The homebuilders are officially over..

how soon might a continued drop in home builder stocks
and reits stocks be reflected in lower

real estate sales across the USA ?

if someone is somehow able to chart median home
apartment / condo sales against these indice's

for the last few yrs ... that would be greatly appreciated ...

I guess I can always print out separate charts and overlay them by hand

:p
 
Quote from SethArb:

how soon might a continued drop in home builder stocks
and reits stocks be reflected in lower

real estate sales across the USA ?

Interesting point...

There must be some historical references?
More...
 
The home buiders were great runners while they lasted ..... I have been buying puts on Tol ....but one thing to watch is the short interest being careful not to get caught in a short squeeze
 
Keep in mind that REIT's and public homebuilders have very little if anything to do with each other.

The homebuilders will keep trucking along just fine. May not have the quarterly increases but they will still make a lot of money.

Home prices may slow their increase also, and even drop a little in some "hot" areas, but will stay up compared to 5 years ago prices.

Condo's and second (vacation/speculative) homes may get a little hit also.

We will probably see some very tough new regulations coming out on exactly where and where not new construction can take place.

In these locations, housing that is damaged or destroyed will not be built back. I would guess that a lot of proposed condo development may never get done.

If you cannot state in less than 30 seconds what a REIT is you should not be investing in them.

SteveD
 
Quote from SteveD:
We will probably see some very tough new regulations coming out on exactly where and where not new construction can take place.


Hope your correct about that part!

Many parts of the coastlines exposed to hurricanes

Many parts of the heartland exposed to tornados, and built on slabs with no basements!

Agree!
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Quote from Trend Fader:

HOV misses earnings tonight.. and fed beige book says they see a slowdown in homes taking place...

Price lead the fundementals... but now all rallys will be sold into... the cyclical boom is over...
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You called it perfectly.
 
Quote from areyoukidding?:

What a joke. Head on against the strongest sector in the US economy. Have fun fighting it Trend Fader.
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could have said the same thing about tech 5 years ago

this whole insanity has been fed by the chinese buying debt at the margin

you'd be nuts to buy a colateralized mortgage obligation based on california property for 5%

you dont share in the upside, but you do share on the downside

i think the chinese will start soaking up commodities, to insure themselves long term

pumping air into an overinflated foregin housing market is stupid for them

and i think they're figuring that out
 
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