The gutfeel swing trade

[Zwaen]

Disclaimer: If you enter this trade (see below) and loose money, shame on you! -- You should "own" your own trades.
More babble: IFF one expects PANW to reach a new high in 6 months, the following option position could be appropriate for someone (not me as I have no reliable crystal ball).
Beware, just took this after hours, so prices may not be correct. Risk is less than owning outright, and the position can be done for credit, making use of unutilized margin. IFF you are correct, the payout should be better than a simple long position.
An example entry order from TOS.

BUY +<n> 2/-1/1 CUSTOM PANW 100 15 NOV 24/15 NOV 24/15 NOV 24 350/350/290 CALL/PUT/PUT @-2.55 LMT MARK

Thanks, would have to look in this

 

[Zwaen]

Update:
Directional brainfarts: looks like it can start moving in the anticipated direction. However, a few posters who I respect for their opinion are teasing me with their bearisch macro views. For now I'm staying in this long delta position, but keep an eye to possible change this position in coming 1-2 weeks. Anticipating a nice week up for now. If true, get out by end of the week and/or lighten up substantially.

 

[wxytrader]

Update:
Directional brainfarts: looks like it can start moving in the anticipated direction. However, a few posters who I respect for their opinion are teasing me with their bearisch macro views. For now I'm staying in this long delta position, but keep an eye to possible change this position in coming 1-2 weeks.

Update what? I told you its an ABC. ??

For now I'm staying in this long delta position, but keep an eye to possible change this position in coming 1-2 weeks.

Yes this is what I would be doing as well.

I'm the only directional trader on here...everyone else is just support resistance.

 

[Zwaen]

Fwiw, flattened position yesterday, sidelines until a lower entry point comes by, or miss this trade. Didn’t like the weak behavior relative to the indices (yeah, brainfart stuff).

 

[vanzandt]

PE 50

If it's a swing trade your target is $316

The problem is this-- earnings. they will not be good. I have made several mistakes in this sector. I thought that the very last thing companies would do is cut back on cyber security. I was wrong, last reporting period there were signs of less corporate tech buying in several of these names./ I expect the same for PANW.

These disgusting insiders are selling every day.

Wrong again.
Up $24 since this post.

 

[Zwaen]

Fwiw, flattened position yesterday, sidelines until a lower entry point comes by, or miss this trade. Didn’t like the weak behavior relative to the indices (yeah, brainfart stuff).

323.77.. I'm such an idiot (earnings don't count for dec.)

 

[stonedinvestor]

Wrong again.
Up $24 since this post.

UPDATE-

PANW traded at $290 yesterday. Today CRWD appears to have good numbers and it's doing well. You could look at that and say AI spending is not slowing them down at all.. or perhaps they are specializing in some fashion in AI and this CRWD strength could come at the expense of PANW.

I think in PANW's favor is that they already warned and talked of a slowdown- so that's out there.. and they have some deferred billing that should show up next report.

The TA here will be super important. Don't really know how I feel anymore.

 

[vanzandt]

UPDATE-

PANW traded at $290 yesterday. Today CRWD appears to have good numbers and it's doing well. You could look at that and say AI spending is not slowing them down at all.. or perhaps they are specializing in some fashion in AI and this CRWD strength could come at the expense of PANW.

I think in PANW's favor is that they already warned and talked of a slowdown- so that's out there.. and they have some deferred billing that should show up next report.

The TA here will be super important. Don't really know how I feel anymore.

Near term. Yes on the TA. For sure. And near term certainly matters for trading. Long term, they're both good. PANW is the best in breed. Tbh yesterday I thought about writing "it's my favorite tech stock now." And it kinda is.

When I first saw your post here (above)... I thought you were trolling me since you rarely post outside of GBA... but then I read it. Because you were gonna get a "How's you're COIN at $170 target from last week looking."

 

[Zwaen]

In my unconscious search for confirmation bias my eye fell on this:

I noticed the defense sector in my own (European) country was very actively recruiting about 1-2 years ago, it has slowed down now though. Recruiting is a mid- to long term view, imho.

Breakout coming to fill that gap (at least)? Looking for positioning for that.

The weekly chart looks bullish (just like it did at the arrows..)

 

[Zwaen]

I think/ thought this one is going to break out for a minimum test to around let’s say 330 somewhere next week. So a little squeeze up to get the shorts out who went for a trendline test.

Established a new long position Wednesday.Ofcourse immediately the day after down, but yesterday’s strong performance reestablished my gutfeel belief/gambling/randomness

The random points 345 and 365 would be other points where some profit taking could occur, but 330 would be first point to take some profit (if it gets there at all)