If ICE's stand still themselves technology-wise - which if the past is any indication both ICE's and EV's have not.
The EV transition is real
- Thread starter VicBee
- Start date
I could not agree more. The problem is that elites claim that "net-zero" can be achieved at no cost, or can even be a source of profits and economic growth. This is obviously nonsense. The most honest and market-friendly approach would be heavy carbon and pollution taxes commensurate with the environmental costs imposed by said pollution; but that would cause the cost of everything to skyrocket, to the extent that everything from plastic bottles to disposable diapers to suburbia, air travel, and Amazon deliveries would become unaffordable for most people.
That's why it will never happen, and we'll instead keep screwing around with the nonsense that rooftop solar and "a Tesla in every garage" will actually make a material difference.
My advice is to put razor wire on the borders, and get away from places like South Florida while the gettin's good.
Yeah? Good luck with that... You cannot bring an ICE vehicle in CA unless it meets stringent CA Carb rules. The retrofit can get pretty expensive but some cars (classics and exotics ) are worth the trouble. As I've said before and you've pointed out about EVs, it's not just the powertrain being in question, it's the entire supply chain.
Sure, there will be plenty of ICE vehicles operating in CA after 2035, but no new vehicles. So what will it look like in 2045? With avg ownership of 8 years and avg vehicle lifespan of 12 years, in 2045 you can expect 50-80% (?) of vehicle driven will be EVs.
With those numbers you can expect many fewer gas stations, garages, parts stores and the price of gas to double, further reducing the incentive to own an ICE vehicle. That simple.
"Only" 12 states adopted Section 177 of the Clean Air Act? Lol.. that's nearly half the US population!
https://www.transportpolicy.net/standard/us-section-177-states/
We can argue about how long it will take America to transition to an 80% EV park, but the foreseeable future is not in your camp.
I have personal experience what happens when gubmint tries to fack with the free market of autos when I moved here to South Florida more than 30 years ago.
There was an impact fee on vehicles that were bought out of state and then registered here, to "help" the local economy of in state dealerships plus of course help fill the state coffers with the revenue generated. More, more, more.
What happened? Some bit the bullet and registered. Many keep their out of state plates, as I did. Till a big enough uproar that, years later, they saw the folly of it and rescinded it.
For me TWT what will happen. You OTOH know exactly the final outcome before the rest of the us.
2035 is a lifetime away. For all I know, by then CA may turn back into a Republican state again and rescinds the ban.
Democracy is messy, fiat doesn't work, a consensus is needed to move forward. Economic/market force has to be a part of the equation.
Yes, who knows. I believe that everyone's greatest desire is to predict the future. Some spend enormous resources to reach that goal, from market whales to military strategists, AI development (Teslas FSD), to two bits gamblers...
@VicBee would be happy to read this, you can charge an EV car battery from 10% to 80% in 5 minutes:
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cz9dp3ye77do
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cz9dp3ye77do
I think a lot of ICE drivers get really hung up on that "charge time" thing. I have a Tesla and it's really comparing apples to oranges in charging vs filling up the tank. In ICE vehicles people go fill up the tank whenever they get low. Tesla drivers aren't like that. We plug it in when we get home from doing whatever driving we were doing all day and it's fully charged when we wake up. I'd even argue that its ICE drivers spending more time to fill up because they have to drive to the gas station, wait in line for 5 to 10 minutes if you go to the cheap costco gas, then spend another few minutes filling up. Tesla drivers spend less than 5 seconds plugging their car in.
And I know some people will say "well what about road trips?" As if you all are going on tours across the US every month. Majority of people take maybe 1 or 2 road trips per year. Its a non-issue.
The point is that with an ICE car, if you need to go on a 600 mile road trip then immediately turn back around and evacuate because a hurricane is heading your way or the Russians are attacking, tossing a couple of portable gas cans in the trunk to extend range on an emergency basis, you can do it.
A likely scenario? No. But neither is your house burning down, and you still pay for home insurance. I don’t fancy spending $50,000+ on a toy to feel good about how progressive I am which could be utterly useless when I really, really needed it.
In any case, actual sustainability (as opposed to virtue-signaling masturbation) is about driving less, or not at all, and building more liveable/walkable places where that’s possible. We only put about 4,000 miles per year on the car.
A majority of EV people don't have the charge-at-home option. Think about that?