"The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain liquid"

[Overnight]

...JNJ was where my browser was at the time.
That one is more than likely going down btw. Go balls deep short intraday this week when it hits the previous highs. If you want a crystal ball on how to play JNJ... pull up a 2 year chart of EFX. It'll be a close parallel....

What the hell? People are going to stop having babies, and stop putting adhesive bandages on their kids now that we have some market tumult?

J&J to the moon! (OK, they are having an issue with their talcum-based baby powder, oops) They will get through it. Teehee.

Vanz, how about Unilever? Who the hell does not like coming out of the shower and that orgasmic feeling of clearing out the ol' ear canal with a Q-Tip™? That feeling is addictive!

To the moon! Fundamentals! roffle.

 

[nooby_mcnoob]

History doesn't repeat, but it rhymes: https://www.elitetrader.com/et/threads/average-joe-starting-to-talk-about-economy.136654/

Wait until your dentist starts telling you about a shitty economy. Then go all in. Right now, it's still just a correction.

 

[sle]

Everyone has babies, so they need baby shampoo. The babies get a bit older and scrape their knees and elbows and then need band-aids. It is a genius plan. I think they are trying to take over the world with this plan.

They should add perforated condoms to their product line to complete the scheme!

 

[ktm]

The media does exacerbate all of it. I love watching the talking heads brag about how they had this. Just once on Power Lunch I'd love to hear one of these guys say "Yeah I added some longs on that one this AM and had to bail an hour ago because I got my ass handed to me".

The media has to EXPLAIN what just happened with a narrative. You can tune in at 3:55pm with the Dow up 10 points and hear "market is up today on QCOM earnings", then again at 3:58pm with the Dow down 10 and hear "market retreats today on fears of higher inflation". And of course it's all bullshit but people buy into it and it plays heavily into retail sentiment. And it's the same when we are up or down 500.

Some of this downdraft may be sovereign wealth funds bailing, or some HFs liquidating, or algo's. I have no idea, but a lot of money has flowed out. And as VZ said, I guarantee you Warren Buffett is sitting at home this AM with price levels already worked out for some specific companies where he will buy 5B or 10B of stock since "it's a great company at a great price".

I see some of you trying to work out where the market is fundamentally attractively valued. I used to do that too. Then I found myself sitting there holding a long telling the dropping index on my screen that they don't understand - that we're at historic lows on this metric and it's great value - apparently Keynes had done that as well. The algo's and people liquidating don't give a shit about any ratios or valuations, but the PUT on this market is really the Warren Buffett types that have plenty of dry powder. You won't know where they are getting in until after it's happened.

 

[murray t turtle]

Saw a story somewhere... "surprisingly, nobody is short".

%% Sounds like CBS=fake news; latest CBS ad=''real news,LOL''

{Delayed edit,OK did close it out for weekend -like to get

paid weekly.CBS is fake news]

 

[vanzandt]

 

[maxinger]

In trading, we don't care whether market is rational or irrational.

we care about trendiness.
If market moves in organised fashion, we are interested to trade it.
If market moves in disorganised erratic chaotic fashion, we stay away from it.

If market has up momentum, we focus on taking long position.
If market has down momentum, we focus on taking short position.

If market is reversing to go down, we focus on taking short position.
If market is reversing to go up, we focus on taking long position.

 

[nooby_mcnoob]

View attachment 196136

So basically, just up and up and up?

 

[Cuddles]

View attachment 196136

Reads like save-face propaganda amid the market turmoil. I say sell these news.

 

[panzerman]

In trading, we don't care whether market is rational or irrational.

we care about trendiness.
If market moves in organised fashion, we are interested to trade it.
If market moves in disorganised erratic chaotic fashion, we stay away from it.

If market has up momentum, we focus on taking long position.
If market has down momentum, we focus on taking short position.

If market is reversing to go down, we focus on taking short position.
If market is reversing to go up, we focus on taking long position.

That's the game isn't it? Finding when one market regime ends and another begins, in real time. The problem is that regime changes are randomly distributed through time. However, not perfectly random, so perhaps there is your opportunity.