The Foresight Thread

Laissez Faire said:
Yes, but you being gullible is more likely a fact than my opinion. :)

Your guru has called for the great short now. On the other hand he says the market may very well rally hundreds of points from here.

Which of his signals are you going to take? :D
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I don't recall Richard Wyckoff saying that, but okay. I hope you feel better having told me how you feel. No need to tell me anymore.
 
dbphoenix said:
Just calling attention to the current behavior of price. No predictions. I don't predict.
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You called attention to a recent call of a market drop both in this thread and another thread? Wasn't that a prediction?

I didn't see it as one, although you and your neophytes seemed to claim it was one AFTER price had dropped. :)
 
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Ghost_of_Blotto said:
The vast majority of my trading is in the shorter timescales e.g. 5-20 ticks with market exposure of a few minutes at a time, rarely tens of minutes.

However there are locations where it is clear a larger move is likely to take place. When this move is underway, it is likely to continue as people positioned opposite are forced to close and the degree of movement encourages new participants in the same direction. So one still uses the same precise entry as for short term target trading but benefits from a larger move when the market makes it available.

(these are also the places where one can trade sizes far larger than what is possible with short term target trading for a few ticks profit - so necessary knowledge for traders who want to grow. And where momentum ignition strategies are likely to work well. nokomisjeff has written here and elsewhere on the importance of accurately estimating how much of a particular commodity will be for sale at a given time... But I'll leave DB to explain the rest....)

There was an interesting poster here who goes by PitchBlack who talked about capturing these sorts of moves rather than just taking small scalps...points in the market where you could build a position and then sit with it for a few hours. More detail given than I've seen anywhere else in public. Might be of interest to some here.

In fact, as an alternative to the DB route I've found the following posters here to be good resources on what actually works:
PitchBlack
garachen
rallymode
sellindexvol666
nokomisjeff
I'll add Rearden Metal although he doesn't go into details about his strategy he has made several decent calls and has written enough about what not to do to be helpful to an aspiring trader.

I do appreciate that successful market participants are magnanimous enough to share their hard earned knowledge and expertise as there is far too much drivel written here.

Good luck!
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Ghost_of_Blotto,

You mention in your post;

"there are locations where it is clear a larger move is likely to take place."

and

"these are also the places where one can trade sizes far larger than what is possible with short term target trading for a few ticks profit"

Would I be correct in saying that these are areas where there exists a hidden supply of liquidity? Areas where should price arrive there liquidity off the books is likely to come into play due to the possibility of trading large sizes with little slippage?

If I may quote another post;

"The reaction in this area would tell me whether it is worth to establish a short"

By reading the reaction I can only assume that as we know what kind of orders the off book hidden liquidity are going to use, that you are by monitoring reactions looking to see if larger players are filling up limit orders in attempt to establish a position or playing for momentum ignition?
 
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