The gutfeel swing trade

[Zwaen]

Disclaimer: if you don’t want to get any dumber, stop reading now

Most of the times I’m a lurker trying to make a funny comment, but one sometimes one needs to go out and speak your thoughts and be critisized: I’m going to allocate a significant amount of money in this idea (or brainfart). I also need to provide entertainment to the smarter people to give them the incentive to stay here. Win-win, so to speak

So once in a while you read someting and decide to allocate more money to a particular idea because it speaks to you, or makes more sense than other ideas (and you like losing money). I s*ck extremely in short term directional trading, but with the macro themes I have done a little bit better in the past. It is basically based on "looking around" and try to get a sense of macro-/political factors and possible upcoming themes. For me it is mostly based on taking a quick look at ft.com (titles only) and as months and years pass, you think you can see some upcoming patterns. This time it was with possible upcomming cyber defense due to modern ways of warfare, not just economical, but also possible attacks on the “internet-structure” so to speak. And global tensions seem to pick up.

Then a few weeks later- or about the same time, @vanzandt starts to say the same things. To summarize, my rationale to go into PANW looks like:

- own gutfeel this could be a sector which is going to be more in demand then others
- @ vanzandt says so
- Pelosi says so (albeit bought unluckily a few days before the drop)
- PANW held up pretty well during the selloff

Another summary would be: this is the worst analysis I've ever read to base ones decision on

If you’re still reading, read on. It will get worser.

Here is the "chart". Now you see: “That’s a squiggly line b*tch!”

The lines are just a quick reference for a future expected price path. The lines “work”, you can easily see that because every stock ever issued is always moving in one simple channel since it’s inception. And so, PANW will listen and move up soon. Just logical thinking.

This will be a longer term swing trade, minimum 6 months. More of an allocation of capital. The core position are quarterly/yearly call options with sometimes/fraction of the core position shorter term call options sold.

 

[deaddog]

This will be a longer term swing trade, minimum 6 months. More of an allocation of capital. The core position are quarterly/yearly call options with sometimes/fraction of the core position shorter term call options sold.

I'm curious as to why you would set a time limit on a swing trade?
Or are you buying call options 6 months out and limiting your risk to the price of the options.

 

[wxytrader]

Disclaimer: if you don’t want to get any dumber, stop reading now

Most of the times I’m a lurker trying to make a funny comment, but one sometimes one needs to go out and speak your thoughts and be critisized: I’m going to allocate a significant amount of money in this idea (or brainfart). I also need to provide entertainment to the smarter people to give them the incentive to stay here. Win-win, so to speak

So once in a while you read someting and decide to allocate more money to a particular idea because it speaks to you, or makes more sense than other ideas (and you like losing money). I s*ck extremely in short term directional trading, but with the macro themes I have done a little bit better in the past. It is basically based on "looking around" and try to get a sense of macro-/political factors and possible upcoming themes. For me it is mostly based on taking a quick look at ft.com (titles only) and as months and years pass, you think you can see some upcoming patterns. This time it was with possible upcomming cyber defense due to modern ways of warfare, not just economical, but also possible attacks on the “internet-structure” so to speak. And global tensions seem to pick up.

Then a few weeks later- or about the same time, @vanzandt starts to say the same things. To summarize, my rationale to go into PANW looks like:

- own gutfeel this could be a sector which is going to be more in demand then others
- @ vanzandt says so
- Pelosi says so (albeit bought unluckily a few days before the drop)
- PANW held up pretty well during the selloff

Another summary would be: this is the worst analysis I've ever read to base ones decision on

If you’re still reading, read on. It will get worser.

Here is the "chart". Now you see: “That’s a squiggly line b*tch!”
View attachment 338652
The lines are just a quick reference for a future expected price path. The lines “work”, you can easily see that because every stock ever issued is always moving in one simple channel since it’s inception. And so, PANW will listen and move up soon. Just logical thinking.

This will be a longer term swing trade, minimum 6 months. More of an allocation of capital. The core position are quarterly/yearly call options with sometimes/fraction of the core position shorter term call options sold.

Here I fixed that for you.
First thing you have to do is ignore the news or trying to figure out the future news, because there are teams of people that have better information than you who will be ahead of it. The cool thing is the chart can actually predict the news for you.

The 3 wave is past the 1.618 level, and with the drop to .382 I would say this to qualifies as a correction not a pullback.

I would expect it to reverse to .236 level before continuing to 4, so we'll see if the earnings facilitates that. I mean this could be 4 now, technically, but statistically I would say 4 will be a longer correction. I would say .50 is a good 4 level for a single correction, but it can go as far as .618 with a double etc but cannot cross into 1 and still be valid.

 

[Zwaen]

I'm curious as to why you would set a time limit on a swing trade?
Or are you buying call options 6 months out and limiting your risk to the price of the options.

I don't put a direct time limit, but I think it will be a "trade" during 3-12 months, as a gauge. I do expect it to move more sideways before moving up, we'll see. So basically the hypothesis is that it won't move significantly down in the given months.

The 6 months is mere coincidence. I like to use the quarterlies because of liquidity/spread and use them as instruments/investment vehicles rather then ("limit the loss to the option price")

 

[Zwaen]

Here I fixed that for you.
First thing you have to do is ignore the news or trying to figure out the future news, because there are teams of people that have better information than you who will be ahead of it. The cool thing is the chart can actually predict the news for you.
.

There are tons and tons of people smarter, certainly in the financial industry, no illusions here.

I don't understand the rainbow lines My thoughts are that cybersecurity will be a theme soon, so "gutfeel"

 

[wxytrader]

There are tons and tons of people smarter, certainly in the financial industry, no illusions here.

I don't understand the rainbow lines My thoughts are that cybersecurity will be a theme soon, so "gutfeel"

I didn't say smarter. They just have better information. Trust me you don't have to be smart or educated to make money in stocks...in fact, as I've said before, sometimes you can be too smart to make money in stocks.

 

[vanzandt]

My thoughts are that cybersecurity will be a theme soon, so "gutfeel"

Agree 100%

Bryan Sullivan on CNBC did a piece Friday on AI generated videos. These things were unbelievably real. And they are literally in their infancy. In 2 years time, small businesses that could never afford a professionally made video ad, pfff, they will be able to make anything they want. No actors, no sets... nothing.

But the potential nefarious uses of this stuff... Scary scary. The genie's out of the bottle though, and like anything else, all the regulation in the world won't stop the bad actors.

Change is gonna come fast. If the market is gonna trade on NVDA this week, then it's going up. I'm not sure the market will however, but I am pretty sure any weakness in NVDA post earnings will be bought. How can it not be? The demand for their products is only going to increase exponentially. I just hope it doesn't lead to the end of times, as does everyone else obviously.

There's going to be a lot of opportunity in this stuff going forward. I predict a whole new industry will be born, its sole purpose being to prevent in advance, the type of chaos that a well timed, well placed fake could inspire. A lot of the tech stocks that we already know will be major players obviously, but I see this generating a whole new revenue stream for them that currently doesn't exist.

All the major cyber-security stocks are probably good buys on any dip for the long term. Crowdstrike, Palo Alto, Fortinet, Sentinal One... it's an easy lateral move for these companies I think. But there will be other companies that we have not yet heard of. Those will be where the big scores are made if we can find them early enough.

One thing's for sure imo...AI is not a bubble. It's more like Pandora's box. What happens next is anyone's guess, but make no mistake, there are new fortunes out there just waiting to be made in this stuff and the sky's the limit, because we are at the dawn of a new age. Of that, I am 100% sure.
~vz

As these things go however, I could see PANW dipping to, or even below, $265 near term.The trade is very crowded.

Don't lose the faith however. It'll be much higher a few years out. Near term is controled by algo's, long term is controlled by reality.
~vz

Edit... and if it doesn't dip that low... strap yourself in for a very rapid rise up.

 

[Overnight]

Edit... and if it doesn't dip that low... strap yourself in for a very rapid rise up.

That's what I have been saying about pot stocks, if only the Biden admin will move their ass on this and legalize it on federal level, to open them up to the US banking system! Ug.

 

[maxinger]

PANW
big picture - still uptrend

smaller picture - downforce momentum since 20 Feb 2024 is still quite strong.
short term, it is on the downtrend and zero indication that it is on the uptrend.

 

[PPC]

This will be a longer term swing trade, minimum 6 months. More of an allocation of capital. The core position are quarterly/yearly call options with sometimes/fraction of the core position shorter term call options sold.

Do what you like, it's your money, but consider the following (see the chart)