There will be a great opportunity to buy and hold but doing it too soon will kill you. We're at the part of the business cycle we should be seeing a proper bear market... The only thing that's surprising is how long this cycle lasted.
"The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain liquid"
- Thread starter vanzandt
- Start date
Thats my point exactly. Too many metrics out there right now argue against the bear. By definition, I guess we're there. But what's in a term? Semantics really.
Trade what you see day to day. For sure. Take profits when you have them. We trade.
But at what PE do companies like CRM, ORCL, or LULU, become a buy in a "bear market"? Thats when you have to look at the PEG ratio I guess. If forward earnings are going to contract, then the PE at which a company becomes attractive moves lower. Thats what happens in a recession.
But are we there? Are we even close? I can look around and say the answer is no. We are far from a recession. And who has a crystal ball that says we are heading for one?
Overvalued tech brought this market down. Indexes will re-balance and slog their way back up. Until a recession hits. For now, I think this is just a reasonable pullback as common sense has set in. Companies trading at 15X sales with no positive FCF have no business trading at the levels they have been. They got dumped. Companies like NVDA got chopped in half. As well it should have been. Its a chip stock. Examples like this abound in the last 4 weeks. Water is seeking its rightful level.
We need way more confirmation than just this recent pullback to declare an official bear imo.
But the DOW is what the MSM pumps out nightly. It sets the tone for all those that know nothing and are worried about their 401K's. The ones that call their FP's and say "I want out". Forcing more liquidations.
Correct.
There has to be follow through and right now you don't have it.
Good summary of bear market psychology. It's for this exact reason why I generally scoff at the notion that people will go "all in" when it pulls back to some magical number. The problem with that sort of thinking is that the "fundamentals" and economic landscape deteriorate so much in the interim. It sounds great to think of buying the S&P another 20-30% lower, but once prices get there it's a full on liquidity rout.
Give it up already. You stuck your line in the sand, took huge losses the entire way lower and now are right back to the same old nonsense.
Not me brother. I flatten out daily. Pretty rare for me to hold anything overnight.
I'm addressing the fact that many people are contemplating going all cash in their retirement funds.
That seems to be the mantra this week. If that gains steam, which it probably will as I think this week will see continued downward pressure, its like a snowball effect.
Thing is though... is it all for not? A fools-bear. Thats what I'm wondering.
Good point. Very true.
For those that have traded a long time the market conditions we are having is a true traders paradise, a return to the norm -volatility. Disciplined traders that major in majors, not minors - like trying to make a few lousy ticks or points every trade or day have incredible opportunities to make large profits both from the short & long side.
Call it what ever you want to - it sure is an object in motion & that's what us traders desire, we have been incredibly lucky to not have a flat market for a very long time, which is the kiss of death to traders.
As usual the big headlines ripe with delusional thinking are seen at the big tops. Trumps Tweet sure alarmed the more veteran fund managers & traders - this was the big billboard shouting "short here". Not to mention the market ignoring raising interest rates & a trade war which always sends the markets plunging.
Call it what ever you want to - it sure is an object in motion & that's what us traders desire, we have been incredibly lucky to not have a flat market for a very long time, which is the kiss of death to traders.
As usual the big headlines ripe with delusional thinking are seen at the big tops. Trumps Tweet sure alarmed the more veteran fund managers & traders - this was the big billboard shouting "short here". Not to mention the market ignoring raising interest rates & a trade war which always sends the markets plunging.