is Elite Trader, not Elite Investor.
Trade what you see. But lets not tell our not so sanguine friends and family the sky is falling and they need to be all cash or buying gold for Christsake.... because America is just fine. Look around. "Feel the economy".
(queue Lee Greenwood)

Told ya'll so.

 

[destriero]

lol the market rallies 6% today and this call is STILL UNDERWATER. HTF do you do it, vanzandt?

 

[Cuddles]

lol the market rallies 6% today and this call is STILL UNDERWATER. HTF do you do it, vanzandt?

Which call? Must've missed it

 

[vanzandt]

Somebody better poke that bear.

 

[Carlll]

Markets have always moved from extreme optimism to extreme pessimism. Those are somehow normal cycles in almost every country with open economy. What I see today is more related to short term market correction moved by news on FED rate decision, rather than some sort of market pessimism

 

[murray t turtle]

Told ya'll so.

You buy value.
Anything with a PE north of 50 is coming down.
In 2008, it was brutal. Some high flyers took 50% haircuts...... That era's equivalent of faang. But low PE companies that had tangible future growth like MCD, ROST, Amgen, Panera... they were up for the year.
Trade what you see. But lets not tell our not so sanguine friends and family the sky is falling and they need to be all cash or buying gold for Christsake.... because America is just fine. Look around. "Feel the economy".
(queue Lee Greenwood)[/QUOTE]
%%
Carl Ichan + Jim Rogers have done well with value stocks;
most do not.Good points , Vanzandt,on MCD........................................................

But the most common pattern i see in the markets, is a low PE goes lower; sure there are some exceptions like MCD....
QQQ sure went down more,than AMGN ,in 3 year bear of 2000. QQQ/tech almost always has a higher PE; grows more. But i see more fake news in WSJ, pretending a low PE is a buy LOL. Or WSJ pretending 30 old companies should be a buy 'cause of low PE.And PE were @record highs @ early 2009.........

Did make money off a low PE trade, but only because i tried to find something wrong with it + never could find something wrong with it.LOL . Carl Ichan/value has the unusual/strange habit of announcing his buys with plenty of uptrend left in them+ he has done that well for decades. NOT a prediction

 

[ironchef]

Carl Ichan/value has the unusual/strange habit of announcing his buys with plenty of uptrend left in them+ he has done that well for decades. NOT a prediction

He wants to leave something for us small retail traders.