The gutfeel swing trade

[wxytrader]

No, long.
Outlook far longer(3M-12m), see posts before

Well other than a little pop, if you are looking for new ath's I would be prepared to wait months, maybe to the end of the year, even without a correction and it just followed the trendline.

The stock looks like it has had steady growth so that's good.

 

[PPC]

You are worried about too much sideways movement for a time, I understand. What would you consider a better (technical) setup?

What would worry me is that recently the stock gaped down overnight by around 25%. That’s a huge gap, and it is a sign of weakness. In addition, the stock will have to deal with supply (remaining sellers) on its way up.

Can the stock go into a parabolic rally? Of course it can, nobody knows what will happen. If the stock meets your own trading setup (backtested edge) that you’re familiar with, then it should be a valid signal for you.

I'm sharing a different perspective, everyone traders differently, so do not let me or anyone else to talk you into/out of your own trades.

Only trade the good setups that you’re familiar with, and don't force it if you don't clearly see the pattern that is not a part of your own edge.

Why is this chart getting a thumbs up when it is just a very rudimentary form of the chart I posted? He calls the chart "damaged" and I explain why it is a correction and not a pullback.

He incorrectly labels it a trading range when it is an ABC correction.

He gives no reason as to why buying here would be a melting ice cube.

Regarding your ABC, I think you're forcing (extremely subjective) Elliot Wave onto everything, and are seeing things that are not there.

Regarding my comment about buying calls (melting ice cubes), long calls would be a good choice providing that he’s going to be good with timing precision, the magnitude of the move up will be large and rapid, and when buying the calls the IV needs to be relatively cheap, and the expected IV should preferably be steady and raising.

If he doesn’t get those things above right then the long calls will most likely become melting ice cubes (losing value).

 

[wxytrader]

What would worry me is that recently the stock gaped down overnight by around 25%. That’s a huge gap, and it is a sign of weakness.

Regarding your ABC, I think you're forcing (extremely subjective) Elliot Wave onto everything, and are seeing things that are not there.

Regarding my comment about buying calls (melting ice cubes), long calls would be a good choice providing that he’s going to be good with timing precision, the magnitude of the move up will be large and rapid, and when buying the calls the IV needs to be relatively cheap, and the expected IV should preferably be steady and raising.

If he doesn’t get those things above right then the long calls will most likely become melting ice cubes (losing value).

No man, your chart is just plain wrong. People use trading ranges when they don't know how to chart. It's lazy.

(a) could be 4 but likely we are going to see sideways movement here...not just a "trading range" but measured moves. The red line is the invalidation level. This is the weekly so could be in for a long correction.

236 of Wave 1. Statistically, 73% of Wave 2's will retrace to at least .5 to .618 and 15% as far as 100% of W1.

To me this doesn't look typical....even though wave 2's can retrace 100% of wave 1's. I wouldn't even look at going long until I get more information.

 

[vanzandt]

Disclaimer: if you don’t want to get any dumber, stop reading now

Most of the times I’m a lurker trying to make a funny comment, but one sometimes one needs to go out and speak your thoughts and be critisized: I’m going to allocate a significant amount of money in this idea (or brainfart). I also need to provide entertainment to the smarter people to give them the incentive to stay here. Win-win, so to speak

So once in a while you read someting and decide to allocate more money to a particular idea because it speaks to you, or makes more sense than other ideas (and you like losing money). I s*ck extremely in short term directional trading, but with the macro themes I have done a little bit better in the past. It is basically based on "looking around" and try to get a sense of macro-/political factors and possible upcoming themes. For me it is mostly based on taking a quick look at ft.com (titles only) and as months and years pass, you think you can see some upcoming patterns. This time it was with possible upcomming cyber defense due to modern ways of warfare, not just economical, but also possible attacks on the “internet-structure” so to speak. And global tensions seem to pick up.

Then a few weeks later- or about the same time, @vanzandt starts to say the same things. To summarize, my rationale to go into PANW looks like:

- own gutfeel this could be a sector which is going to be more in demand then others
- @ vanzandt says so
- Pelosi says so (albeit bought unluckily a few days before the drop)
- PANW held up pretty well during the selloff

Another summary would be: this is the worst analysis I've ever read to base ones decision on

If you’re still reading, read on. It will get worser.

Here is the "chart". Now you see: “That’s a squiggly line b*tch!”
View attachment 338652
The lines are just a quick reference for a future expected price path. The lines “work”, you can easily see that because every stock ever issued is always moving in one simple channel since it’s inception. And so, PANW will listen and move up soon. Just logical thinking.

This will be a longer term swing trade, minimum 6 months. More of an allocation of capital. The core position are quarterly/yearly call options with sometimes/fraction of the core position shorter term call options sold.

$292.50 Up $11
Great play Zwaen

 

[Zwaen]

$292.50 Up $11
Great play Zwaen

Thanks, but no honors
1) I needed ‘confirmation’ of a certain savant
2) The call is/was for an extended trend, so in 6-12m it should have outperformed qqq. Today is nice but a blip and it could go anywhere *

*I know you ofcourse know this

 

[vanzandt]

2) The call is/was for an extended trend, so in 6-12m it should have outperformed qqq. Today is nice but a blip and it could go anywhere *

Anywhere but down. The sellers are gone. These chart readers lack common sense. And they certainly lack a pencil. Blue skies ahead.

 

[stepandfetchit]

Disclaimer: If you enter this trade (see below) and loose money, shame on you! -- You should "own" your own trades.
More babble: IFF one expects PANW to reach a new high in 6 months, the following option position could be appropriate for someone (not me as I have no reliable crystal ball).
Beware, just took this after hours, so prices may not be correct. Risk is less than owning outright, and the position can be done for credit, making use of unutilized margin. IFF you are correct, the payout should be better than a simple long position.
An example entry order from TOS.

BUY +<n> 2/-1/1 CUSTOM PANW 100 15 NOV 24/15 NOV 24/15 NOV 24 350/350/290 CALL/PUT/PUT @-2.55 LMT MARK

 

[wxytrader]

iFF one expects PANW to reach a new high in 6 months, the following...

Thanks, but no honors
1) I needed ‘confirmation’ of a certain savant
2) The call is/was for an extended trend, so in 6-12m it should have outperformed qqq. Today is nice but a blip and it could go anywhere *

*I know you ofcourse know this

On what planet is the TA telling you that this will be hitting aths in 6 months?

BUY +<n> 2/-1/1 CUSTOM PANW 100 15 NOV 24/15 NOV 24/15 NOV 24 350/350/290 CALL/PUT/PUT @-2.55 LMT MARK

English plz

 

[stepandfetchit]

On what planet is the TA telling you that this will be hitting aths in 6 months?




English plz

FYI: IFF -> IF and only iF!

Pic of risk profile of the option position for a 1-lot. November expiry, using 350 strike for synthetic long and extra long call, 290 PUT strike for downside risk limit.

 

[wxytrader]

FYI: IFF -> IF and only iF!

Pic of risk profile of the option position for a 1-lot. November expiry, using 350 strike for synthetic long and extra long call, 290 PUT strike for downside risk limit.
View attachment 339119

If you're long two calls, at the same strike that your short one put then why not just be long one call?

Disclaimer: If you enter this trade (see below) and loose money, shame on you! -- You should "own" your own trades.
More babble: IFF one expects PANW to reach a new high in 6 months, the following option position could be appropriate for someone (not me as I have no reliable crystal ball).
Beware, just took this after hours, so prices may not be correct. Risk is less than owning outright, and the position can be done for credit, making use of unutilized margin. IFF you are correct, the payout should be better than a simple long position.
An example entry order from TOS.

BUY +<n> 2/-1/1 CUSTOM PANW 100 15 NOV 24/15 NOV 24/15 NOV 24 350/350/290 CALL/PUT/PUT @-2.55 LMT MARK

But you are selling a deep in the money put which could be exercised at any time.