No, but the people making them up do.
The Experts, Media and Covid Doomsayers were wrong about Florida
- Thread starter Tsing Tao
- Start date
No, but the people making them up do.
omg the modeling involved here...
I've done my share of curve fitting. I wrote the telemetry calibration handbook for a NASA satellite mission. So I've run thousands of linear regressions and generated fit polynomials for JPL to uses in its telemetry database to convert telemetry signals to physical values.
When you fit a curve you want the lowest order polynomial that reasonably gets the job done. When you take it to higher orders the fit is tighter but the function can do some weird things in between data points and when extrapolated outside of the data.
I honestly think we'd have learned more from a low-order fit to the existing data. Some of the projections I've seen the last few weeks were really bad. Analysis and modeling is getting a bad name when it actually can work.
I've done my share of curve fitting. I wrote the telemetry calibration handbook for a NASA satellite mission. So I've run thousands of linear regressions and generated fit polynomials for JPL to uses in its telemetry database to convert telemetry signals to physical values.
When you fit a curve you want the lowest order polynomial that reasonably gets the job done. When you take it to higher orders the fit is tighter but the function can do some weird things in between data points and when extrapolated outside of the data.
I honestly think we'd have learned more from a low-order fit to the existing data. Some of the projections I've seen the last few weeks were really bad. Analysis and modeling is getting a bad name when it actually can work.
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Typical approach of a poor person mind you. Can I do it in installments? (ignoring the total repayment cost).
You don't get a little bit pregnant and you don't take a slowly slowly approach to an exponentially spreading contagion.
You slow it and get your ducks in order.
What then about the total repayment cost of the "solution" which was implemented? Will that be sloved all at once, or incrementally, you know like installments? Just a poor person asking.
Maybe you are, but I'm not. I live in Quebec, and am royally pissed at the absurdity of Canada's worst affected province being the most aggressive at reopening. That is some kind of stupid!
Anyone who says modeling can't work is an ass. Of course it can work.
The problem is when someone driving a narrative is also creating a model. They're going to see the data they want and ignore or dismiss that which goes against their desired narrative. The so-called Confirmation Bias.
Then there is modeling something that is unprecedented and requires a lot of assumptions.
I see your edit. Slowing it and getting the ducks in order is exactly what I am suggesting was not done, and little thougt was given to the total cost of a quick and dirty shutdown. See, we agree. The installment plan will be implemented as oppressive taxes for years to come
Oh look, the resident google image poster. Do you ever have anything useful to say? Weren't you taking a break from ET to read your nursery books?
Hairy armpits and patchouli oil crowd tend to stay indoors, SoCal not so much.
CA only has... 2254 deaths...
And 55,000 confirmed cases.
San Diego only has 144 deaths
Orange County 57.
https://www.google.com/search?q=how...69i57j69i64.5231j0j7&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8
40 million plus probably at least 10 million more illegals.
CA should should never have closed for low risk groups.
And many in CA really despise Gov. Newsome right now.
Social media is lit up. Now it may be a minority of people but as I said we are a outdoor culture and he got massive pushback on beach closures in So CA... and had to back down.
And 55,000 confirmed cases.
San Diego only has 144 deaths
Orange County 57.
https://www.google.com/search?q=how...69i57j69i64.5231j0j7&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8
40 million plus probably at least 10 million more illegals.
CA should should never have closed for low risk groups.
And many in CA really despise Gov. Newsome right now.
Social media is lit up. Now it may be a minority of people but as I said we are a outdoor culture and he got massive pushback on beach closures in So CA... and had to back down.