The Foresight Thread
- Thread starter dbphoenix
- Start date
But this is the thing. He is trying to teach a method. He isn't showing what he would actually do or did. I wouldn't ask someone to justify a trade they took if they just said it felt right to them. But these are potential trades marked on a chart that would fulfill the rules of the method he is trying to teach. So either there is another subset of rules that state when not to take these trades, or they are simply cherry picked after the result is known.
Fair enough. But if you do back up far enough, there was another day where someone had pressed Db about if he took a trade or not where he said he did, and then he backed down. In essence, we have both B1S2 and Db showing highly incomplete systems. Db's system is at least a little more complete as I have no idea what B1 does, and he has plenty for rule for why to even skip certain trades where the indicators say to take a trade, etc, so as an observer, its funny to me because its a case of "the pot calling the kettle black", no matter how you look at it.
Sweet. This is the part where Db shines. But SLA boxes him into simply trading patterns, and as a result, there are trades he wants to skip because he knows they won't work, but based on SLA they have to be taken, so in a way, I think he is really tripping himself up. I have always said that it is my opinion that he wants to teach Wyckoff, AMT, behavior, but instead tries to distill it down to simple rules which actually don't benefit the beginner all that much given that he doesn't follow his own rules based on how he marks up his charts.
SLA isn't analysis. Its a set of rules, so its not that hard to follow. The trades he showed, the short off 4396 isn't even an SLA trade if you ask me since no line was broken. If anything, you could maybe put this into the AMT category, since its a trade based on a rejection of a range extreme. But there are no AMT rules per say. All he ever says it to trade the BO, go long above, short below. If anything, AMT and SLA in some ways contradict.... so there has to be way to justify this, but there isn't. The answer of course is something like "trader's choice", or "more backtesting". Which is fine, but once again, if you're gonna show something on a chart, there should be a rule for it.
NoDoji would beat you up for this! LOL... RN I think would also say that if you slip up once, what's to say you won't slip up again. If you slip up, and it works out, it gives you permission to slip up again and again, doing more damage perhaps. Point is that rules should never be broken, unless you have a rule about breaking the rule.
In my opinion, my attacks have never been personal, and I've never called him names. But lets also not forget that perhaps the reason I'm not getting an answer isn't because of me, but because the answer cannot be given. I do believe that Db trades, and I do believe he does well. But what he shows, which he thinks is designed to help the beginner, is actually accomplishing the opposite goal. Its one thing to understand a market, another thing to trade it in real time. He is trying to make the "trading it in real time" a simple proposition, which it is not. He is trying to distill it down to simple rules, but these don't work often enough for a new trader to find consistency early on.
I have already taken myself out of the equation. I don't need anything. I'm here simply to share my viewpoint.
In conclusion, I do love your posts wrbtrader. You make excellent points that are well argued, and although I don't agree with some of it, its a pleasure to get the chance to reply to you because you present a logical thought process that I can understand and that leads to a civil discussion.
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So eloquently put in only two lines and captures exactly what I'm getting at. Thanks bh.
One day, Schultz positioned Julio on a chair in a dimly lit room and turned on a computer monitor. Julio’s job was to touch a lever whenever colored shapes—small yellow spirals, red squiggles, blue lines—appeared on the screen. If Julio touched the lever when a shape appeared, a drop of blackberry juice would run down a tube hanging from the ceiling and onto the monkey’s lips. Julio liked blackberry juice.
At first, Julio was only mildly interested in what was happening on the screen. He spent most of his time trying to squirm out of the chair. But once the first dose of juice arrived, Julio became very focused on the monitor. As the monkey came to understand, through dozens of repetitions, that the shapes on the screen were a cue for a routine (touch the lever) that resulted in a reward (blackberry juice), he started staring at the screen with a laser-like intensity. He didn’t squirm. When a yellow squiggle appeared, he went for the lever. When a blue line flashed, he pounced. And when the juice arrived, Julio would lick his lips contentedly.
JULIO’S REWARD RESPONSE WHEN HE RECEIVES THE JUICE
As Schultz monitored the activity within Julio’s brain, he saw a pattern emerge. Whenever Julio received his reward, his brain activity would spike in a manner that suggested he was experiencing happiness. A transcript of that neurological activity shows what it looks like when a monkey’s brain says, in essence, “I got a reward!”
Schultz took Julio through the same experiment again and again, recording the neurological response each time. Whenever Julio received his juice, the “I got a reward!” pattern appeared on the computer attached to the probe in the monkey’s head. Gradually, from a neurological perspective, Julio’s behavior became a habit.
JULIO’S HABIT LOOP
What was most interesting to Schultz, however, was how things changed as the experiment proceeded. As the monkey became more and more practiced at the behavior—as the habit became stronger and stronger—Julio’s brain began anticipating the blackberry juice. Schultz’s
probes started recording the “I got a reward!” pattern the instant Julio saw the shapes on the screen, before the juice arrived:
NOW, JULIO’S REWARD RESPONSE OCCURS BEFORE THE JUICE ARRIVES
In other words, the shapes on the monitor had become a cue not just for pulling a lever, but also for a pleasure response inside the monkey’s brain. Julio started expecting his reward as soon as he saw the yellow spirals and red squiggles.
Then Schultz adjusted the experiment. Previously, Julio had received juice as soon as he touched the lever. Now, sometimes, the juice didn’t arrive at all, even if Julio performed correctly. Or it would arrive after a slight delay. Or it would be watered down until it was only half as sweet. When the juice didn’t arrive or was late or diluted, Julio would get angry and make unhappy noises, or become mopey. And within Julio’s brain, Schultz watched a new pattern emerge: craving. When Julio anticipated juice but didn’t receive it, a neurological pattern associated with desire and frustration erupted inside his skull. When Julio saw the cue, he started anticipating a juice-fueled joy. But if the juice didn’t arrive, that joy became a craving that, if unsatisfied, drove Julio to anger or depression. Researchers in other labs have found similar patterns. Other monkeys were trained to anticipate juice whenever they saw a shape on a screen.
Then, researchers tried to distract them. They opened the lab’s door, so the monkeys could go outside and play with their friends. They put food in a corner, so the monkeys could eat if they abandoned the experiment. For those monkeys who hadn’t developed a strong habit, the distractions worked. They slid out of their chairs, left the room, and never looked back. They hadn’t learned to crave the juice. However, once a monkey had developed a habit—once its brain anticipated the reward—the distractions held no allure. The animal would sit there, watching the monitor and pressing the lever, over and over again, regardless of the offer of food or the opportunity to go outside. The anticipation and sense of craving was so overwhelming that the monkeys stayed glued to their screens, the same way a gambler will play slots long after he’s lost his winnings, or a person will continue engaging the same person for answers who has him on ignore.
- The Power of Habit
At first, Julio was only mildly interested in what was happening on the screen. He spent most of his time trying to squirm out of the chair. But once the first dose of juice arrived, Julio became very focused on the monitor. As the monkey came to understand, through dozens of repetitions, that the shapes on the screen were a cue for a routine (touch the lever) that resulted in a reward (blackberry juice), he started staring at the screen with a laser-like intensity. He didn’t squirm. When a yellow squiggle appeared, he went for the lever. When a blue line flashed, he pounced. And when the juice arrived, Julio would lick his lips contentedly.
JULIO’S REWARD RESPONSE WHEN HE RECEIVES THE JUICE
As Schultz monitored the activity within Julio’s brain, he saw a pattern emerge. Whenever Julio received his reward, his brain activity would spike in a manner that suggested he was experiencing happiness. A transcript of that neurological activity shows what it looks like when a monkey’s brain says, in essence, “I got a reward!”
Schultz took Julio through the same experiment again and again, recording the neurological response each time. Whenever Julio received his juice, the “I got a reward!” pattern appeared on the computer attached to the probe in the monkey’s head. Gradually, from a neurological perspective, Julio’s behavior became a habit.
JULIO’S HABIT LOOP
What was most interesting to Schultz, however, was how things changed as the experiment proceeded. As the monkey became more and more practiced at the behavior—as the habit became stronger and stronger—Julio’s brain began anticipating the blackberry juice. Schultz’s
probes started recording the “I got a reward!” pattern the instant Julio saw the shapes on the screen, before the juice arrived:
NOW, JULIO’S REWARD RESPONSE OCCURS BEFORE THE JUICE ARRIVES
In other words, the shapes on the monitor had become a cue not just for pulling a lever, but also for a pleasure response inside the monkey’s brain. Julio started expecting his reward as soon as he saw the yellow spirals and red squiggles.
Then Schultz adjusted the experiment. Previously, Julio had received juice as soon as he touched the lever. Now, sometimes, the juice didn’t arrive at all, even if Julio performed correctly. Or it would arrive after a slight delay. Or it would be watered down until it was only half as sweet. When the juice didn’t arrive or was late or diluted, Julio would get angry and make unhappy noises, or become mopey. And within Julio’s brain, Schultz watched a new pattern emerge: craving. When Julio anticipated juice but didn’t receive it, a neurological pattern associated with desire and frustration erupted inside his skull. When Julio saw the cue, he started anticipating a juice-fueled joy. But if the juice didn’t arrive, that joy became a craving that, if unsatisfied, drove Julio to anger or depression. Researchers in other labs have found similar patterns. Other monkeys were trained to anticipate juice whenever they saw a shape on a screen.
Then, researchers tried to distract them. They opened the lab’s door, so the monkeys could go outside and play with their friends. They put food in a corner, so the monkeys could eat if they abandoned the experiment. For those monkeys who hadn’t developed a strong habit, the distractions worked. They slid out of their chairs, left the room, and never looked back. They hadn’t learned to crave the juice. However, once a monkey had developed a habit—once its brain anticipated the reward—the distractions held no allure. The animal would sit there, watching the monitor and pressing the lever, over and over again, regardless of the offer of food or the opportunity to go outside. The anticipation and sense of craving was so overwhelming that the monkeys stayed glued to their screens, the same way a gambler will play slots long after he’s lost his winnings, or a person will continue engaging the same person for answers who has him on ignore.
- The Power of Habit
LOL... Wow... is this entire quote from "The Power of Habit"? Did the author have the foresight to know that adding this bit on the end will be used brilliantly one day in the future against a trader on a trading forum?
The really funny thing is that I have already shown that I'm not on ignore. Just the other day, Db used one of my charts that I posted to draw ranges on. If I was on ignore, he would not have been able to see my chart and use it.
I do like you Gringo, but if your only answer to my very legitimate question about why some reversal trades after a BO are taken and others aren't is actually a non answer by way of posting some lovely experiment designed to distract, then you must assume that I'm just a monkey who will be easily distracted. I know Db often uses these lovely analogies as excuses to not answer a question, and I don't even care if he replies to me or not, but unless anyone can show why my question isn't legitimate based on the rules, then you're just jumping on the obfuscation bandwagon.
His "crib notes" that he posted actually allow for longs and shorts all over the place. Its only by way of hindsight that he is able to leave the trades that work on his charts. Wouldn't it be great if at the end of the day I could just tell my broker to remove the trades from the trades summary that didn't work and pay me for the ones that led to a profit without deducting my losing trades?
There is also an impressive and growing body of evidence demonstrating that your system is incomplete, unverifiable and with a severe lack of live calls.
-- Me
KP,
There are worlds beyond one star
And many a test beyond one scar
Waste not life on a fruitless battle
Focus the mind to win the war
Gringo
p.s. How many others have written quatrains for you before? I must have cared somewhat to devote precious moments of my life sending you a sweet message. Now let it go. Stay away from Db and resist the urge to waste time around him. You have your own journal that can help you become successful. Don't find artificial reasons and battles to keep you from doing the real work. Countless traders have tried to show you the path. Now you must choose to walk it or continue chasing the shadows year after year.
There are worlds beyond one star
And many a test beyond one scar
Waste not life on a fruitless battle
Focus the mind to win the war
Gringo
p.s. How many others have written quatrains for you before? I must have cared somewhat to devote precious moments of my life sending you a sweet message. Now let it go. Stay away from Db and resist the urge to waste time around him. You have your own journal that can help you become successful. Don't find artificial reasons and battles to keep you from doing the real work. Countless traders have tried to show you the path. Now you must choose to walk it or continue chasing the shadows year after year.
That's why I said in my last post that I like you!
The shitty thing Gringo is that I really like much of what Db says. He's kind of like that hot girl at work that you know will never give you the time of day, but you can't help but always try one more time if given the chance to chat her up. LOL.... Not that I'm trying to pick Db up, and he clearly isn't replying to me, but I think its a shame that he doesn't expand on some of these things that I think warrant explanation.
I'm chasing the shadows of the big money that is leaving trails of what they intend to do and where they intend to push price.
Following their shadows is I think a smart move.