The homebuilders are officially over..

[TorontoTrader2]

It's an interesting play. IYR - top holdings are all REITS:

http://www.amex.com/etf/prodInf/EtPiHoldings.jsp?Product_Symbol=IYR

As for HOV, it bounced off 200 day recently, and TOL bounced off daily 100 day SMA, they would have to break that support 1st.


RWR is another REIT one.

 

[gharghur2]

New Homes Sales were up over 5% last month

With all the immigration and population growth going on this is now a growth industry, no longer a cyclical. Soon the homey's will start reflecting that in thier multiples.

For now, it's a downtrend.

 

[Trend Fader]

Quote from gharghur2:

New Homes Sales were up over 5% last month

With all the immigration and population growth going on this is now a growth industry, no longer a cyclical. Soon the homey's will start reflecting that in thier multiples.

For now, it's a downtrend.

Selling $650k second homes like TOL.. is not a growth industry. Lets get real here.

Its a by product of the huge speculative RE bubble and asset inflation wealth effect.

Problem with the housing industry is that eventually they go up so much that the house prices are no longer affordable.. like right now .. will take years for prices to stablilze..

When house prices stop going up and buying stabilizes or goes down... their earnings will take years to recover.

--Mike

 

[gharghur2]

Quote from Trend Fader:

Selling $650k second homes like TOL.. is not a growth industry. Lets get real here.

Problem with the housing industry is that eventually they go up so much that the house prices are no longer affordable.. like right now .. will take years for prices to stablilze..

--Mike

Good points!

But people scale up in $650K houses, and then use their smaller houses for investments. The speculation I believe is in the condo markets and the very high end or very low end of the housing market.

Their profits have grown substantially, but they do not need higher prices for growth, just continued increases in sales.

Tony

 

[areyoukidding?]

Quote from Trend Fader:

Selling $650k second homes like TOL.. is not a growth industry. Lets get real here.

Its a by product of the huge speculative RE bubble and asset inflation wealth effect.

Problem with the housing industry is that eventually they go up so much that the house prices are no longer affordable.. like right now .. will take years for prices to stablilze..

When house prices stop going up and buying stabilizes or goes down... their earnings will take years to recover.

--Mike

Tell us something we dont know already. Whats harder is seeing that a home is everyones precious investment and that when the shit hits the fan, people and especially the Fed will rally around this idea.

 

[aPismoClam]

someone's gonna by busy rebuilding a few cities in the south...don't think that would affect construction, though, do you?

 

[gharghur2]

Quote from areyoukidding?:

Tell us something we dont know already. Whats harder is seeing that a home is everyones precious investment and that when the shit hits the fan, people and especially the Fed will rally around this idea.

Agree about the FED!

However, feel the FED has been tight because of the escalation in housing prices. Greenspan has 'bubble' fears! Now, that existing home sales are sliding I'm sure they will go on hold.

Tony

 

[gharghur2]

Quote from aPismoClam:

someone's gonna by busy rebuilding a few cities in the south...don't think that would affect construction, though, do you?

Good point!
And probably all new homes too
Water damage is nasty

 

[capmac]

15:03 Point Losers List: Housing/Home Improvement

Stocks pacing the way on a point basis include: WLS -9.75, SHLD -7.53, BMHC -6.21, CRL -4.54, HOV -4.03, ZMH -3.72, MTH -2.98, JWL -2.61, NIHD -2.59, BHS -2.56, BZH -2.24, CCE -2.09, MHK -2.01, LEN -1.94, JOE -1.72, KBH -1.70, TOL -1.70, IVGN -1.66, CELG -1.65, JOSB -1.65, MDC -1.65.

 

[gharghur2]

They had a big run up before this decline
A good 2 -3 month base building would do them well