The Foresight Thread

[wrbtrader]

Kp,

I just read his chart analysis before your comment. He did not make any claims nor imply he traded this particular price action. In contrast, he was very clear to why he posted the chart because nobody recently has commented about the longer time frame (his recommended time frame). Thus, he posted that smaller time frame chart for those that may be interested in such considering they "may not" be following his recommended longer time frame.

I only say the above because you have commented (the way you phrase your words) with the you did this via statements like "you take them" and "you claim" as if he's taken trades via the smaller time frame chart in the price action that he was pointing out to others to review.

By the way, as I recommended to you in your trade journal...you really should move on to something else that will be useful for you. This stuff is really not for you or you can use any of those hundreds of other resources I recommended to you about Wyckoff/AMT/Trendlines because maybe those translators you may understand them. Also, one of them may be willing to work with you. Think about my recommendation carefully...same method...different translator if you have a sincere interest in learning this stuff that's been around long before Dbphoenix was born.

I think that's more positive for you in comparison to you hanging around here with those "not willing" to work with you. Seriously, re-read my prior messages to you in your own journal involving the college class analogy...you're stuck and the longer you stay there...the more it seems like its a place where you want to be.

P.S. He's sharing the ANALYSIS for understanding the price action. The TRADE SIGNAL aspect is your responsibility (this is where you're stuck at). Simply, traders using the same analysis...some will trade the breakout because of their trade signal strategy dictates such while others will not because they're using a different trade signal strategy.

 

[k p]

The biggest problem with the stuff you show is that there is no consistency, and this is what a new trader sorely needs. What you show today on the 1 min chart, and the way you show it, will not be drawn exactly the same way tomorrow or the day after. What you choose to highlight as important today, might not be so tomorrow. You might be experienced enough to somehow forecast this in advance, but to a new trader who hasn't developed this "feel", it looks a bit random.

 

[dbphoenix]

 

[k p]

I just read his chart analysis before your comment. He did not make any claims nor imply he traded this particular price action. In contrast, he was very clear to why he posted the chart because nobody recently has commented about the longer time frame (his recommended time frame).

Yes, I for sure agree that he isn't saying he traded this. But my point is, he is clearly showing where trades can be taken. If he doesn't taken them, and yet shows they can be taken, this is even worse. Why show a trade that can be taken if you aren't going to put up your own money on it?

The biggest problem is that his rationale just doesn't add up and I would love for him to address this, which I know he clearly won't because he doesn't reply to me. But I think its important for new traders to see that on just that one chart, he is taking a very early short at what could be a failed BO, but he doesn't show this same thing down below where there was a very clear failed BO as well. If its not hindsight bias, then perhaps he can explain. A new guy might not see that in real time, much more sets up than Db shows, and ultimately, he only shows the stuff that works, not the stuff that doesn't, and this isn't trading. How can you only show what works? As a trader, your job is to take each opportunity as it comes. You can only cherry pick in hindsight.

By the way, as I recommended to you in your trade journal...you really should move on to something else that will be useful for you.

I think the trading ranges and BO's part that Db shows is really quite good actually, and I have always said that his understanding of the market and his explanations are superb. But trading this in real time is where he clearly needs to set up his game a bit. I continue to post this because I think its important for this to be pointed out.

Perhaps he will also be inspired one day to get a bit more specific with how he thinks a BO or a failed BO should be traded, so why not keep challenging him to see if he is inspired to be more specific.

And if I'm wrong, if there is something different about these two breakouts, wouldn't it be great to have a discussion about this and hence everyone could learn from this?

 

[k p]

P.S. He's sharing the ANALYSIS for understanding the price action. The TRADE SIGNAL aspect is your responsibility

This is actually where I think you're wrong. He is clearly showing entries and exits. Some entries are based on RETs, some are based on just buying above or below bars, whatever seems to work that day. Sometimes the lines are fanned a little bit to include another swing point, sometimes they are kept tight so they break and the opposite trade can be taken for the ride back up.

EDIT: He doesn't actually show exits.. which is even worse... LOL... that he leaves up to the trader. But he is showing entries, multiple entries for when trades work.

 

[k p]

And one more chart before I go!

 

[wrbtrader]

This is actually where I think you're wrong. He is clearly showing entries and exits. Some entries are based on RETs, some are based on just buying above or below bars, whatever seems to work that day. Sometimes the lines are fanned a little bit to include another swing point, sometimes they are kept tight so they break and the opposite trade can be taken for the ride back up.

EDIT: He doesn't actually show exits.. which is even worse... LOL... that he leaves up to the trader. But he is showing entries, multiple entries for when trades work.

Just because he show entries and exits on a chart doesn't imply he should explain to you the specific rules of his trade signal strategies (he could be using more than one trade signal strategy...I know I do). Yet, that still does not excuse you from using your own trade signal strategy just because you saw trade entry words on a chart...the trade signal strategy is your responsibility if he's not willing to share his trade signal rules with you. Thus, maybe he doesn't want to spoon feed traders any further and want folks to finish that puzzle on their own. Then again, I'm just guessing, maybe he was prepare to share the trade signal rules but the bashing started and he decided to not share it...something serious to think about.

As a reminder, he's sharing the analysis with you and that's more than what most have done here at Elitetrader...the trade signal rules for entry and exit is clearly your responsibility regardless if he post entries and exits on his charts. Its very common for traders not to share trade signal rules while sharing their analysis that got them to the point where one would need to make a decision about a trade.

By the way, if you knew how to view all the charts posted today at EliteTrader.com, will you assume that every chart posted must have been traded by the poster in light of your commentary that implied one shouldn't post a chart if one is not trading that price action ?

At another forum for Eurex futures traders...I posted a chart of the CAC40 futures. I didn't trade it...I was trading Emini ES futures today. I posted that chart because I saw something that I felt like sharing and thought it may be useful to someone even though I know it won't be useful to someone else.

...Perhaps he will also be inspired one day to get a bit more specific with how he thinks a BO or a failed BO should be traded, so why not keep challenging him to see if he is inspired to be more specific.

And if I'm wrong, if there is something different about these two breakouts, wouldn't it be great to have a discussion about this and hence everyone could learn from this?

I can't speak for Dbphoenix himself but I think its human nature not to help someone that's already on record in making negative commentary about the person. Simply, if I choose to explain the difference between the two breakouts...it would not be with you. Maybe its me but I can understand if someone is not willing to help/share with you more information while you're on record for bashing the method, bashing personally (yeah, you've done that too) and then oddly make a comment once in awhile as if you're interested in learning.

Seriously, this isn't high school where you can stab someone in the back and then the next day expect them to invite you to their party. If you want someone to share with you everything you should know about trading...you ain't gonna find it here at ET especially with your attitude. Therefore, it truly is your responsibility to piece everything together on your own and I don't think you will find it all at one forum. Lots of sources out there from others about Wyckoff/AMT/Trendlines that may give you what you're not willing to do for yourself.

 

[k p]

Just because he show entries and exits on a chart doesn't imply you know the rules of the trade signal strategy.

The rules of SLA are very simple. 1 point entries above or below the RET. It seems for reversals, its above or below the line that rejects the levels.

I have to be firm here. I know you're a good guy wrbtrader, but I'm simply not letting this go easily because its pivotal. If Db is going to show entries on a chart, he has to be consistent with how these trades are supposedly taken or else there is no value here. He keeps pushing about saying how SLA and AMT dictate the trades in advance and uses this as an argugment against B1S2. So if he is going to take a short below the bar of any bar that bounces off a key level he has outlines, he has to take this same short over and over again. And by take, I mean mark it on his chart.

Furthermore, if he is showing SLA, he has to wait for his line to break before taking a short. Its simply a matter of following rules.

Do you not suggest a trader has rules? Do you not suggest rules always have to be followed?

If Db is going to take some trades based on SLA, waiting for a line to break and then taking the RET if it presents itself, but he will also takes REV trades from key levels that REJ a price, this is fine, and its great to have two different ways to enter a trade. But he has to do this consistently. Far too often I also see his lines, had be actually drawn them in real time by connecting swing point would have broken, and a trade in the opposite direction would have set up and triggered, but it would fail, and the original direction would continue to allow him to fan the DL or SL. But in real time, you wouldn't know this, your line would break, you'd have to take the opposite trade, etc. Only in hindsight does he know to keep holding the trade and wait for a lower swing point to fan the line.

Db is not showing consistency.

I can't speak for Dbphoenix himself but I think its human nature not to help someone that's already on record in making negative commentary about the person.

Agreed. I know I won't get an answer, nor am I looking for help. I'm pointing out the inconsistency for anyone else who is following along to see with their own eyes. These hindsight charts show what looks to be expert trading, but all they actually do is prevent one from seeing all the stuff on the chart that in real time would make a trader trade differently if following the exact rules he prescribes.

Seriously, this isn't high school where you can stab someone in the back and then the next day expect them to invite you to their party. If you want someone to share with you everything you should know about trading...you ain't gonna find it here at ET. Instead, its your responsibility to piece everything together on your own and I don't think you will find it all at one forum. Lots of sources out there from others about Wyckoff/AMT/Trendlines that may give you what you're not willing to do for yourself.

You keep jumping on me and I'm not sure why. I have said that I'm not looking for anything from Db specifically. Why cannot I not show how there is inconsistency with how Db draws up his charts?

You're a successful trader.. correct? Would you not say following rules is paramount? Would you not say that I am correct to point out that on these recent charts, that there are things shown that are contradictory? I know that you're saying that each person has their own trigger to enter a trade, but what is shown here is pretty obvious. Can you explain why that resistance line at 4378 is suddenly cut off prematurely? Can you explain why a short below that bar that goes above the line but drops below isn't taken, even though this is the same setup used higher at 4396?

If you say none of these questions matter, then all you're simply doing is preventing struggling traders from learning the importance of following rules. Rules is what make a trading plan, and a trading plan is what you need to trade successfully.

 

[wrbtrader]

The rules of SLA are very simple. 1 point entries above or below the RET. It seems for reversals, its above or below the line that rejects the levels.

My apologies. I thought you were stating you did not know why he would trade something and not trade the same the next day as if you did not know his trade signal rules. Therefore, my statement earlier had involved him not willing to share his trade signal rules with you but in reality via your latest commentary...you've stated that you do know the specific details of his trade signal rules. Now going forward (pun intended), if there's something you're missing that maybe he did share...you need to face the reality that he's not going to rehash it again with you because it may be there in one of the documents for you to read or he openly discussed such in another thread. Simply, he's not going to point it out to you again because of your posting habits towards him.

...If Db is going to show entries on a chart, he has to be consistent with how these trades are supposedly taken or else there is no value here. He keeps pushing about saying how SLA and AMT dictate the trades in advance and uses this as an argugment against B1S2. So if he is going to take a short below the bar of any bar that bounces off a key level he has outlines, he has to take this same short over and over again. And by take, I mean mark it on his chart...

My point is this. Anyone that post charts with entires, exits or both...they aren't required to explain such to you or anyone else. In fact, I've seen others that do the same that you openly communicate here with at ET and I do not see you barking up their tree about the same thing. That is the only reason why I'll continue to state that this entire thing has become too personal for you involving your attitude towards Dbphoenix when others that do the same via the fact their trade method.

Don't even mention the crap about B1S2. He purposely started a thread to bash the method (admitted such) and then used a trailer park trash behavior via pulling charts of others from their threads to bash the method via charts posted by newbies or those new to the method...trailer park tactic. Later he preach transparency while in the past few years and recently has not acknowledge specific losing trades and then posting his profitable exits of other trades. Seriously, I've watched that guy for several years now...if he doesn't post the exit of a losing trade...folks let it slide and don't even mention it. Yet, when he post a profitable exit...they compliment him for such without mentioning the losing trade that was not posted. Now that B1S2 started the crap with Dbphoenix...it has open a can of worms about those losing trade positions.

For the record, I have no knowledge of Dbphoenix specific trade signal rules nor do I need them to apply Wyckoff/AMT/Trendline Analysis. I'm extremely familiar with Wyckoff and AMT. Learned it long before there was a forum called Elitetrader.com, learned it long before there was a Google, Youtube, Twitter and Facebook. Also, I'm privilege enough to see a few traders use such in live trading competitions...audited competitions.

With that said, I really am not going to debate with you about Dbphoenix trade signal rules considering I don't know his trade signal rules. However, I've been around the block a few times to know that two traders using the same analysis can be using different trade signal strategies because it suits their trading style. Thus, you'll have to take your debate about the trade signal rules with him and so far it doesn't look like he's willing to discuss such with you based upon your posting history.

Last of all, I have never seen a discretionary trader be completely 100% consistent in their trading and application of their trade method no matter how much trade experience they have although in theory we all should be. Thus, if I see someone post 100 charts with a few that doesn't correlate...so what...big deal...get over it. Yet, if there truly was an error on the chart, hopefully the trader will catch it and explain the error or someone he's communicating with is able to catch the error. Unfortunately in your case, there's no dialogue between you an Dbphoenix because of your negative comments posting history. Simply, if there really is inconsistent charts that had been posted and these charts are confusing or contradiction to something you know about his trade signal rules...you obviously need clarification from him (not me) but you'll never get clarification in any conversation with him directly...you've killed that possibility.

Think about this carefully, everybody isn't like NoDoji...I've seen folks degrade her, bash her, make threats, joke about rape, joke about her looks and yet she still returns to this place to explain her analysis and trade signals. Most folks isn't like that and they at some point stop sharing completely or refuse to share something that may be needed by you nor should they be require to do such for you or anyone else.

That's my point, you need clarification but you've ruin the possibility of getting such. Nobody is required to explain anything to you. You truly are on your own with Wyckoff/AMT/SLA. That's your fault.

P.S. I'll now stop commenting and will let Dbphoenix get his thread back on top about Foresight. Yet, you need to understand why you won't get answers...your posting history.

 

[bh_prop]

KP's questions were fair; I personally don't think he was attacking DB, he is simply asking "why identify a trade opportunity here but not there" when to his eyes price is reacting from a key level in both cases. And I suspect KP is looking for a real answer. The obvious answer = "hindsight", but if that is not the case then please elaborate.