The Experts, Media and Covid Doomsayers were wrong about Florida

[gwb-trading]

I agree. Just my opinion, I don't think it has anything to do with warm weather as much as it does with the virus just not being as bad as everyone thought it would be. I think New York is a specific case based on the nursing home issue and the demographics, along with the travel to and from the rest of the world.

Under 20% percentage of the overall COVID-19 deaths in NY are from nursing homes.

The total COVID-19 deaths in New York are above 24,788. The following report from the State of New York lists out all the deaths in nursing homes and care facilities as of May 3rd. The total confirmed and presumed deaths is 4,953 in this total. However New York is reporting the number of 4,813 for nursing homes today (probably leaving out care facilities)

https://www.health.ny.gov/statistics/diseases/covid-19/fatalities_nursing_home_acf.pdf

 

[Snarkhund]

Maybe you are, but I'm not. I live in Quebec, and am royally pissed at the absurdity of Canada's worst affected province being the most aggressive at reopening. That is some kind of stupid!

Its being done backwards on the US West coast too.

California has 56,000+ confirmed cases and is starting to reeopen. Oregon, an adjacent state, has 2500+ confirmed cases and remains tightly locked down. They did a good job in Oregon.

 

[Snarkhund]

CA only has... 2254 deaths... Very Very low for our population in my opinion.
And 55,000 confirmed cases.

CA should should never have closed for low risk groups.
And many CA realy despise Newsome right now.
Social media is lit up. Now it may be a minority of people but as I said we are a outdoor culture and he got massive pushback on beach closures in So CA... and had to back down.

Yes, I went to confirm and reposted. They have 56,000+ cases. Oregon has 2500+.

My point, before I botched it, was that the reopening is happening sort of backwards in my view.

 

[Bugenhagen]

Oh look, the resident google image poster. Do you ever have anything useful to say? Weren't you taking a break from ET to read your nursery books?

I stayed up late two nights. Not your kind of nursery books with pictures of distressed little kids in them though Daxy.

 

[Frederick Foresight]

I would have used the dimmer switch approach rather than the instant off given the original data was so incomplete.

I guess that's where I disagree. Because so little was known, and what was known was quite ominous, I think the prudent thing to do was to exercise extreme caution. It's a lot easier to correct course from that approach if it happens to be the wrong one. As opposed to, "Oh, well, we're all dead."

If you will forgive me, in trading parlance, when you encounter extreme and unknown conditions, that is hardly the time to think about scaling out. Unless, of course, you're just trading with money you're perfectly prepared to lose in the hopes of hitting the lottery. Well, most thinking people do not regard their health and their lives as that kind of money.

 

[Frederick Foresight]

My point, before I botched it, was that the reopening is happening sort of backwards in my view.

It certainly appears that way.

 

[CaptainObvious]

I guess that's where I disagree. Because so little was known, and what was known was quite ominous, I think the prudent thing to do was to exercise extreme caution. It's a lot easier to correct course from that approach if it happens to be the wrong one. As opposed to, "Oh, well, we're all dead."

If you will forgive me, in trading parlance, when you encounter extreme and unknown conditions, that is hardly the time to think about scaling out. Unless, of course, you're just trading with money you're perfectly prepared to lose in the hopes of hitting the lottery. Well, most thinking people do not regard their health and their lives as that kind of money.

You make good points but this is where things get more nuanced. Yes, what was known at the time was ominous but just how ominous and to whom was yet unknown. To use your trading analogy, if I have taken too large a position for my piker account and things go squirrelly what happens? Panic and I bail out. But if my position is right sized for my account and risk profile, then I can take a breath and wait awhile to see how it turns out. That may in fact cost me money, but it doesn't crush me. Evidently the powers that be were in the we're all dead state of mind if this goes south,and I ask, based on what? In no way was any reasonable projection predicting our entire population was about to be wiped out, yet like the over leveraged over extended trader they bailed out as if everything was on the line. It wasn't.

 

[RRY16]

CA only has... 2254 deaths...
And 55,000 confirmed cases.

San Diego only has 144 deaths
Orange County 57.


https://www.google.com/search?q=how...69i57j69i64.5231j0j7&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8


40 million plus probably at least 10 million more illegals.

CA should should never have closed for low risk groups.


And many in CA really despise Gov. Newsome right now.
Social media is lit up. Now it may be a minority of people but as I said we are a outdoor culture and he got massive pushback on beach closures in So CA... and had to back down.

The people that live in the beach towns don’t want the crowds coming from the east and running roughshod. Huntington Beach is the exception, they enjoy the trash from Riverside County. Beaches are only open for walking and surfing, all parking lots closed.

 

[Frederick Foresight]

To use your trading analogy, if I have taken too large a position for my piker account and things go squirrelly what happens? Panic and I bail out. But if my position is right sized for my account and risk profile, then I can take a breath and wait awhile to see how it turns out. That may in fact cost me money, but it doesn't crush me.

Where health and life are concerned, I would regard that as all-in money. How do you "right-size" that?

Evidently the powers that be were in the we're all dead state of mind and I ask, based on what?

COVID-19 is more contagious than the flu and has a fairly higher fatality rate. And, of course, it can be spread asymptomatically. Do the math.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/01/health/flu-vs-coronavirus-deaths/index.html

 

[El OchoCinco]

here is a contrary thought as well...

As bad as the lockdown is, the horrible negative economic effects of the shutdowns is also being overblown and over exxagerated. I heard the same crap during the tech crisis and the housing market crash. Economies adapt and change and unemployed get reabsrobed when the clouds clear.

Plenty of unemployment were places immediately firing people to allow them to go to unemployment and make more money then stay on a payroll the owners were going to have trouble making. If States can get their act in gear in the next 3 weeks we should see a mini reversal.