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The Herd, Vaccine and Natural Immunity Thread....
- Thread starter jem
- Start date
So your implicit shutdown forever belief is really moronic. Our shutdown in the US did not make this virus go away so after the first about 3 weeks it has done far more damage than it has saved in all likelyhood.
Was three weeks enough time to get all the PPE, train everyone, organize everything and adapt procedures? And all the other things? Learn which drugs/therapies help and which hinder?
Two to three months in the real world Jem. About how long countries had their initial lockdowns oddly enough eh?
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Was three weeks enough time to get all the PPE, train everyone, organize everything and adapt procedures? And all the other things? Learn which drugs/therapies help and which hinder?
Two to three months in the real world Jem. About how long countries had their initial lockdowns oddly enough eh?
This is like any large macro event given time the real truth will be clear and many will try to pretend they didn't have certain opinions or make excuses why they were wrong. It's like the Great Depression of 2010-2011 and the famous stock market crash below 2008/2009 lows that occurred in 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, ... . Oh wait, none of that happened, quite the opposite really.
One obvious from that time period is that those that were most certain of outcomes and/or used personal models or systems to forecast events full of uncertainties and complexities were often the most wrong and didn't give up until well past the point they were proven wrong.
There is no certainty with the virus yet. However, while we move forward, risks should be taken smartly to reduce the current damages until we get there whatever there is. Clearly this is not the case in the US the last week. Dead is dead, a lot of Americans died needlessly this week imo.
I can't side with a guy like Jem that comes up with his theories and then uses it as a reason he should be able to go to the beach in the middle of an outbreak. My softball leagues got cancelled this week. I'm ok with that decision. I don't have to play this year. A lot of people aren't wearing masks when they should be. This seems to be more of a problem in the US then Canada, but there are plenty of people in Canada also refusing science, just not as many. This is why mandated mask usage is probably a thing soon it already occurred in Kingston, Ontario. Expecting common sense behavior doesn't work with everyone.
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What does a 10x number do to the infection fatality rate?
https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/06/25/coronavirus-cases-10-times-larger/
CDC chief says coronavirus cases may be 10 times higher than reported
The number of people in the United States who have been infected with the coronavirus is likely to be 10 times as high as the 2.4 million confirmed cases, based on antibody tests, the head of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said Thursday.
CDC Director Robert Redfield’s estimate, shared with reporters in a conference call, indicates that at least 24 million Americans have been infected so far.
The antibody tests examine a person’s blood for indicators that the immune system has mounted a response to an infection. The serological surveys are being done around the country as epidemiologists try to measure the reach of the virus to date. Redfield said he believes 5 to 8 percent of the population has been infected so far.
Significantly, that would mean 92 to 95 percent remain susceptible to a coronavirus infection. Experts say this is the critical data point showing that the pandemic remains in its early stages and people need to continue to try to limit the viral spread.
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The CDC director’s comments came as case counts continued to surge to record levels in many states, particularly in the South and West, during warm-weather months that many had hoped would provide a lull in the pandemic.
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Across the United States, 39,327 new coronavirus infections were reported by state health departments on Thursday — surpassing the previous single-day record of 38,115, which was set on Wednesday. Texas, Alabama, Missouri and Nevada reported daily highs. The death toll also spiked, to about 2,500, as New Jersey added 1,854 probable deaths to its overall tally.
Amid signs that Texas has lost control of the epidemic, Gov. Greg Abbott (R) announced the state would pause its reopening to try to halt the flow of infections. He said he is focused on strategies to slow the viral spread “while also allowing Texans to continue earning a paycheck to support their families. The last thing we want to do as a state is go backwards and close down businesses.”
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As part of that pause, he suspended elective surgeries at hospitals in hard-hit Bexar, Dallas, Harris and Travis counties — home to the cities of San Antonio, Dallas, Houston and Austin, respectively. The rolling average of daily new cases in Texas has increased 62 percent from the past week, jumping from 2,610 on June 18 to 4,227 on Thursday, according to data tracked by The Washington Post. The daily count has set a record each day for 13 consecutive days.
The economic crisis triggered by the pandemic continues to roil the corporate sector. Macy’s said it is laying off 3,900 corporate employees and managers. Chuck E. Cheese’s parent company filed for bankruptcy protection. Both actions were due to the virus’s impact on sales, the companies said.
Apple said Thursday it is re-closing 14 stores in Florida. The state reported a second consecutive day of more than 5,000 new confirmed coronavirus cases.
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Larry Kudlow, the White House’s top economic official, said during an appearance on Fox Business Network that the administration does not anticipate a second wave of infections, which has been projected by health experts, and that new hot spots popping up across the country are scenarios Americans will “just have to live with.”
Some officials in the Trump administration, including the president, argue the surging cases simply reflect expanded testing. But infectious-disease experts, including Anthony S. Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, dispute that, saying they also reflect increased community transmission.
Redfield said that younger people are the leading edge of that transmission. “Young people, many newly mobile after months of lockdowns, have been getting tested more often in recent weeks and driving the surge in cases in the South and West,” he said.
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“In the past, I just don’t think we diagnosed these infections,” he said.
Redfield’s comments oscillated between downplaying the latest news bulletins and declaring that the rising numbers are indeed worrisome.
He said that a color-coded map of infections can make the country look as though the surge is widespread — “substantial portions of the United States are in red” — but said that only 3 percent of counties nationwide have actually become “hot spots.”
He also repeatedly pointed out that young people, who are less likely to have a severe outcome from the virus, are getting tested more often. But under questioning, he said he was not downplaying the significance of the surge in cases in places such as Texas, Florida and Arizona.
“This is a significant event,” he said. “We had a significant increase in cases. . . . We need to interrupt that.”
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Redfield said Americans need to weigh their individual risks as they go about their lives. “When you must go out into the community, being in contact with few people is better than many, [and] shorter periods are better than longer,” he said.
Above all, he said, people should maintain social distancing, wash hands frequently and properly wear a face covering when they are unable to socially distance.
The death toll nationally from covid-19, the disease caused by the novel coronavirus, has dropped since it peaked in April, during the catastrophic outbreak in New York City and nearby areas. Many experts have warned that the effects of the reopening of the economy in May and the increased mobility and decline in social distancing could reverse that recent trend. Covid-19 can lead to a protracted illness, and in those cases there is typically a lag of several weeks between an infection and death.
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On Thursday, the CDC also made significant changes in how it categorizes people at elevated risk of a severe outcome from covid-19. The agency had previously said that people over 65 face higher risk. But it removed that age marker, saying that risk increases steadily with age.
Conditions that pose a higher risk for serious illness include chronic kidney disease, serious heart disease, COPD (chronic obstructive pulmonary disease), a weakened immune system from a solid organ transplant, Type 2 diabetes, obesity and newly added: sickle cell disease, an inherited blood disorder that affects 90,000 to 100,000 people in the United States, mainly African Americans.
Officials clarified that obesity means a body mass index of 30 or higher. Roughly 40 percent of the adult population is obese under that definition. A person who is 5-foot-5 and weighs 180 pounds has a BMI of 30. That same person who weighs 240 pounds would have a BMI of 40.
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For the first time, agency officials said pregnant women with covid-19 may face a higher risk of hospitalization and treatment in intensive care units and respiratory help with a mechanical ventilator. The same data, however, shows that pregnant women are not at higher risk of dying. Officials said they are still researching the effects on newborns.
Although pregnant women are at risk for severe disease associated with other respiratory illnesses, such as influenza, there has been limited data related to covid-19 on pregnancy until now, health experts said.
In the CDC report on pregnancy and covid19 released Thursday, researchers compared the impact of the disease on more than 8,000 pregnant women and 83,000 nonpregnant women from Jan. 22 to June 7.
Pregnant women were over five times as likely to be hospitalized as nonpregnant women, 1.5 times as likely to be admitted to intensive care units, and 1.7 times as likely to require mechanical ventilation, the report said. There was no higher risk for death among the pregnant women.
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The CDC report also found that black and Hispanic pregnant women appear to be disproportionately hit by covid-19.
“This is the most convincing evidence that pregnant women with covid-19 are more likely to have severe disease, although the absolute risk is still low,” said Denise Jamieson, chair of the gynecology and obstetrics department at Emory University School of Medicine and chief of gynecology and obstetrics for Emory Healthcare, who was not involved in the report.
Among pregnant women with confirmed infections who reported race or ethnicity, 46 percent were Hispanic, 22 percent were black and 23 percent were white. That suggests the disproportionate impact of the disease on blacks and Latinos: In 2019, white women accounted for 51 percent of those who gave birth, compared with 24 percent who were Hispanic, and 15 percent who were black.
Steven Goff, Teo Armus and Hamza Shaban contributed to this report.
Time to do some math -
The Case Fatality Rate (CFR) in the U.S. today is 4.88% (128,392 deaths / 2,630,507 cases)
The expected Infection Fatality Rate (IFR) in the U.S. is between 0.3% and 0.8%. Note that the IFR is merely an unproven estimate which is why CFR is used in medical studies.
If the unreported coronavirus cases may be 10 times higher than reported then it merely means that IFR is approx. one tenth of the CFR.... which means the suggested range for IFR in the U.S. between 0.3% and 0.8% is correct.
This is another reason I call you nine morons.
You make assumptions and then act as if you know things for a fact.
I was following San Diego's rules... moron...
The life guards were even policing the policy the first 2 or 3 weekends.
You make assumptions and then act as if you know things for a fact.
I was following San Diego's rules... moron...
The life guards were even policing the policy the first 2 or 3 weekends.
This is like any large macro event given time the real truth will be clear and many will try to pretend they didn't have certain opinions or make excuses why they were wrong. It's like the Great Depression of 2010-2011 and the famous stock market crash below 2008/2009 lows that occurred in 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, ... . Oh wait, none of that happened, quite the opposite really.
One obvious from that time period is that those that were most certain of outcomes and/or used personal models or systems to forecast events full of uncertainties and complexities were often the most wrong and didn't give up until well past the point they were proven wrong.
There is no certainty with the virus yet. However, while we move forward, risks should be taken smartly to reduce the current damages until we get there whatever there is. Clearly this is not the case in the US the last week. Dead is dead, a lot of Americans died needlessly this week imo.
I can't side with a guy like Jem that comes up with his theories and then uses it as a reason he should be able to go to the beach in the middle of an outbreak. My softball leagues got cancelled this week. I'm ok with that decision. I don't have to play this year. A lot of people aren't wearing masks when they should be. This seems to be more of a problem in the US then Canada, but there are plenty of people in Canada also refusing science, just not as many. This is why mandated mask usage is probably a thing soon it already occurred in Kingston, Ontario. Expecting common sense behavior doesn't work with everyone.
Maybe... your math is acceptable
But, we know the Case Fatality Rate is going to go much lower over time because we had a lot of unnecessary Covid deaths in the beginning in States like CA, NY and NJ.
Also if you start with the CDCs best estimate numbers the IFR is likely going to be much lower than your number.
Unfortunately for our comparison the CDC did not use the same nomenclature as you.
But, we know the Case Fatality Rate is going to go much lower over time because we had a lot of unnecessary Covid deaths in the beginning in States like CA, NY and NJ.
Also if you start with the CDCs best estimate numbers the IFR is likely going to be much lower than your number.
Unfortunately for our comparison the CDC did not use the same nomenclature as you.
Time to do some math -
The Case Fatality Rate (CFR) in the U.S. today is 4.88% (128,392 deaths / 2,630,507 cases)
The expected Infection Fatality Rate (IFR) in the U.S. is between 0.3% and 0.8%. Note that the IFR is merely an unproven estimate which is why CFR is used in medical studies.
If the unreported coronavirus cases may be 10 times higher than reported then it merely means that IFR is approx. one tenth of the CFR.... which means the suggested range for IFR in the U.S. between 0.3% and 0.8% is correct.
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It was more than enough to know in places outside of the clusters we had excess hospital capacity. Which was the justification for the shutdown.
Seriously... you fail to even acknowledge the point I have been making.
You want focus on everything but the point I have been making.
If you are going to shutdown the low risk group when you have the hospital capacity...
That is destroy lives, income businesses, emotional and mental health...
Should you at least try to weigh the harm being done by the shutdown vs harm that would be done without the shutdown.
Should you not have the science and data before you do something for the first time in history as drastic as a blanket lockdown of the healthy?
Its not just about saving Covid lives... we should be concerned about lives we are saving or deaths we are causing overall and the other damage we are doing overall.
It could be massively selfish of you all for doing what you have done to others.
Without the data and science its just all bullshit and guesses.
Seriously... you fail to even acknowledge the point I have been making.
You want focus on everything but the point I have been making.
If you are going to shutdown the low risk group when you have the hospital capacity...
That is destroy lives, income businesses, emotional and mental health...
Should you at least try to weigh the harm being done by the shutdown vs harm that would be done without the shutdown.
Should you not have the science and data before you do something for the first time in history as drastic as a blanket lockdown of the healthy?
Its not just about saving Covid lives... we should be concerned about lives we are saving or deaths we are causing overall and the other damage we are doing overall.
It could be massively selfish of you all for doing what you have done to others.
Without the data and science its just all bullshit and guesses.
Was three weeks enough time to get all the PPE, train everyone, organize everything and adapt procedures? And all the other things? Learn which drugs/therapies help and which hinder?
Two to three months in the real world Jem. About how long countries had their initial lockdowns oddly enough eh?
Last edited:
It was more than enough to know in places outside of the clusters we had excess hospital capacity. Which was the justification for the shutdown.
Seriously... you fail to even acknowledge the point I have been making.
You want focus on everything but the point I have been making.
If you are going to shutdown the low risk group when you have the hospital capacity...
That is destroy lives, income businesses, emotional and mental health...
Should you at least try to weigh the harm being done by the shutdown vs harm that would be done without the shutdown.
Should you not have the science and data before you do something for the first time in history as drastic as a blanket lockdown of the healthy?
Its not just about saving Covid lives... we should be concerned about lives we are saving or deaths we are causing overall and the other damage we are doing overall.
It could be massively selfish of you all for doing what you have done to others.
Without the data and science its just all bullshit and guesses.
The point you were making was that in three weeks from the first lockdown more harm than good was being done even though the ability to measure the problem was not there to inform the science?
Ah that makes sense now.
Read de Prados paper and understand the models. I know you have the brain power for that. Maybe you could give us some useful insights.
The point I am making and de Prado made is that after a short lockdown if you continue to isolate the high risk and let the low risk out... you may get a few more deaths from Covid but you could be saving overall deaths... and you are definitely going to avoid massive other damage and harm.
This concept become even more compelling as you realize that the data continues to show the virus preys on the elderly and those with co-morbidities just like we knew from the Italian data back in March and April.
a. this virus has a median death of around age 78 and that it kills more as you have more Co-morbidities
b. and that 96 to 98 percent of the people who have died have had co-morbidities.
We know who to protect.
We know that for healthy you people many won't even have symptoms and for others its just the flu.
There has been no data or science yet produced supporting the lockdown of the low risk outside of the clusters.
The point I am making and de Prado made is that after a short lockdown if you continue to isolate the high risk and let the low risk out... you may get a few more deaths from Covid but you could be saving overall deaths... and you are definitely going to avoid massive other damage and harm.
This concept become even more compelling as you realize that the data continues to show the virus preys on the elderly and those with co-morbidities just like we knew from the Italian data back in March and April.
a. this virus has a median death of around age 78 and that it kills more as you have more Co-morbidities
b. and that 96 to 98 percent of the people who have died have had co-morbidities.
We know who to protect.
We know that for healthy you people many won't even have symptoms and for others its just the flu.
There has been no data or science yet produced supporting the lockdown of the low risk outside of the clusters.
The point you were making was that in three weeks from the first lockdown more harm than good was being done even though the ability to measure the problem was not there to inform the science?
Ah that makes sense now.
This is another reason I call you nine morons.
You make assumptions and then act as if you know things for a fact.
I was following San Diego's rules... moron...
The life guards were even policing the policy the first 2 or 3 weekends.
Care to explain why Canada's numbers the last two weeks are so much better then US results ? It's a massive divergence even I'm surprised.