The homebuilders are officially over..

Japanese Investors Buy More Overseas Debt

Ahh, the old interest rate differential game.

I have noticed that HOV was down a little more than 6% yesterday following its earnings disaster but is up along with all the homebuilders today. Wow, crash city there! They're all trading where they were a few months ago. No biggie.

10 year @ 4.12%
Unemployment @ 4.9%

Housing will be strong as far as the eye can see.
 
Quote from swtrader:

could have said the same thing about tech 5 years ago

this whole insanity has been fed by the chinese buying debt at the margin

you'd be nuts to buy a colateralized mortgage obligation based on california property for 5%

you dont share in the upside, but you do share on the downside

i think the chinese will start soaking up commodities, to insure themselves long term

pumping air into an overinflated foregin housing market is stupid for them

and i think they're figuring that out
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How do you know what the Chinese are thinking? Noone does.
 
Quote from areyoukidding?:

How do you know what the Chinese are thinking? Noone does.
More...

I don't

I can only consider their situation, and observe their actions

notice their bid for Unocal, and talks about oil with Iran?
 
Quote from swtrader:

could have said the same thing about tech 5 years ago

this whole insanity has been fed by the chinese buying debt at the margin

you'd be nuts to buy a colateralized mortgage obligation based on california property for 5%

you dont share in the upside, but you do share on the downside

i think the chinese will start soaking up commodities, to insure themselves long term

pumping air into an overinflated foregin housing market is stupid for them

and i think they're figuring that out
More...


i called that one
 
I have changed my mind from an earlier post.....

I think most, if not all, public homebuilders will not be around much longer...

Their expertise is large land development and mass construction gaining economy of scale on cost.....a lot of their profit was actually land/lot appreciation, finance, but not profit on house

It may be years before that type of development is needed..

The small local or regional builder is more nimble and knows location better....will be able to build cost effective

Hedge funds would be ideal partner for Toll, Hovanian etc...have buckets of cash, no where to put it....builder doesn't have to beg lenders for money....

I would think getting a bank loan to buy a large tract of land and develop moderate priced housing is the toughest to get for the next several years....

They will decide not worth it to be public company...not much equity left anyway....

SteveD
 
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